According to a new CBS poll, Trump got a 2% bounce from his convention, and now leads Clinton by 1%. This is a battleground poll so it’s polling what CBS considers battleground states.
Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia,and Wisconsin
BUT
First the headlines:
Donald Trump gets a small boost in support across the battleground states coming out of his convention: he is at 42 percent support now, up from 40 percent heading in, and it now pushes him slightly ahead of Hillary Clinton, who remains unchanged at 41 percent.
The Margin of error in the poll is 2.7%. So this change could very well be just noise. Usually we see the party’s nominee get a bounce outside the margin of error, and the last few conventions have only produced a very small bounce.
CBS is a good polling agency, but as much as I hate to nitpick about how many Democrats or Republicans… the poll is sampling, I do just want to point out one thing that kind of draws my attention.
One of the things that gives hope to Dems is the changing demographics of the country. Here’s what the CBS poll says:
White ...................................................................78%
Black ...................................................................11%
Hispanic .................................................................7%
Other .................................................................... 4%
Now here’s what 538 says about the 2012 demographics:
African-Americans, Latinos, Asians and other non-whites — all overwhelmingly Democratic-leaning groups — rose from 12 percent of voters in 1980 to 28 percent in 2012.
So, CBS is saying the electorate will be 78% white, while 538 is saying it was only 72% white back in 2012. If CBS is right, this is going to be a very close race. If 538 is right, not so close.
There’s also an LA times tracking poll that they did some tracking during the convention, but hasn’t been updated since the 21st and it wasn’t showing much movement at all.
So early indicators are that there wasn’t much, if any convention bounce for Trump, but I don’t think that’s much of a news flash for most people here.
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