Overview
Since my last report in early May, the race between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump has grown tighter, which is particularly clear in national polling. A month ago, Clinton held a lead of roughly seven points according to Huffington Post Pollster’s model; now her lead is less than five points (and indeed some polls have shown Trump ahead). Despite this, there are no big shifts in the predictions, as I was expecting some tightening to occur—you could say that it was already baked in to last month’s projection. My ratings are not an attempt to show the results if the election were held today, but rather a prediction for how things will turn out on Election Day.
However, Hillary has had a little more trouble rallying her base, and Trump a little less trouble consolidating his, than I had expected, and as a result a couple of blue states shift slightly in his direction—they may be more competitive than I had previously thought. One red state is also growing more competitive this month, as evidenced by several polls indicating a close race.
I expect the general state of the race to be much the same next month as it is today. If anything, Hillary’s numbers may improve slightly as skeptical Sanders supporters start to come around.
Definitions
Safe: the favored party's candidate is extremely likely to win this state, even if the opponent wins in landslide nationally (99-100% chance the favored party will win this state in 2016)
Solid: the favored party's candidate is extremely likely to win this state, except in a wave election the other way (90-98% chance)
Likely: the favored party's candidate is likely to win this state (75-89% chance)
Lean: the favored party's candidate has the advantage, but this state could go either way (60-74% chance)
Edge: this is a tossup state, but I believe one party/candidate has a slight advantage (50-59% chance)
Current Projection
Hillary Clinton: 332 Electoral Votes
Donald Trump: 206 Electoral Votes
(270 Electoral Votes needed to win)
State-by-State Forecast Changes and Updates
New Hampshire changes to Likely Democrat (from Solid Democrat). The state was polled three times in May, and each poll had a much closer race than most earlier polling had indicated. Dartmouth College (5/4) had Clinton up by 5%, but with 37% undecided. WBUR (5/18) had the race within 2%, and Franklin Pierce/Boston Herald (5/30) is showing a tie.
Georgia changes to Likely Republican (from Solid Republican). Georgia was polled four times in May. All four showed Trump up by single digits; three of the four had the margin less than 5%.
Nevada changes to Lean Democrat (from Likely Democrat). There’s now new polling here, but Nevada will probably be competitive, and the chaos at the state party convention indicates that Hillary may have some trouble winning over Sanders supporters.
Pennsylvania is worth mentioning as it’s right on the cusp of slipping to Lean Democrat, due to tight polling (in the most recent poll, Quinnipiac has Clinton up by only 1%) and anecdotal reports that the Pennsylvania GOP seems to be rallying around Trump. I’m leaving it as Likely for now. It’s a state where the margin will probably be narrow, but I expect it will be very difficult for Trump to actually pull ahead, unless turnout on the Democratic side is low.
Electoral Vote Scorecard
Safe Democratic states: 165 EVs — CA, CT, DC, DE, HI, IL, MD, MA, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA
Solid Democratic states: 49 EVs — ME, MI, MN, NJ, NM
Likely Democratic states: 34 EVs — PA, NH, WI
Lean Democratic states: 34 EVs — CO, IA, NV, VA
Edge Democratic states: 47 EVs — FL, OH
Edge Republican states: 15 EVs — NC
Lean Republican states: 0 EVs
Likely Republican states: 27 EVs — AZ, GA
Solid Republican states: 39 EVs — AK, AR, IN, MO, MT, UT
Safe Republican states: 125 EVs — AL, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, WV, WY
Things to Watch in the Coming Month
I think the key numbers to watch at this stage, even more than head-to-head polling between Clinton and Trump, are these:
- Clinton’s favorability ratings: currently she’s at 41%, down from around 50% two years ago. If her ratings start to go up, her winning the election starts to look like a much safer bet. If they sink lower than Trump’s, then there would be real reason for concern.
- Trump’s favorability ratings: right now he sits at about 38%. He’s been stuck in the 30’s since last July and has seen very modest improvements over that period (mostly since he became the presumptive nominee). They’ll probably go up a bit further (people who are grudgingly supporting him now will start to find reasons to like him), but if they instead sink even lower, we could be looking at a landslide.
- Obama’s approval ratings: 50% is the magic number; it’s not likely his party will lose the election if he’s above 50%. Right now he’s at 49.8%, according to HuffPo Pollster. His numbers are a bit lower on the issue of the economy, which is worth watching, too.
- Which brings us to economic data, in particular the unemployment rate and the stock market. If the economy is slumping, voters may be more likely to take a risk on a candidate like Donald Trump.
Other Prognosticators
Sam Wang of the Princeton Election Consortium published a snapshot on 5/31 showing Clinton leading by 4%, and projected to win 336 EVs. Since then, Clinton’s EV total has fallen to 321 (apparently North Carolina has switched to Trump, based on new polling there). Her “meta-margin” is 4.0%...that’s how much polls would have to shift between now and Election Day in order for her to lose. Wang estimates that based on these current numbers, her chances of winning in November are 70%.
PredictWise shows the Democratic Party’s likelihood of winning the election at 69%, basically unchanged from a month ago. Clinton still is expected to win the key states of Virginia, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Nevada, Iowa, Ohio, and Florida, with probabilities for each ranging from 60% to 75%.
The Blogging Caesar continues to show Clinton ahead, currently with 334 EVs to Trump’s 204 (he has Clinton leading in Arizona and Trump ahead in Colorado).
Cook Political Report, as of 5/27, has 304 Electoral Votes in Clinton’s column and 190 in Trump’s. Iowa, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Ohio, as well as Nebraska’s second district, are all toss-ups, but Clinton can win without any of them.
Rothenberg & Gonzales, as of 5/19, has Clinton with 332, Trump with 191, and North Carolina as a toss-up.
New to this list, NPR’s Domenico Montanaro, as of 5/10, projects that Clinton has exactly 270 and Trump has 191 Electoral Votes. Five states (Colorado, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, and Ohio) are toss-ups.