Why it seems obvious to me that Hillary Clinton will be the next President.
1. She has the experience and knows enough to surround herself with good people. Compared with Bill, she is the smarter of the two. We are all more than a little curious to see how Bill performs when he is once again on the national stage. This time in a supporting role, but with the gravitas that comes from being an elder statesman, past President, and, one can hope, with an old man’s libido.
2. The old adage that a woman has to work twice as hard and be twice as successful to be thought half as good as a man applies here. Hillary is an eminently qualified candidate and when she is no longer required to battle for the nomination and can focus on Republicans and Trump, her message will resonate. The choice between Clinton and Trump will be stark.
3. Importantly, the election will also be seen as a referendum on Obama and his legacy. Clinton is staying close to Obama’s message and agenda for the country. People generally like Obama and a plurality appreciate what he has done and overcome, especially when dealing with obviously unprincipled obstructionists.
4. It is also a referendum on Mitch McConnell’s desire to make Obama a one-term President. The American voter needs to let McConnell, and Republicans who supported that strategy, know that they would take Obama a third time, just to rub salt into McConnell’s petulant wound.
5. Moderate and rational Republicans do not like Trump’s base. They will stay home or vote for Clinton, if only to give them a decent chance of rebuilding their party after what will be a shellacking. The upside is that the uninformed base that are Trump supporters will no longer have any political momentum or durability and be returned to their historic place, supporting the duly appointed and anointed Republican establishment.
6. Latinos, the LGBT community, other minorities, and women will not support Trump to any notable degree. As long as Trump has breath and continues to utter any tortured syntax, Clinton will shine by simple comparison.
7. Blue collar Republicans will (with a blue collar background this is my wishful thinking here), realize Trump is the stupid, entitled, frat boy from school who has a lot of Daddy’s money but no brains. He is not someone they would have a beer with, ever. One can hope that that they will get past their lifestyle of perpetual anger and grievance and begin voting in their true best interests.
8. Clinton, with Obama, will help Democrats regain the Senate. The House may be in play, although gerrymandering makes the flip unlikely.
9. People will prefer that Clinton (or Obama) pick the replacement for Scalia and this SC nominee will be on the center-left of the spectrum, which a plurality of Americans will support. The dynamic of the SC will change for the foreseeable future giving hope to all progressive causes. The a Democratic majority in the Senate will then finally be able to do its job, even as McConnell’s head explodes and the long knives come out in judgement of his failed stewardship.
It is obvious that none of this is scientific in any way. Just full of feeling and wishful thinking. However, as the months move on, I will do what I have done over the past couple cycles: follow Nate Silver and 538. The polls capture the mood and voters’ intentions and Silver’s mathematical and scientific approach to polling will tell us all just how accurate our wishful thinking and feelings were. With 538 (and the Kos version too) we will know what is going to happen before it does.
I believe I am not alone when I say that I hope it is the most crushing of defeats for the Republicans. For Clinton, as it was for Obama, it would be marvelous if she received a super majority in the senate and a majority in the House. Even if it were to be for only two years, more great things could be accomplished. I have no doubt that eight years of Clinton following eight years of Obama, the uninsured, minorities, students, and the working and middle class Americans would benefit and a kind, compassionate and caring America would become even further entrenched and protected by legislation and law.