In a newly published exit poll of over 13,000 early absentee voters in the California primary by the respected Capitol Weekly, Hillary Clinton has a whopping lead of 56-44% over Bernie Sanders. Her lead is built on her strength in the most populous parts of the state those being the San Francisco Bay Area and the Los Angeles basin. In addition, the early primary vote thus far is around 2.8 million voters substantially higher than the 1.8 million at the same point prior to Election Day 2008. Furthermore, the share of independent votes in the Democratic primary is low perhaps driven by some confusion over the process as this report suggests. Also, younger voters represent only 10% of ballots cast thus far which is also considered low.
Based on all this, the report concludes it will be difficult for Sanders to overcome this early lead on Election Day:
Sanders has maintained that he will win the state even though the demographics are not a strong match for the states in which he’s been strongest. These results indicate it will require a primary election day voter turnout considerably larger than any we’ve seen recently, among groups who historically are the least likely primary voters.
Exit Poll