Until a few days ago, Republican Rep. Darrell Issa looked as safe as always in California’s 49th District, a San Diego-area seat that Mitt Romney carried by a 52-46 margin. However, in Tuesday’s top-two primary, Issa only outpaced little-known Democrat Doug Applegate, a retired Marine, 51-45. Issa and Applegate will meet again in the November general election.
So is Issa vulnerable here? As we’ve warned before, it's risky to try and use the top-two primary as a predictor of what will happen in the fall. Interest was much higher on Tuesday for California’s Democratic presidential race than it was for the GOP contest, and it’s possible that Issa’s 51 percent was just his low-water mark. And if Issa does feel threatened, he can easily respond. Issa is the wealthiest member of the House, while Applegate had just $14,000 on-hand at the end of May.
The big question will be if Applegate’s unexpectedly strong performance encourages national Democrats to help him. If Democratic donors take an interest in this contest and groups like the DCCC and House Majority PAC start to make ad reservations here, then we’ll know that they’re taking the possibility of an Issa loss seriously. But if Applegate continues to bring in little cash and receive no air support, it’s a good sign that national Democrats just see his performance as a top-two fluke and don’t think Issa is beatable. Daily Kos Elections currently rates this seat Safe Republican, but we’ll keep an eye out for developments.