On Tuesday, voters in California, Iowa, New Jersey, and North Carolina will cast ballots for their state’s downballot primaries. (Montana, New Mexico, and South Dakota are also up, but there isn’t much to see there.) Below is our look at the key races to watch. The first polls will close at 7:30 PM ET in North Carolina, and as always, we’ll be liveblogging all the results at Daily Kos Elections.
● CA-24: Under California election law, all candidates run on the same ballot in what is known as a "top-two primary," where the two candidates with the most votes advance to the November general election, regardless of party. The most compelling such primary is in California’s 24th Congressional District, an open seat in the Santa Barbara area that Barack Obama won 54-43. However, both sides seem to believe that there’s a good chance that two Republicans, Assemblyman Katcho Achadjian and businessman Justin Fareed, could advance to the general election and give Team Red an automatic pickup here.
Fearing such a scenario, the DCCC and the pro-Democratic House Majority PAC have been spending big to help their preferred candidate, Santa Barbara County Supervisor Salud Carbajal, who has also been endorsed by retiring Rep. Lois Capps. Meanwhile, the NRCC recently launched a $220,000 buy that hit Carbajal while simultaneously trying to boost his Democratic rival, Santa Barbara Mayor Helene Schneider, in an effort to split the left-leaning vote. Carbajal is a strong fundraiser and he’s been saturating the district with ads. If he fails to make it to November, it would represent a major humiliation for Democrats, but it would also serve as a rebuke to the supposed “good government” reformers who foisted this system on California, which is poised to deny voters in a blue district the chance to vote for a Democrat.
● CA-Sen: Unless every single released poll is wrong, two Democrats will move on to the November general election in the race to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer, who was famously first elected in 1992, the “Year of the of Woman.” State Attorney General Kamala Harris has the support of influential state and national Democrats alike, including Gov. Jerry Brown and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and she has the largest warchest. However, Rep. Loretta Sanchez has a base of support in Southern California, and polls show her taking the second general election spot. Several little-known and badly-funded Republicans are running, and none of them appear to be consolidating enough conservative support to get past Sanchez. The same polls also show that Harris would start out with an edge over Sanchez in the general.
● CA-21: Republican Rep. David Valadao has easily won two terms in this Central Valley seat, even though Obama won it 55-44. Valadao’s success has been due in equal measures to poor Democratic recruitment as well as a massive dropoff in midterm turnout among Latinos, who make up the vast majority of this district. Democrats are hoping that 2016 will change things, though, particularly if Donald Trump fires up a serious backlash among Latino voters. Two Democrats are competing to face Valadao. Attorney Emilio Huerta, the son of labor leader Dolores Huerta, hasn’t been a particularly strong fundraiser, but Fowler Councilor Daniel Parra is in much worse shape financially, and Republicans have been trying to help Parra get past Huerta, since Valadao would much rather face the former than the latter.
● CA-25: National Democrats plan to target freshman Republican Rep. Steve Knight in this 50-48 Romney seat in northern Los Angeles County, and they’re waiting to see if their favored candidate will make it to November. Attorney Bryan Caforio has the backing of the DCCC, and he’s decisively outspent fellow Democrat Lou Vince, a former LAPD officer; Caforio also has several major unions in his corner. However, Vince has the formal backing of the state Democratic Party, which could give him a boost because the sample ballot sent to all voters identifies all party-endorsed candidates as such. Vince has proven to be a very weak fundraiser, and there’s a good chance DC Democrats will lose interest in this race if he edges out Caforio.
● CA-44: Rep. Janice Hahn is leaving behind this dark blue seat to run for the powerful Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors, and she’s endorsed state Sen. Isadore Hall to succeed her. There isn’t much doubt that Hall, who represents about 60 percent of this seat in the legislature, will grab one of the two general election spots, but it’s unclear who his opponent will be.
Fellow Democrat Nanette Barragan, the former mayor of Hermosa Beach, has spent more cash than any other candidate except Hall, and she may be able to consolidate enough support from the district’s large Latino population to take the second-place spot. However, Hermosa Beach is actually located in a neighboring district, so most of the people who’ve voted for Barragan in the past can’t do so now. If Hall gets to face another candidate in November, he’ll be the overwhelming favorite, but Barragan may have the resources to give him a tough time in the fall.
● CA-46: Three Democrats are competing to succeed Senate candidate Loretta Sanchez in this safely blue Orange County seat. Ex-state Sen. Lou Correa represented about 75 percent of this turf until 2014, and he has the support of several neighboring House members; Correa has also outspent his opponents.
Joe Dunn, who held Correa’s old seat until 2006, has the support of several powerful labor groups, and he’s also spent a credible amount of cash. However, Dunn was fired from his job as executive director of the State Bar of California in 2014, and he’s been involved in a messy lawsuit with them. Garden Grove Mayor Bao Nguyen doesn’t have much cash, and most of his city is in another seat. But Nguyen is the most prominent elected official in California to endorse Bernie Sanders, and if Nguyen can consolidate Sanders’ supporters, he could have a good shot at advancing. Four Republicans and one independent are also in. It’s unclear whether two Democrats will make it to the general, or if one Republican will grab one of the top two spots instead, but even the latter scenario would still just be a booby prize for the GOP.
● IA-Sen (D): Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley has never struggled with re-election in this swing state, but Democrats hope that Grassley’s high profile role in the GOP’s Supreme Court blockade will give them an opening. The DSCC has endorsed ex-Lt. Gov. Patty Judge, who is the only Democratic candidate airing any ads here. However, most Democratic legislatures and several labor groups are backing state Sen. Rob Hogg, though Hogg has been a weak fundraiser. A few minor Democrats are also running. If no one takes at least 35 percent of the vote, the nomination will be decided at the state party convention late this month. However, two recent polls show Judge defeating Hogg.
● IA-01 (D): Freshman Republican Rep. Rod Blum narrowly defeated Democrat Pat Murphy, a former state House speaker, during the 2014 GOP wave in this 56-43 Obama seat, and Murphy is seeking a rematch. However, national Democrats and several labor groups have consolidated behind former Cedar Rapids City Councilor Monica Vernon. Murphy defeated Vernon in the 2014 primary, but Vernon has heavily outspent him this time, and she’s also receiving air support from EMILY’s List.
● IA-03 (D): Freshman Republican Rep. David Young will be a Democratic target in this 51-47 Obama seat, and there’s an expensive Democratic primary to face him. Veteran Jim Mowrer, who was Team Blue’s nominee in the 4th District in 2014, and wealthy investor Mike Sherzan have both spent a comparable amount of cash. However, Mowrer recently went up with a TV spot that argued that Sherzan tried to weaken the Dodd-Frank banking reform laws, a sign that Mowrer doesn’t feel great about the primary. Sherzan soon released a poll giving himself a 43-29 lead, while Mowrer’s poll showed the two locked in a dead heat. Businessman Desmund Adams is also in, but he's raised and spent very little.
● NC-02 (R): You thought North Carolina already held its primaries this year, didn’t you? Don’t worry, you’re not wrong—it did. But because of a late-in-the-game court ruling that forced Republicans to redraw the state’s congressional map earlier this year, legislators decided to conduct two separate primaries: the regularly scheduled one in March, plus a new one in June just for the House. And to shorten election season, they also temporarily did away with the state’s usual runoffs, which normally are held if no candidate clears 40 percent of the vote (they’ll be back next cycle).
As a result of the court’s redistricting order, GOP Reps. George Holding and Renee Ellmers were drawn into the same safely red Raleigh-area seat. However, it’s Holding who holds all the cards. Holding represents much more of the seat than Ellmers; he’s outspent the congresswoman; and outside spending has almost completely favored him. In fact, conservatives are eager to see Ellmers, who was once the epitome of a tea party outsider, ousted from Congress after a series of apostasies. Ellmers received Donald Trump’s endorsement over the weekend, but it probably came too late to change the direction of this contest. Underfunded tea partying physician Greg Brannon is also running but isn’t a major factor.
● NC-03 (R): Republican Rep. Walter Jones has a habit of pissing off his party’s leadership, especially when it comes to foreign policy. Last cycle, ex-Treasury aide Taylor Griffin lost to Jones by a narrow 51-45 margin, and Griffin is back for a rematch. However, while several national security-focused groups ran ads against Jones last time, they’ve stayed out of this year’s contest, which probably isn’t a good sign for the challenger. This has been a low-energy contest without much spending from either side. Retired Marine Phil Law is also in. This coastal seat is safely red.
● NC-09 (R): While Rep. Robert Pittenger is seeking renomination in a safely red Charlotte-area seat that's about 60 percent new to him, he seems to have the clear edge on Tuesday. Pittenger faces two primary opponents, minister and 2014 Senate candidate Mark Harris, and ex-Union County Commissioner Todd Johnson, and they may split the vote too much to stop Pittenger from winning. Pittenger has outspent both his opponents, though he and Harris have both been airing negative spots against one another. There is currently an FBI investigation under way looking into allegations that Pittenger improperly transferred money from his former real estate company into his 2012 campaign. However, while Harris has alluded to the investigation in his web ads, he hasn’t focused on it much.
● NC-12 (D): Redistricting threw freshman Democratic Rep. Alma Adams’ Greensboro base into a red seat (see our NC-13 writeup below), so she decided to seek re-election in the redrawn 12th District, which is now based around Charlotte. Adams currently represents about half the new seat, but she faces three Charlotte politicians who’ve been hoping voters wind up regarding Adams as a carpetbagger—and Adams hasn’t exactly helped her own cause.
Ex-state Sen. Malcolm Graham lost to Adams 44-24 in the primary for the old seat in 2014, but he did beat her 43-17 in Charlotte’s Mecklenburg County (the new 12th is entirely in Mecklenburg). State Rep. Tricia Cotham is the only white candidate; whites make up 47 percent of the district's voting-age population (but likely a smaller share of the Democratic primary electorate), and if voting breaks down along racial lines, Cotham could win with a plurality. State Rep. Carla Cunningham is also in the mix, but she has little money and probably faces the toughest odds.
Adams has decisively outspent all three of her foes on TV. However, while Adams announced in April that she had moved from Greensboro to Charlotte, a local news network recently found that Adams was still spending time at her old Greensboro home, and Adams has not provided a clear answer about where she lives now. This seat is safely blue.
● NC-13 (R): The state legislature created a new conservative seat stretching from Greensboro to the Charlotte area, and 17 Republicans are seeking it. None of the contenders have spent much money, but outside groups have gotten involved for two candidates. The anti-tax organization the Club for Growth has been airing ads for gun range owner Ted Budd, while the National Association of Realtors has spent a smaller sum on state Rep. Julia Howard, the primary sponsor of North Carolina’s notorious new anti-LGBT law that has brought the state national condemnation. But in a field this huge, anything can happen.
● NJ-01 (D): Until recently, freshman Democratic Rep. Donald Norcross looked safe against 25-year-old activist Alex Law in this safely blue South Jersey seat. Law has raised very little money while Norcross is the brother of powerful South Jersey political boss George Norcross. However, Norcross’ and his allies seem to be taking Law seriously. Norcross recently loaned his campaign $235,000 of his own money, a sign that this contest isn’t as one-sided as it initially looked. The Democratic group Patriot Majority also spent $150,000 on mailers for the incumbent, while President Obama also endorsed him in the last week of the campaign. Even if they don’t think Law can win, Norcross and his friends may be worried that a weak victory could encourage a stronger primary opponent in the future.
● NJ-07 (R): If Republican Rep. Leonard Lance has trouble in Tuesday's primary, it won't be because he drew an impressive array of opponents. Lance, a relative moderate, defeated perennial candidate David Larsen just 54-46 in 2014, and Larsen is back for another round. But while Larsen loaned his campaign $225,000, he spent just $53,000 from April 1 to May 18. Lance has been airing a few ads here, and he dropped $267,000 during this time. Two years ago, Lance outspent Larsen $138,000 to $29,000 in the pre-primary period, so he seems to be taking this matchup more seriously.
Another Republican candidate, Craig Heard, is also in—and he could cost Larsen some anti-Lance votes. Heard has aired a few cheap ads but while he said he was putting "six figures" behind them, Heard spent just $24,000 in the pre-primary period; shockingly, politicians sometimes lie. This seat backed Romney 53-46, and Democrats aren't making a play for it.
