We are less than 4 months out from Election Day and the Senate outlook for Democrats is looking optimistic while still cautious. A recurring theme this cycle has been what down ballot effect will the Presidential race have on key Senate races across the country. Neither party nominee is exactly popular, but Donald Trump has run a toxic campaign that has Purple and Blue State Republicans separating themselves from him at all costs, in a similar fashion to how Red State Democrats attempted to distance themselves from Obama in 2010 and 2014, and we all know how well that worked out. The simple fact is that mainstream voters 9 times out of 10 will associate the party’s Presidential nominee with the rest of the ticket, which could prove disaster for Republicans in competitive Senate races as they try to maintain their grip on the upper chamber. The question will be if independents and moderates who are Republican-leaning will make the judgment call on if Republicans deserve to be cast out for being the Party of Trump or if they will consider the Presidential and Senate races to be two entirely different entities. The Senate landscape, however, looks pretty bleak for Republicans. Of the 34 seats up, 24 are under Republican control while only 10 are under Democratic control. Unlike in 2014, there are no Democrats up for reelection this cycle in a state won by Mitt Romney. There are, however, 7 Republican-held seats in states that Obama won in 2012. There are also 5 Republican-held seats in states that Obama came close to or won narrowly in 2008, a great year for Democrats. Democrats are largely on offense this year as they try to gain at least 4 Republican-held seats. Of the seats Democrats have to defend, only two are anywhere even remotely competitive for Republicans to compete in. I will also include candidates’ ActBlue accounts for those who may want to contribute. Continue reading below the fold as I take a Deep Dive into the Senate landscape and discuss each competitive race thoroughly.
Defense: These are seats that Democrats are defending from GOP takeovers.
Colorado: Democratic Senator Michael Bennet initially looked like he could face a top-tier GOP challenger in the form of Arapahoe County District Attorney George Brauchler or Reps. Mike Coffman and Scott Tipton. After they all declined, Republicans were left with a crowded field of lesser-known candidates. While former Colorado State University Athletic Director Jack Graham had the ability to self-fund his campaign, Republicans opted for conservative firebrand and El Paso County Commissioner Darryl Glenn. Glenn has been running for this seat for almost 2 years now, but has only a pitiful sum of $50,000 cash on hand, which is terrible for a Republican in a competitive state. Some of that money has went to his daughter, who until recently was working for his campaign as an unpaid staffer. While Glenn delivered a fiery speech at the state GOP convention and managed to win the caucus vote by a large margin, he has no paid staff in the state and is running a campaign solely based on volunteers. While Glenn did earn an endorsement from Ted Cruz and the Senate Conservatives Fund has promised to run ads for him, it is hard to see Republicans pouring resources into this race when they are trying to defend incumbents elsewhere. The NRSC hasn’t reserved any air time here, a good indication Republicans are likely to forget this race in the fall. For his part, Bennet has a hefty $12 million dollar war chest at his disposal. Bennet is likely to benefit with the Presidential race atop the ticket with a likely Clinton victory due to the swingy nature of the state and the growing Latino population that is adamantly against Trump. It looks like Bennet will bury Glenn on the airwaves, unless Glenn is able to receive an assist from outside conservative groups or steps up his fundraising. For now, I can’t see that happening, and Glenn is likely to perform no better than Generic Republican. Polling has been scarce here, but even Republican pollsters have shown Bennet with a double digit lead. Races of course tighten in the final weeks of the campaign in purple states, but it’s just hard seeing Glenn getting any more than 45% of the vote. I currently rate this race as Likely Democratic, although it could soon find itself in the Safe column. To donate to Bennet, click here: secure.actblue.com/...
Poll Source |
Date(s) Administered |
SAMPLE SIZE |
MARGIN OF ERROR |
Michael bENNET (d) |
DARRYL GLENN (R) |
Undecided |
COLORADO POLLS
Fox News |
JULY 9-12, 2016
|
600
|
4.0%
|
51%
|
36%
|
9%
|
MONMOUTH UNIVERSITY
|
JULY 9-12, 2016
|
404
|
4.9%
|
48%
|
35%
|
12%
|
Nevada: Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid’s departure has sparked a competitive race for his open seat, which is the only real pickup opportunity for Republicans this cycle. Democrats have coalesced around former Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto, while Republicans are united behind Rep. Joe Heck. Cortez Masto has already won statewide with ease twice during her time as Attorney General for the state from 2007-2015. Even in the 2010 Republican wave she managed to win with 53%, albeit she was running against an underfunded challenger, and that certainly won’t be the case this time around in this swingy state. Heck also has experience winning in swingy turf. He rode the 2010 wave by unseating a Democratic incumbent and then beat back two Democratic challengers in 2012 and 2014 with ease despite Obama carrying his district narrowly. Heck, however, is at a disadvantage in running statewide in a Presidential year in a state Trump is expected to do very poorly in. The Latino population in Nevada is growing at a large rate, and that can only benefit Cortez Masto, who is hoping to be the first Latina to serve in the Senate. Both candidates will have the funds needed to run aggressive campaigns. Heck currently holds a $4.8 to $3.4 million cash on hand advantage over Cortez Masto. Outside groups are expecting to spend heavily here. Both the DSCC and NRSC have reserved airtime here, while other groups like the Senate Majority PAC, EMILY’s List, League of Conservation Voters, the Club for Growth, and the aforementioned Senate Conservatives Fund will also devote time and money here. Polling has indicated both candidates are neck and neck. I currently rate this race as a Tossup, and I am expecting that rating to stay the same all the way to Election Day. To donate to Cortez Masto, click here: secure.actblue.com/...
NEVADA POLLS
POLL SOURCE |
dATE(S) ADMINISTERED |
SAMPLE SIZE |
MARGIN OF ERROR |
CATHERINE CORTEZ MASTO (D) |
JOE HECK (R) |
UNDECIDED |
MONMOUTH UNIVERSITY |
JULY 7-10, 2016
|
408
|
4.9%
|
40%
|
42%
|
7%
|
GRAVIS MARKETING
|
FEBRUARY 14-15, 2015
|
1,366
|
3.0%
|
41%
|
44%
|
15%
|
Prime Pickups: These are Republican-held seats ripe for a Democratic takeover.
Florida: Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy looked poised to pickup this seat for Team Blue after a field of uninspiring Republicans impressed no one. But alas, GOP Sen. Marco Rubio’s late re-entry into this contest after his failed Presidential run has made Democratic chances of winning this seat much more difficult. Both Murphy and Rubio also have primaries on August 30th, although both are expected to prevail unless Republican rich guy Carlos Beruff and loose cannon Democratic Rep. Alan Grayson can score major upsets. For now, I expect Murphy and Rubio to be their party’s respective nominees and will analyze this race as such. A lot of Democrats have become pessimistic about Murphy’s chances against Rubio, especially given recent bad press Murphy has received with allegations that he lied about his resume as a CPA and is nothing more than a spoiled rich kid. Murphy has beat back, claiming the attacks on his resume are false. For what it’s worth, he is a licensed CPA, but the longevity of that career for Murphy wasn’t a long one before he decided to run for office back in 2012. Personally, I’m not sure voters care that much one way or the other, especially by November when those hits will be long forgotten. Historically, things like this tend to fade into the back of voters’ minds. But Rubio isn’t exactly Mr. Invincible. He largely only won in 2010 because of a three way race that split the Democratic vote, and he is just coming off a bruising primary against Trump in which he embarrassingly lost his home state and only carried his base in South Florida. The Presidential primary is likely still fresh on many voters’ minds, and if far-right conservatives won’t hold their nose for the establishment Golden Boy they could just leave the section blank or protest vote for a third party. Murphy has raised $7 million dollars but some of that will be spent for the primary. Meanwhile, Rubio managed to raise $2 million in the 9 days of his campaign before the fundraising deadline, so he will be able to makeup his deficit soon enough thanks to his national fundraising network from his run for President. Outside groups are also expected to spend big here. At the top of the ticket, Clinton is likely to perform well in Florida thanks to the state’s diverse population and dislike for Trump. If Clinton is carrying the state by a few points, Murphy could ride her coattails. Rubio’s biggest strength comes from his home of Miami, where Trump will likely lose big to Clinton but will probably still benefit from ticket splitters from the Cuban American population that is ancestrally Republican. However, recent data has shown that the younger Cuban American population is trending Democratic. Polling has indicated a close race even with the re-entry of Rubio, so I maintain the rating of Tossup. If one of the frontrunners is upset by their primary challenger, I will revisit that rating, but that scenario looks very unlikely at this time. To donate to Murphy, click here: secure.actblue.com/...
FLORIDA POLLS
Poll source |
date(s) administered |
sample size |
margin of error |
marco Rubio (r) |
Patrick Murphy (D) |
uNDECIDED |
nbc/wsj/marist |
july 5-11, 2016
|
871
|
3.3%
|
47%
|
44%
|
7%
|
surveyusa |
june 25-27, 2016
|
1,678
|
2.4%
|
43%
|
43%
|
8%
|
PUBLIC POLICY POLLING |
JUNE 15-16, 2016
|
508
|
4.4%
|
41%
|
42%
|
17%
|
Illinois: GOP Senator Mark Kirk’s win in deep-blue Illinois was more likely due to a heavily flawed Democratic opponent rather than candidate strength. This time, Team Blue is expecting a course correct. Democrats landed a star recruit in popular Rep. Tammy Duckworth. The tea leaves here seem to indicate Republicans are preparing to triage this seat to protect their vulnerable incumbents. Kirk has lagged behind Duckworth in fundraising. Duckworth currently holds a $5.5-3.1 million cash on hand advantage over Kirk. Another bad sign for the incumbent is that the NRSC and outside conservative groups have reserved zero airtime in the state. That’s a huge indicator Republicans see this seat as a loss. Duckworth has also lead in every public poll since she announced her candidacy in 2015, even sporting a 3-point lead over Kirk in his own internal polling. Albeit this race is severely under polled. While Kirk has staked out some moderate positions during his time in the Senate and has even denounced Trump as the Republican nominee, Illinois just seems like too blue of a state to overcome in a Presidential year. Even if Democrats cannot retake the Senate, this seat will at least give them one takeover. I currently rate this race as Lean Democratic, and it will likely stay that way all the way to November. To donate to Duckworth, click here: secure.actblue.com/...
ILLINOIS POLLS
pOLL SOURCE |
DATE(S) ADMINISTERED |
SAMPLE SIZE |
mARGIN OF ERROR |
MARK KIRK (R) |
TAMMY DUCKWORTH (D) |
UNDECIDED |
GS STRATEGY GROUP |
MARCH 30-31, 2016
|
600
|
4%
|
40%
|
43%
|
17%
|
END CITIZENS UNITED
|
SEPTEMBER 10-14, 2015
|
948
|
3.2%
|
41%
|
45%
|
14%
|
Indiana: The open Senate race to replace retiring GOP Senator Dan Coats became very sleepy once establishment GOP Rep. Todd Young beat fellow Rep. and conservative firebrand Marlin Stutzman by a large margin in the GOP primary. Democrats thought former Democratic Rep. Baron Hill could make this seat competitive against the gaffe-prone Stutzman, but the inoffensive Young caused them to lose interest, bonus the fact that Hill was severely lacking on the fundraising front. This seat was ready to be moved off the big board until popular former Democratic Governor and Senator Evan Bayh, also the son of longtime former Senator Birch Bayh, shockingly declared his candidacy after the dust had already been settled in the primary, causing Hill to gracefully bow out. Bayh’s entry into this race creates a whole new ballgame. This seat is now a potential pickup opportunity for Democrats and a seat Republicans didn’t think they would have to spend money to defend. When Bayh retired in 2010, his campaign account still had almost $10 million dollars and that account has been untouched all this time. That is a huge cash advantage over Young, who only has about $1.4 million on hand and with not a lot of time to play catchup. Bayh was apparently persuaded to run by Chuck Schumer, who showed Bayh private polling of him with alleged double-digit leads over Young. However, a Bayh victory is certainly not yet a guarantee, and there is still potential for Bayh to lose. For one, Young is cut from the same cloth as other mainstream conservative types that Indiana usually elects. Secondly, when Bayh retired he went on to serve on several corporate boards and lobbying firms in DC, something that likely won’t resound well with Hoosiers. Bayh also hasn’t spent much time in the state over the past six years, which is almost assuredly going to be brought up in attack ads and debates. Bayh also hasn’t actually had to face voters since 2004, when things like Facebook and the iPhone didn’t even exist. Our political climate has changed so much since then, it is hard to say if Bayh still receives the love in the Hoosier State like he used to. Political families also seem to be losing their influence with American voters altogether. The 2010 loss of Robin Carnahan in the Missouri Senate race and the 2014 losses of Mary Landrieu, Mark Pryor, and Mark Udall in Louisiana, Arkansas, and Colorado are all prime examples. One thing is certain, Bayh enjoys almost universal name recognition, second only to Jesus, in his home state and that could make or break him. For better or for worse, the Bayh political family have been institutions in Indiana politics for decades. The Presidential race could also play a role here. Despite being a conservative state, Obama did win here narrowly by a few thousand votes in 2008, and he was facing an opponent that wasn’t as toxic as Trump. The state did revert back to form in 2012 by going for Romney by 10 points, but again, that wasn’t Trump. If Trump is losing big nationwide, he could very well be losing the state narrowly to Clinton, which could result in many swing voters also throwing their support behind Bayh. There has only been one public poll of this race since Bayh’s entry and it is a DSCC internal so take it with a grain of salt. Bayh does have a commanding double-digit lead over Young, and even half of Trump supporters have a favorable opinion of Bayh. Still, I will need polling from outlets that don’t have a horse in the race before I see this as a pickup for Democrats, but for now analysts can all agree this race starts out as a Tossup. As we move closer to November, we will see if polling gives us some indication of what is going on in this race as to whether or not Bayh can’t be beat or if the GOP attacks on him manage to stick. To donate to Bayh, click here: secure.actblue.com/…
INDIANA POLLS
Poll source |
DATE(S) ADMINISTERED |
SAMPLE SIZE |
MARGIN OF ERROR |
Todd Young (R) |
Evan Bayh (D) |
UNDECIDED |
Garin-Hart-Yang Research |
June 12-14, 2016
|
602
|
4.1%
|
33%
|
54%
|
13%
|
New Hampshire: GOP Senator Kelly Ayotte got her most formidable challenger in Democratic Governor Maggie Hassan. New Hampshire is one of the few states where ticket splitting is common among a large swath of the electorate, resulting in wild swings up and down the ballot, meaning Ayotte doesn’t necessarily have the advantage just because she’s the incumbent. However, the Presidential race is expected to play a large role here, but the state hasn’t voted for a Republican since 2000, and that trend certainly isn’t going to end with the candidacy of Trump despite its designation as a swing state. The trouble for Ayotte is that Clinton is more likely than not going to carry to state, and Hassan could certainly ride Clinton’s coattails to victory. On the fundraising front, Ayotte has $7 million on hand while Hassan has $4.2 million, although Hassan has outpaced Ayotte in the last two fundraising quarters. The state is set in the expensive Boston media market, so both candidates will be receiving assists from their respective campaign committees and outside groups. There have been numerous polls, each giving the same result, a statistical dead heat. If I had to guess who comes out on top in November, I’d say Hassan just due to the Presidential race and how she has managed to win tough elections in the past, especially during the 2014 Republican wave. However, in New Hampshire nothing is certain, and Ayotte is certainly a strong campaigner. I could see this race coming down to a razor thing margin on Election Day, therefore I have to rate this seat as a Tossup, and I don't expect that rating to change at all by November. To donate to Hassan, click here: secure.actblue.com/…
NEW HAMPSHIRE POLLS
POLL SOURCE |
DATE(S) ADMINISTERED |
SAMPLE SIZE |
MARGIN OF ERROR |
KELLY AYOTTE (R) |
Maggie hassan (d) |
undecided |
PUBLIC POLICY POLLING |
JUNE 22-23, 2016
|
578
|
4.1%
|
42%
|
44%
|
15%
|
GLOBAL STRATEGY GROUP
|
JUNE 15-16, 2016
|
400
|
4.9%
|
45%
|
49%
|
6%
|
fRANKLIN pIERCE uNIVERSITY
|
MAY 25-28, 2016
|
405
|
4.9%
|
48%
|
47%
|
5%
|
North Carolina: GOP Senator Richard Burr has always been a Senator by circumstance. First by riding Baby Bush’s coattails in 2004 as he carried the state significantly and then in the 2010 Republican wave when Democrats performed terribly in the state all-around. He is also one of the most anonymous, back benching members of the Senate. Recent polling has shown many North Carolinians have no opinion of him one way or the other, with about 2/3 not even knowing who he is. This means Democrats could easily paint Burr in any way they like if they choose to do so. While most top-tier Democrats turned down this race, former state Rep. Deborah Ross took on the enormous task of upsetting Burr. Ross brings back memories of Kay Hagan’s 2008 campaign against Elizabeth Dole. Hagan, a little known legislator from Greensboro jumped in when everyone else said no and ended up trouncing Dole that year after a hard fought campaign and the Democratic wave. Ross has fundraised considerably well for a race that is likely on the lower-tier of seats Democrats think they can win. However, Ross does come with her own set of political baggage for Democrats. She did head the state chapter of the ACLU before running for office, which supports several positions many North Carolinians are probably against. Expect this to be in attack ads if Ross does gain momentum over Burr. She actually outraised Burr $2.1 million to $1.5 million in the past quarter, something no one had expected. Burr has a bigger war chest with about $7 million on hand, but hopefully outside groups will help aid Ross. National Democrats have yet to invest here, but they should. According to the last couple of polls, the race is very much going to be competitive with Burr having nothing more than a small lead over Ross. The Presidential race is going to be a huge factor in this race, as Trump will be a turnoff to the state’s African American population and a lot of moderates who live in the major city suburbs. If both Clinton and Ross are carrying Charlotte, Durham, Greensboro, Raleigh, and Winston-Salem by significant margins, it’s game over for Burr. I do believe, however, that Burr starts this race out with at least a slight advantage due to his large cash advantage and the fact that Democrats have yet to spend any money here. If those two factors change, this seat will be ripe for a Democratic takeover. It has all the signs of another Dole-Hagan scenario, but we shall see. I currently rate this seat as Tossup/Tilt Republican, but I do see this race potentially moving to Tossup before this is over with. To donate to Ross, click here: secure.actblue.com/...
NORTH CAROLINA POLLS
Poll source |
DATE(S) ADMINISTERED |
SAMPLE SIZE |
MARGIN OF ERROR |
RICHARD BURR (R) |
DEBORAH ROSS (D) |
UNDECIDED |
public policy polling |
JUNE 20-21, 2016
|
947
|
3.2%
|
40%
|
37%
|
18%
|
Civitas Institute
|
APRIL 23-25, 2016
|
600
|
4%
|
39%
|
38%
|
26%
|
OHIO: In what is probably the swingiest state in the country, second only to Florida, Ohio also has a competitive Senate race this cycle. GOP Senator Rob Portman faces a top-tier challenge from former Democratic Rep. and Governor Ted Strickland. Strickland lost the governorship in 2010 to John Kasich after one term, but most analysts seem to agree this was due to the Republican wave rather than anything Strickland did wrong. This is probably going to be one of the most expensive Senate races this cycle, with both the DSCC and NRSC reserving millions in airtime in the weeks up to Election Day, along with various outside groups from both sides. For his part, Portman has a huge war chest to the tune of $13 million dollars. Strickland lags far behind at $4 million, but the DSCC is shoring him up with huge ad buys adding up to $10 million. Portman has, interestingly, spent time hitting Strickland for supporting the “War on Coal” but perhaps unbeknownst to Portman, the “war” seems to be over in Ohio as only around 4,000 coal mining jobs even still exist in the state. Portman could be trying to harm Strickland’s image in his home community that he represented in Congress, that just so happens to contain many (now defunct) coal communities and is a swingy area in down ballot races. In 2012, Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown cruised to re-election against a tough opponent, and aside from winning the large urban areas, Brown also performed well in this area even though Obama was unpopular and Brown was known as a staunch liberal. Seeing as Strickland represented this area for a long time in Congress, one would think he could improve on Brown’s margins here. Polling has indicated this race is very much up in the air. Portman and Strickland have both led narrowly in numerous polls, so it’s hard to tell who has the advantage, if any. In the Presidential race, both candidates will likely spend heavily here as well, and it’s unclear if Trump is actually winning over that many disaffected white Rust Belt workers to make Clinton really work to win the state, or if his campaign is just so disastrous that the Trumpocalypse makes even Ohio look Democratic-leaning. Like New Hampshire, I can see this race coming down to just a couple thousand votes, and it will likely depend on which Presidential candidate carries the state. Either candidate could win here, therefore I have to rate this seat as a Tossup, and that likely won’t change unless someone makes a gaffe. To donate to Strickland, click here: secure.actblue.com/...
OHIO POLLS
Poll source |
DATE(S) ADMINISTERED |
SAMPLE SIZE |
MARGIN OF ERROR |
Rob Portman (R) |
Ted Strickland(D) |
UNDECIDED |
NBC/WSJ/MARIST |
JULY 5-10, 2016
|
848
|
3.4%
|
44%
|
44%
|
10%
|
public policy polling
|
June 22-23, 2016
|
708
|
3.9%
|
40%
|
39%
|
9%
|
Pennsylvania: In the 2010 Republican wave, GOP Senator Pat Toomey won this light blue state in a close race against former Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak. This time around, Sestak and Katie McGinty, a former state EPA secretary and chief of staff to Governor Tom Wolf, faced off in a very expensive primary for the right to take on Toomey. The DSCC spent big on McGinty’s behalf to ensure her victory in the Democratic primary. While McGinty is certainly a better fundraiser than Sestak, I’m not so sure she is the better campaigner. In 2014, McGinty ran a forgettable campaign in a Democratic 4-way primary race for Governor in which she only mustered around 4% of the vote, which is not something to write home about and certainly doesn’t scream future Senator to me. In my opinion, McGinty comes off as very awkward and stiff anytime she is in an ad or interview. I’m hoping she can prove me wrong, but I remain skeptical she can actually take down Toomey. On the fundraising front, Toomey has an insane $20 million war chest, second only to God. McGinty on the other hand only has about $4 million on hand after she spent a lot of her funds to win her primary. Here’s hoping groups like the DSCC and EMILY’s List spend heavily on her behalf like they did in the primary, because she likely won’t raise even half of what Toomey has for the rest of the cycle. Hopefully she will get a speaking slot at the DNC since it is being held in Philly and she can draw attention to her campaign and raise more money. Despite McGinty’s lack of energy, Pennsylvania is still a light blue state in a Presidential year. The state hasn’t voted Republican for President since it voted for Daddy Bush in 1988, and that trend isn’t going to end with a candidate like Trump. Clinton is likely to carry to state by at least a few points, and McGinty could just as easily ride her coattails no matter how much Toomey is flooding the airwaves. McGinty will likely need to perform well in the Philly suburbs in order to overtake Toomey, otherwise it is hard to see where she can get the votes. Polling has indicated a close race, including McGinty leading in her first poll ever recently, but because I am not yet confident McGinty is that great of a candidate, I currently rate this race as Tossup/Tilt Republican. I am hoping she can prove me wrong in these next couple of months and I can move this race to a Tossup. To donate to McGinty, click here: secure.actblue.com/…
PENNSYLVANIA POLLS
Poll source |
DATE(S) ADMINISTERED |
SAMPLE SIZE |
MARGIN OF ERROR |
Pat Toomey (R) |
Katie McGinty (D) |
UNDECIDED |
NBC/WSJ/MARIST |
JULY 5-10, 2016
|
829
|
3.4%
|
44%
|
47%
|
8%
|
public policy polling
|
June 22-23, 2016
|
980
|
3.1%
|
40%
|
39%
|
21%
|
Wisconsin: Wisconsin is more likely than not the 2nd best pickup opportunity for Democrats this cycle behind Illinois. GOP Senator Ron Johnson hasn’t led in a public poll going all the way back to 2013. It is unclear what has made Johnson so unpopular, but I would assume it is his hyper-partisan nature despite representing a swing state, among other things. The man challenging him is the same man he beat in what many considered to be a fluke of the GOP wave of 2010, former Senator Russ Feingold. Feingold was caught sleeping in 2010, but he has learned from his mistakes and is aggressively campaigning to reclaim his old seat. Unlike Mark Kirk in Illinois, national Republicans haven’t yet given up on Johnson as they have reserved some air time for this seat. Johnson is also personally wealthy, so he can just self-fund his campaign if the NRSC abandons him. Feingold has kept up the pace with Johnson in fundraising, and has managed to outraise the last few quarters. Feingold currently has a $7.2 million to $6.3 million cash on hand advantage over Johnson. Polling has shown Feingold with varying degrees of an advantage, sometimes sporting narrow leads and other times sporting double-digit leads. One thing is certain, Johnson is definitely the underdog. The Presidential race will also likely play a role here. Despite its designation as a swing state, Wisconsin hasn’t voted for a Republican for President since Ronald Reagan’s landslide spanking of Walter Mondale in 1984, and that trend isn’t likely to come to an end because of a candidate like Trump. If Clinton is winning Wisconsin by a decent margin, as she should, it doesn’t look good for Johnson. Because of Johnson’s unpopularity and Feingold’s resurgence along with Presidential year turnout, I have to rate this race as Lean Democratic. I don’t expect this race to move in Johnson’s favor unless Feingold makes a great error, but I could see putting this at Likely Democratic before November. To donate to Feingold, click here: secure.actblue.com/…
WISCONSIN POLLS
Poll source |
DATE(S) ADMINISTERED |
SAMPLE SIZE |
MARGIN OF ERROR |
Ron Johnson (R) |
Russ Feingold (D) |
UNDECIDED |
Public Policy Polling |
June 22-23, 2016
|
843
|
3.4%
|
37%
|
50%
|
13%
|
Marquette University
|
June 9-12, 2016
|
666
|
4.4%
|
42%
|
51%
|
6%
|
In the Hunt: These are seats where Republicans have an advantage but Democrats have recruited strong candidates and expanded the playing field.
Arkansas: Many argue the quick transition in Arkansas from only electing Democrats to only electing Republicans in just a few cycles was the prolonged Bill Clinton-effect. But Clinton’s influence on politics in the state seems to have evaporated after Democrats have been rejected across the board from 2010-2014. So what makes this cycle any different? Well, for one thing, Democrats landed a strong recruit in U.S. Attorney Conner Eldridge. Secondly, while GOP Senator John Boozman handily defeated Democrat Blanche Lincoln here during the 2010 Republican wave, he has not spent much time raising money during the last 6 years. Boozman currently has only $2 million in cash on hand, not an impressive number for an incumbent in a race where he should be favored. By contrast, Eldridge has raised about $1 million. Finally, it may be off-color to think that because Obama will no longer be on the ballot, the racial polarization in the state could decrease. For example, while I don’t expect Clinton to win the state, I think she will improve on Obama’s margin, even though she is just as much a figurehead in a more liberal Democratic Party than 20 years ago. But it’s just accepting the reality that many people didn’t vote for Obama because he was African American. The good news for Eldridge is that he has never held elected office, and will be able to introduce himself to voters as a centrist, unlike Lincoln and Mark Pryor who struggled with separating themselves from the national party. The bad news for Eldridge is that he was appointed by Obama, and Republicans will be sure to remind voters of that if they feel Boozman is vulnerable. Eldridge will need to perform well in Little Rock and in the various rural counties in the lower part of the state where many disaffected conservative Democrats live if he is to be victorious. Polling for this race has been scarce, with one poll showing a large Boozman lead, but that was before Eldridge has even had the chance to run any ads, including a scathing online ad connecting Boozman to Trump. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. I don’t see Arkansas as a state where Trump’s brand harms him, but we will just have to continue observing. For now, I rate this race as Likely Republican, with a small chance of a Democratic upset. I will revisit this race before November to see if the dynamic has changed or if this needs to be taken off the board, but for now it's fair to say Boozman has the clear advantage. To donate to Eldridge, click here: secure.actblue.com/…
ARKANSAS POLLS
Poll source |
DATE(S) ADMINISTERED |
SAMPLE SIZE |
MARGIN OF ERROR |
John Boozman (R) |
Conner Eldridge (D) |
UNDECIDED |
TALK BUSINESS/Hendrix cOLLEGE |
June 21, 2016
|
751
|
3.9%
|
51%
|
29%
|
14%
|
Arizona: GOP Senator John McCain is a household name in all of America thanks to his multiple Presidential bids, but in Arizona it’s for all the wrong reasons. McCain has terrible approval ratings in the state, largely due to voters believing he is out of touch and self-serving. He has even earned the designation as America’s Most Unpopular Senator. Because of this, he has a Tea Party-flavored primary challenger, State Sen. Kelli Ward, who has thus far impressed no one but could win the primary as a reprimand of McCain. However, Ward has her own credibility issues, including concerns by conservatives that she is too far-right. Ward held state Senate hearings on chemtrails last year, earning her the nickname “Chemtrail Kelli”. This is largely what has been holding back Ward on the fundraising front and has caused outside groups to stay put, though several polling outlets have shown McCain with only a small lead over Ward. No matter whether they are facing McCain or Ward, Democrats are prepared to contest this seat. They landed a stronger than expected recruit in Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick. Polling has shown a close race here, but McCain always seems to be vulnerable before Republicans hold their nose and vote for him anyway. Kirkpatrick has held down a swingy House seat that Mitt Romney won for the past two cycles, and even survived the 2014 GOP wave, so she knows how to win in red turf. A big factor in this race are the state’s demographics. Arizona is 30% Latino, and Trump’s toxicity to Latino voters is certain to make waves down the ballot. Clinton may make a play for the state if Trump is performing badly nationwide, which would almost bolster Kirkpatrick’s chances. Democrats almost won an open seat here in 2012, and hopefully a boost in Latino voter turnout will improve Kirkpatrick’s margins in Maricopa and Pinal counties, which are key to a Kirkpatrick victory and where the 2012 Democratic nominee underperformed. Kirkpatrick will also hope for higher turnout among the Navajo Nation, a constituency she represents in Congress and is very Democratic-leaning when voting. On the fundraising front, McCain holds a significant $5.8 million to $2.5 million cash on hand advantage over Kirkpatrick. Polling has indicated a close race, but a lot of the undecided voters are in actuality far-right conservatives who hate McCain but will end up voting for him anyway over a Democrat. Because of the bent of the state and McCain’s universal name recognition, I have to rate this race as Lean Republican. If things really start going south for Republicans in the Presidential race, I will revisit this rating and it could eventually be moved to a Tossup. To donate to Kirkpatrick, click here: secure.actblue.com/…
ARIZONA POLLS
Poll source |
DATE(S) ADMINISTERED |
SAMPLE SIZE |
MARGIN OF ERROR |
jOHN McCain (R) |
aNN Kirkpatrick (D) |
UNDECIDED |
Public Policy Polling |
June 22-23, 2016
|
691
|
3.7%
|
42%
|
40%
|
19%
|
PUBLIC POLICY POLLING
|
June 8-9, 2016
|
747
|
3.6%
|
41%
|
43%
|
16%
|
Georgia: GOP Senator Johnny Isakson is an inoffensive mainstream Republican who rarely makes waves, but Democrats are hoping a poor national environment for the GOP can put this seat into play. Georgia has been something of a white wale for Democrats. Recruitment for this seat, however, was one of the few letdowns this cycle. Almost every notable Democrat turned this seat down, probably because it is so stubbornly difficult for Democrats to win. In Georgia, if no candidate receives 50% of the vote plus one an early December runoff is forced. A Libertarian candidate is in the mix, and they usually grab around 2% in each election here. Democrats already have turnout issues in non-Presidential elections, and a runoff a month after the general during the middle of the Holiday season only makes those matters worse. With everyone viable saying no, Democrats decided to rub the Random Rich Guy lamp and out came wealthy businessman Jim Barksdale. So far, Barksdale has put in $2 million of his own money, and I’m sure there is more where that came from. For his part, Isakson is sitting on $6 million in cash on had. Perhaps a Barksdale candidacy is good for Democrats, as he has largely been self-funding his bid so they can place resources elsewhere. Still, Isakson will be hard to defeat when he hasn’t really done much to anger Georgia voters. However, Georgia’s demographics are changing fast as the African American population is growing at a steady rate and the older, white population is in decline. The state is certainly on track to move from a Republican stronghold to being competitive in Presidential elections, joining fellow purple and “New South” states like North Carolina and Virginia. The Presidential race could impact the Senate race depending on if Clinton makes a play for the state and Trump is performing terribly nationwide. However, I’m not sure the state is ready to make that change to purple this year. There has only been one poll so far for this race and it showed a comfortable lead by Isakson, and I have to believe that’s where this race is at right now. Therefore, I rate this race as Likely Republican, but we will see if the Presidential race can help move to needle for Barksdale by November. To donate to Barksdale, click here: secure.actblue.com/...
GEORGIA POLLS
Poll source |
DATE(S) ADMINISTERED |
SAMPLE SIZE |
MARGIN OF ERROR |
Johnny Isakson (R) |
Jim Barksdale (D) |
UNDECIDED |
Public Policy Polling |
May 27-30, 2016
|
724
|
3.6%
|
47%
|
35%
|
18%
|
Iowa: GOP Senator Chuck Grassley hasn’t received less than 60% of the vote in this purple state since his first election in 1980. It was no surprise that top-tier Democrats in the state weren’t willing to go up against Grassley, who they viewed as unbeatable even under the best of conditions. It seemed like Iowa Democrats were ready to just settle for a sacrificial lamb on the ballot. However, the death of Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia and the drama that followed with Grassley’s refusal to hold Senate Judiciary Committee hearings for Obama’s nominee, Merrick Garland, caused a last minute candidacy by the ironically named Patty Judge. Judge is a former two-term Agriculture Secretary and served as Lieutenant Governor under former Democratic Governor Chet Culver. Culver and Judge were both defeated in the Republican wave of 2010, but that was considered more of a reprimand against Culver than Judge. Being as Grassley is the chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, Judge has made the Supreme Court nomination a key issue in her longshot bid against Grassley, even putting the phrase “The Judge Grassley Can’t Ignore” on her campaign signs. Throughout the years, Grassley has enjoyed crossover support from independents and Democrats who think he brings home the bacon. However, this hyper-partisan move by Grassley to keep Scalia’s seat vacant is starting to harm some of the bipartisan goodwill he enjoyed in the state. Polling has shown Grassley with a lead, but certainly nowhere near his previous double digit wins. Even if Grassley prevails in November, it likely won’t be by the commanding margin he is used to having. The Presidential race could help Judge here if Clinton is carrying the state by a decent margin. However, Trump’s brand may not be as appalling to one of the whitest states in the country, though there are plenty of swing voters in this state who will probably have a distaste for his extremism. Judge has struggled with fundraising, raising only about $700,000 thus far with only about $200,000 in cash on hand. She has recently replaced her staff in charge of fundraising, so we will see if that number improves in the next quarter. Meanwhile, Grassley is sitting on $5 million in cash on hand. Because of the fundraising disparity and Grassley’s prowess on the campaign trail, I currently rate this race as Likely Republican. While Judge’s daunting task of unseating Grassley is very much David v. Goliath, it is not as impossible as it once seemed. However, if outside groups don’t spend money on this race it is hard to see Grassley losing. With that said, I will reassess this race by November to see if the dynamic of this race has changed at all or if Judge has reached her peak. To donate to Judge, click here: secure.actblue.com/…
IOWA POLLS
Poll source |
DATE(S) ADMINISTERED |
SAMPLE SIZE |
MARGIN OF ERROR |
Chuck Grassley (R) |
Patty Judge (D) |
UNDECIDED |
Monmouth University |
July 8-11, 2016
|
401
|
4.9%
|
52%
|
42%
|
6%
|
PUBLIC POLICY POLLING
|
June 22-23, 2016
|
897
|
3.3%
|
46%
|
39%
|
14%
|
Kentucky: GOP Senator Rand Paul has made a name for himself in Congress, but not always for the right reasons. His embarrassing Presidential bid and frequent rehashing of his father’s sometimes unorthodox political views has taken a dent in his favorability ratings with voters. While I fully believe Paul has a clear advantage here, Democrats are fielding a credible candidate in Lexington Mayor Jim Gray. Gray is personally wealthy, and has already loaned his campaign almost $2 million dollars. Paul has spent a year and a half ignoring his Senate campaign as he tried to run for President, and his fundraising shows it. Paul only has $1.3 million in cash on hand, not an impressive number for an incumbent. Gray has built a good relationship with businesses in the Lexington, and is credited with maintaining the city’s stable economy and growth. However, Gray is more liberal than most Democrats in the state. Kentucky has always been willing to elect centrist Democrats to state offices, but they are hesitant to do so at the federal level nowadays. Kentucky always flirts with the Democratic Senate nominee before always opting for the Republican. Just ask people like Bruce Lunsford, Jack Conway, and Alison Lundergan Grimes. When Rand Paul ran for this seat when it was open in 2010, he gathered enough Tea Party support in the primary to upset establishment favorite Trey Grayson, which annoyed many business conservatives in the state. I think Gray’s only hope is to build a coalition of Democrats and business-oriented conservatives to contrast Paul’s more movement conservatism. The Presidential race likely won’t be a factor here as Trump will definitely carry the state. There has been zero polling in this race, but hopefully we will get some soon. I currently rate this race as Likely Republican. Paul definitely has an edge here, but Gray is wealthy and will likely keep up with Paul on the airwaves, so that offers some unpredictably. I will see before November if Gray is able to capitalize on Paul’s weaknesses or if this race needs to be taken off the board. To donate to Gray, click here: secure.actblue.com/...
Louisiana: After losing the 2015 Governor’s race, GOP Senator David Vitter decided to retire. This left a very crowded field to succeed him. Louisiana has a weird law where all candidates, regardless of party, run in the same jungle primary on Election Day, and then if no one clears 50% plus one the top two finishers will duke it out in a December runoff. I am really only including this race in my lineup because there is a small chance two Democrats could advance to the runoff, resulting in an automatic pickup. The Republican candidates are (deep breath) Reps. Charles Boustany and John Fleming, Treasurer John Kennedy, Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta, former Rep. Joe Cao, businessman Abhay Patel, and Tea Party activist Rob Maness. Democrats are running Public Service Commissioner Foster Campbell, attorney Caroline Fayard, and businessman Josh Pellerin. Former State Sen. Troy Hebert is running as an independent, though he has had some legal issues as of late. While ideology will play a role here, this race is really going to come down to geography and who can turn out enough of their people. For the Republicans, Boustany has establishment support and represents most of the southwestern parts of the state, including the cities of Lafayette, Lake Charles, and New Iberia.
Fleming has support from social conservatives and the Club for Growth and represents the northwestern part of the state including the cities of Bossier City and Shreveport. Cao, Maness, Kennedy, and Patel all live in the New Orleans suburbs. Cao only served one term in Congress in a heavily Democratic district when he unseated Democrat Bill Jefferson, who was going to jail, so he will probably only get an asterisk level of support. Maness has the support of Tea Party conservatives, including the likes of Ben Carson, Sarah Palin, and Rand Paul. Kennedy has the most name recognition of anyone in this field thanks to his multiple runs for office over the years, but he was a conservative Democrat until 2007, and while he is leading in polling at the moment, Republicans are likely to attack him for this. Skrmetta is also from the New Orleans suburbs but represents several outside areas including the parishes covering the Gulf Coast and a part of Baton Rouge. For the Democrats, Campbell represents the areas of Shreveport and Bossier City on the commission, similar to Boustany in Congress. Campbell is a Democratic populist that has held down a competitive seat on the commission with ease. He has the support of Democratic Governor John Bel Edwards and has hired many of his 2015 campaign staff. Fayard is from New Orleans and has name recognition from her previous run for Lieutenant Governor in 2011 and is close to the Landrieu political family. Pellerin is from Lafayette but has raised almost no money and hasn’t excited anyone, so I don't expect him to be a factor here. On the fundraising front, Boustany and Fleming each have about $2.5 million, Kennedy has $1.4 million, Campbell has $1 million, Fayard has $600,000, and Cao, Maness, and Patel round out the field with around $300,000 each. In this crowded field, the GOP vote could very well splinter enough that the two credible Democrats running could advance to the runoff. It’s a small chance, but it could happen. For now, polling shows both Kennedy and Campbell advancing to the runoff, but once Republicans like Boustany and Fleming get on the airwaves, expect Kennedy’s lead to shrink. If Campbell and Fayard advance, I rate this race as Lean Campbell due to Campbell’s likely runoff support to come from the Edwards coalition and Republicans who view Fayard as too liberal. If the runoff is a Republican against a Democrat, this race is Safe Republican unless the Republican becomes enthralled in a Vitter-type scandal. The primary is on Election Day, so this rating will likely stay put unless someone makes a grave error. To donate to Campbell, click here: secure.actblue.com/…, To donate to Fayard, click here: secure.actblue.com/...
LOUISIANA POLLS
Poll source |
DATE(S) ADMINISTERED |
SAMPLE SIZE |
MARGIN OF ERROR |
John Kennedy (R) |
Foster Campbell (D) |
Charles bOUSTANY (r) |
Caroline Fayard (D) |
jOHN FLEMING (R) |
GBA STRATEGIES |
June 6-9, 2016
|
500
|
4.4%
|
30%
|
15%
|
11%
|
14%
|
9%
|
Anzalone liszt grove research
|
May 31-jUNE 2, 2016
|
600
|
4%
|
24%
|
14%
|
11%
|
9%
|
7%
|
Missouri: Missouri is a state that has elected Democrats at both the state and federal level despite voting for Republicans for President. GOP Senator Roy Blunt managed to win comfortably thanks to the 2010 wave, but this year he faces a tougher challenge. Democrats are fielding a rising star in the state, Secretary of State and Afghan War veteran Jason Kander. Blunt has a $6.3 to $3.8 million cash on hand advantage over Kander, but Kander’s fundraising has been steadily increasing every quarter. Blunt is considered one of the more corrupt members of the Senate after his long tenure in the House, and is an ally of Big Oil and Big Tobacco. Kander’s tenure as Secretary of State has been fairly lowkey, and recent polling has shown he is fairly unknown to voters. Blunt on the other hand is sporting record low approval ratings, indicating he could be vulnerable heading into the general election. If Kander wishes to be successful he should paint Blunt as a creature of Washington. That message could resonate well with moderates who are tired of the status quo in DC. The Presidential race may also have an impact if Clinton makes a play for the state. Obama nearly won the state in 2008, so it’s not impossible to see Clinton winning here when her opponent is Trump. While Missouri is a conservative state, it isn’t staunchly so. Kander will need to perform well in areas like Kansas City, St. Louis, Columbia, Springfield, and Independence in order to beat Blunt. Thanks to the elasticity of voters in this state, I believe this is the most likely pickup opportunity of all the contests that are In the Hunt. While the DSCC hasn’t reserved any airtime here yet, the NRSC has, indicating they are worried about this seat. For now, Blunt has an advantage because of the Republican-lean of the state, but polling has indicated this race is tightening, so no one should count Kander out yet. I currently rate this race as Lean Republican, though that has the potential to change going forward. To donate to Kander, click here: secure.actblue.com/…
MISSOURI POLLS
Poll source |
DATE(S) ADMINISTERED |
SAMPLE SIZE |
MARGIN OF ERROR |
Roy Blunt (R) |
Jason Kander (D) |
UNDECIDED |
Public policy polling |
July 11-12, 2016
|
959
|
3.2%
|
41%
|
38%
|
21%
|
Missouri scout
|
March 25-26, 2016
|
927
|
3.2%
|
44%
|
37%
|
19%
|
Safe Seats: Barring any unforeseen circumstances such as a scandal, these seats should stay safely in their respective party's hands.
I currently rate the Senate races in Alabama, Alaska, Idaho, Kansas, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, and Utah as Safe Republican.
I currently rate the Senate races in California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Maryland, New York, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington as Safe Democratic.
There you have it folks, the 17 Senate seats that will decide control of the chamber this fall. By October we should have a clearer picture about whether Democrats will be able to regain the chamber. Assuming they hold Colorado and Nevada, Democrats need 4 seats to have a 50-50 majority (in which case the Vice President would be the tiebreaker) or 5 seats if they lose the White House, though if they’re losing the White House they certainly won’t be winning the Senate. If the election were today, Democrats would more likely than not win both Illinois and Wisconsin, meaning they would need only two more seats. If Evan Bayh is truly demolishing Todd Young in Indiana, that would mean they would only need one seat out of Florida, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Needless to say, Democrats should be confident but not cocky headed into November. In some ways, though, this election will just be another chapter in what will likely be a decade-long battle, with the Senate majority flipping back and forth between the parties. Consider that in 2018, Democrats have 25 seats at risk to just 8 for Republicans. At the moment, individual Democratic seats in 2018 do not seem as vulnerable as the Republican seats are this year, but a 25-8 seat exposure is a killer, especially because midterm elections tend to be very unfriendly to a sitting President, who would presumably be Hillary Clinton. Unless Democrats somehow manage to also flip the House chamber this year, I would expect the next few cycles to just be warring status-quos between the two parties in both chambers as neither party can seem to pull off the trifecta.
Thank you for reading and be sure to stay tuned for my posts covering the House battleground by regions very soon.