Rural and small town Columbia County is not exactly the part of Oregon one would expect to have the longest record of voting Democratic for President, but it is, since 1932. With an estimated population of just 49,600 in 2015, and the largest city being the county seat of St. Helens, with less than 13,000 people according to the 2012 estimate, still has a fairly traditional economy for Oregon:
The primary industries of Columbia County are timber, fishing, water transportation, dairying, horticulture, and recreation. The extensive stands of old growth timber, which had attracted many of the early settlers to the area, were completely logged over by the 1950s.
Continued logging of regrown forests still employs some, and the wood and paper products industry is still alive, with a new Cascades Tissue plant slated to open in Scappoose.
Cascades, Inc. will construct a $64 million manufacturing facility in Scappoose, OR, creating 80 jobs once the facility is operational. The new Columbia County facility will produce bathroom tissue and paper towels, supplied with material from its existing paper plant located in neighboring St. Helens, OR.
The old Trojan Nuclear Plant, long retired now, was sited there, and the area continues to supply power with natural gas plants in Clatskanie. Most of the workforce of the county commute to Longview/Kelso, the Portland area, or other places for work, though. The county’s transition to being a bedroom community, as well as changing environmental, cultural and economic political alignments have meant that the Democratic Party’s relative strength in the county is more tenuous.
Columbia County’s voters have demonstrated great loyalty to Democrats running for president in the past, even when the state as a whole voted Republican, but recent years have brought some close decisions. While Democrats have had close victories before, in elections like 1972, 1980, and 1984, those were in the midst of massive Republican victories in the rest of the country. Those close victories made Columbia much more Democratic than the rest of the country, and the rest of Oregon. Close victories in 2000, 2004, and 2012 were much closer to the rest of the country, and now Columbia County looks little more Democratic than the rest of the country, and in fact less so than the state of Oregon as a whole.
While Democrats have held a narrow edge at least in presidential elections, Republicans have narrowly won the county in the last two elections for governor. Democrat John Kitzhaber still won overall, of course, but the county pretty clearly is no longer more Democratic than the state as a whole. Why the county turned on Kitzhaber after voting for him in 1994 and 1998 is less clear, but much of it may be just a matter of new voters 16-20 years later.
The county tended to vote more Democratic than the rest of the state in U.S. Senate elections as well, even when it voted for Republicans. But since rejecting Hatfield and Packwood in their re-election campaigns during the early 1990s, Gordon Smith is the only Republican the county’s voted for in that office, and only in 1996 and 2002. While Ron Wyden had strong victories in the county in 1996, 1998, and 2004, in 2002, 2008, 2010, and 2014 the county voted more Republican than the state as a whole. In 2014 Jeff Merkley won the state two party vote with 60.2% of the vote, but only got about 55.8% of the vote in Columbia County, the worst performance for a Democratic U.S. Senate candidate in the county relative to their statewide numbers in decades.
Democrats have held pretty firm since the 1980s in partisan statewide executive races, the elections for Secretary of State (SOS), Attorney General (AG), and state Treasurer (Treas). Even in the 1980s when it still voted for some Republicans, the county still gave Democrats a greater share of the vote than they received statewide. Even in the 2010 special election due to Ben Westlund’s untimely passing, in the midst of a Republican wave, with a moderate Republican state senator as the opponent, Ted Wheeler won solidly and slightly outperformed his statewide numbers. His 2012 re-election was the first time in 30 years that a Democratic candidate for Treasurer did worse in Columbia County than statewide, though he still rung up solid victories at both levels.
In races for Secretary of State Democrats firmly held the office in solid victories in the 1980s and 1990s, with wide margins in Columbia County. Aside from the 2004 election, since 2000 the races have been tighter, and in that county it has been the same. The closest election since 1984 occurred in 2012, and the second closest was the previous election in 2008. 2012 was the first of these elections in which the Democrat did worse in Columbia County than statewide.
In 2012 Democratic AG Ellen Rosenblum carried the county by less than 52-48% while winning statewide by almost 59-41%. That was the biggest Democratic victory statewide in a contested AG race since 1992, but the closest Democratic win in Columbia County since we picked up the office that year.
Overall while Democrats have held on to victories in all recent elections except those for governor, Democratic margins have generally been shrinking, and compared to statewide numbers Columbia County is going the wrong way. The chart below depicts the Democratic share of the vote in Columbia County minus the statewide share, so a number above zero shows when Democrats did better in Columbia County than statewide, and below zero is when Democrats did better statewide than in the county.
2000 appears to have been the last election year, considering these races, when every Democrat did better in Columbia County than statewide.
Compared to the national popular vote in presidential elections Columbia County is still slightly Democratic-leaning. 2012 was the first year of recent elections when the Democratic nominee outperformed the national popular vote in the county by under 1 point, though.
Democrats have won the biggest city in the county, St. Helens, by double digits in pretty much every election in recent years. Well, every election but John Kitzhaber’s 2010 and 2014 elections for governor, when he narrowly won it in 2010 and narrowly lost it in 2014.
With little data to establish a trendline, the raw numbers in St. Helens look very stable. Isolated, it doesn’t look like much to worry about for Democrats. But compared to the nation and the state as a whole, it is more worrying. Kerry’s 55.4% in the city was 6.6 points better than his national two-party popular vote share. President Obama slightly exceeded 60% in 2008, about 6.3 points better than his national numbers, but he followed that up with 56.9% in 2012, which was just 4.9 points better than nationally.
Compared to the state the trend is even clearer, across all kinds of statewide partisan races. While the trend relative to the state and the nation looks dire, the raw numbers in Columbia County’s seat and biggest city provide both reasons to worry and still be hopeful. While in 2014, finally for the first time in many years both statewide races showed Democrats falling behind their statewide numbers, and Senator Merkley couldn’t hit 60% in St. Helens even in a statewide landslide, for the most part Democratic numbers (aside from gubernatorial) have hovered in the same range for the last few elections. That corresponds with the countywide tightening relative to the presidential popular vote in 1996 and 2000, but only barely since then.
As the population center for Democratic votes in the county, it bodes well that while the county grew by 16% in the 1990s and over 13% in the 2000s, St. Helens grew by 33% and nearly 29% in those periods. With a population of only about 7,500 in 1990, in 2010 it was nearly 12,900. St. Helens is a city of relative antiquity in the non-native settlement of Oregon, having been established in the 1840s as a port on the Columbia River. More recently the city was seen in the Twilight films.
Like the county as a whole, St. Helens is heavily white according to recent censi. From 2000 to 2010 the city’s white population declined from over 92% to closer to 90% of the whole, while the Hispanic or Latino population rose from around 4% to 6%.
The other larger city in the county is Scappoose, which lies the closest to Portland and is the home of conservative Democratic state Senator Betsy Johnson. Like St. Helens, Scappoose also provides both hints of optimism and pessimism when you get into the specifics. Not as Democratic as the larger St. Helens, it still tends to vote Democratic nonetheless. Like St. Helens, it has voted Democratic in every recent statewide election with the exception of John Kitzhaber’s races for governor.
When comparing it’s performance relative to that of the state as a whole, though, it doesn’t look as good. While in 2004 Democrats, led by John Kerry and Ron Wyden, did better in Scappoose than the rest of the state, yet a decade later Democrats had declined in the city relative to the state and were now significantly underperforming.
The trick about this is, I can’t just say that the stability of Scappoose’s raw results, despite the trend relative to the state, is the potential cause for optimism. The real cause is that relative to the country as a whole, in presidential elections, the trend is looking… not bad at all. In 2004 John Kerry’s performance in Scappoose was about 3.5 points higher than in the national popular vote, but Barack Obama did better in each of his subsequent elections. While Kerry had over 52% of the vote in the city, Obama received nearly 58% and 56% in 2008 and 2012, respectively. The city outperformed the Democratic share of the national popular vote by about 4.3 and 3.8 points in those elections.
This could just be a matter of presidential elections. Non-presidential races showed a more marked decline relative to the statewide numbers, but in presidential races Scappoose sunk all of 0.7 points from 2004 and 2012 relative to the state, and only about 0.1 from 2008 to 2012. Since compared to the nation as a whole Scappoose’s trend actually looks up a bit, that could say more about the trend in the state than in the city.
Also perhaps a positive for Democrats, like St. Helens, Scappoose is also growing faster than the county as a whole. With less than 3,600 people in 1990, the city grew by 41% in the 1990s and 32.5% in the 2000s, with nearly 6,600 people in 2010 and nearly 7,000 according to a 2015 estimate. Not far from St. Helens demographically, in 2010 it was about 91% white and 5% Hispanic or Latino.
Vernonia is the third largest city in the county, but it’s less than a third the size of Scappoose. It’s located in the southwest of the county, in a valley in the Coast Range of mountains. More rustic and isolated, it tends to be the most conservative of the incorporated cities in the county, though the west side of the county does tend to be more conservative than the eastern end.
Vernonia does appear to have a significant trend against Democrats, with President Obama doing worse in 2012 that John Kerry had in 2004. Kerry had lost by about 44-56%, or twelve points, but Mitt Romney won the city by about 19 points, four years after John McCain had only carried it by a little over 4 points. Those numbers put Vernonia about 5 points to the right of the country in 2004, 6 points to the right in 2008, and over 11 points to the right of America in 2012.
Vernonia has seen a downward trend for Democrats in recent races pretty much across the board, relative to the state and the nation. Luckily for Democrats the city does not seem to be growing at the same pace as the larger cities, or even the county as a whole, since 2000. Before then, in the 1990s, it had a larger rate of growth than the county, when it outpaced the county with 23% growth to 16%. The community has suffered through a series of serious floods, and the population actually declined in the 2000s by 3.5%, while the county’s population grew by 13.3%. Estimates since the 2010 census have the city shrinking further by 0.4% while the county has grown by about 0.5%.
Columbia City, just north of St. Helens, has a population north of 1,900. Like its larger neighbor Columbia City tends to vote Democratic. In fact, in recent elections it looks like only in 2010 did it vote against a Democrat: John Kitzhaber. It’s a small town, and heavily, heavily white: nearly 95% in 2010, and just 3% Hispanic or Latino.
Though the numbers kind of look all over the place compared to statewide, in individual kinds of races a downward trend is generally discernible. A wrinkle is that in the presidential race the city actually did worse relative to the state in 2008 than in 2012, in fact 2008 was the city’s recent low point.
The same issue appears when comparing to the national popular vote. In 2004 the city was about D+3.3, with Kerry beating Bush about 52-48%. In 2008 Barack Obama defeated McCain by nearly 56-44%, but that was only about D+1.9 compared to nationally. In 2012 Obama won again, with about 54.7% of the vote, or about D+2.7. While this is worse than 2004, the resiliency of Democratic performance since then is reassuring.
Also reassuring is that the city is growing faster than the county. It grew by nearly 57% in the 1990s and 24% in the 2000s, and according to estimates is has grown a hair faster than the county since 2010.
The next biggest city is Rainier, a riverfront city across the Columbia from Longview, Washington. Politically Rainier is much like the rest of the county: a slight but declining Democratic lean, and only having voted Republican recently in gubernatorial races.
In 2004 and 2006 Rainier’s Democratic share of the vote was within 1 point of the statewide Democratic vote, but since then in nearly every election is has been farther and farther below statewide Democratic performance.
Giving Kerry a 51.5-48.5% win in 2004, it was about D+2.7 compared to the national popular vote. In 2008 there was a Democratic surge, with Obama having a 57-43% win over John McCain, about D+3.3 compared to nationally, but that declined back to 53% in 2012, or only about D+1.1. Despite the improvement in 2012 over 2004, otherwise the raw numbers suggest declining Democratic fortunes, and compared to the national and statewide votes, the downward trend is clearer.
Rainier barely grew at all in the 1990s, less than 1%, and during the 2000s it grew about 1% less than the county as a whole. In 2010 it was just under 1,900 people. In both 2000 and 2010 the city was about 93% white, only 3-4% Hispanic or Latino.
The last city of significant size is Clatskanie, in the northwest of the county near to the Columbia River and the Clatsop County line. the city is little more than 1,700 people, of which in 2000 more than 40% were of Germanic or Scandinavian heritage. The city went from 94% to 93% white from 2000 to 2010, with slight increases among the Native American and Hispanic or Latino populations up to about 2% and 4%, respectively.
The city shrank during the 1980s and 1990s, but grew just a tiny bit faster than the rest of the county in the 2000s, and according to estimates, has also since 2010.
Clatskanie has a slight Republican lean, less so than Vernonia. Barack Obama in 2008 was the only recent winner of the city in presidential races, and in 2006 Ted Kulongoski narrowly got it while Kitzhaber in the last two gubernatorial elections lost it by big margins.
The trend relative to the state and nation is clear and negative. In 2004 Kerry’s 49% was a hair better than he did nationally, while both of Obama’s numbers, 53.2% in 2008 and 48.1% in 2012, were below his national numbers by 0.4% and 4%, respectively. In gubernatorial races it went from about R+3.5 in 2006 to over R+9 and R+15.5 in 2010 and 2014. Clatskanie is getting progressively more conservative than the country and the state.
The raw numbers are little better. Kitzhaber did worse in 2014 in Clatskanie than he had in 2010, while he did significantly better statewide in 2014 than in 2010. President Obama’s 48% in Clatskanie in 2012 was inferior to John Kerry’s 49% in 2004, even though Obama won the presidency and Kerry lost. Democrats can still win Clatskanie, as Jeff Merkley showed in 2014, but his was much narrower than Wyden’s wins there in 2004 and 2010. State Rep. Brad Witt (D-Clatskanie) may still be able to hold on there, but it looks likely that Democratic wins there will become rarer and rarer.
Almost half of the vote in Columbia County comes from small unincorporated communities and rural areas.
The numbers show some slight declines over the period in Democratic fortunes in most races, though larger in the gubernatorial races. Relative to statewide and nationally the declines are more significant.
Compared to the national results the trend is less stark. In 2004 and 2008 rural Columbia County voted nearly two points more Democratic than the nation as a whole, while in 2012 its voters voted almost 0.3% less Democratic than the rest of the nation.
Ballot Measures
Now that I have reviewed the recent partisan elections results for the cities and rural area of Columbia County, let’s take a look at how Columbia County has voted on ballot measures. Specifically, let’s look at some more cultural issues that were on the ballot, like abortion, gay marriage, and marijuana legalization, as well as economic issues, in this case taxes on the rich and corporations.
Columbia County tends to be more culturally conservative than the rest of the state. For example, in 2004 the state voted by nearly 57-43% to ban gay marriage, but Columbia County voted about 65-35% for the ban. All of the cities as well as the rural areas voted for the ban by more than the state as a whole, and rural areas (66-34%), Clatskanie (66-34%) and Rainier (68-32%) voted more heavily for the ban than the county as a whole. Vernonia voted slightly less for the ban, but about the same as the county as a whole, while Scappoose (64-36%, St. Helens (63-37%) and Columbia City (62-38%) voted less for the ban than the county as a whole.
In 2006 the state voted on a parental notification requirement for minors seeking an abortion. The state rejected the requirement by nearly 55-45%, while Columbia County rejected it by only about 3 points, or 51.5-48.5%. Vernonia (53-47%), Clatskanie (52-48%), and Rainier (51-49%) approved the restriction on abortion rights. The rural areas (51-49%), Scappoose (53-47%), St. Helens (54-46%), and Columbia City (54-46%) rejected the restriction on abortion.
In both 2012 and 2014 Oregonians voted on whether to legalize and regulate marijuana at the state level. While the state voted nearly 47-53% to legalize marijuana in 2012, Columbia County voted less than 46-54% for it. In 2014 the county voted more than 53-47% for legalization, while the state voted about 56-44% for it.
Scappoose had the biggest increase in support for legalization, going from 44% in 2012 to 55% in 2014. St. Helens had the greatest support for legalization, going from 50.6% support in 2012 to 58.6% in 2014. Vernonia had one of the smallest increases, but had a high floor of support in 2012: it went from 48.5% support in 2012 to 54.4% in 2014. Columbia City is one of the only one that couldn’t vote for legalization even in 2014, but went from less than 37% in 2012 to nearly 48% in 2014. The other anti-legalization city in both years was Clatskanie, but it was narrower, going from less than 39% to almost 49% in 2014. Rainier went from 44% in 2012 to a 50-50% split in 2014. The rural areas went from a worse than 55-45% against legalization to about a three point win for legalization in 2014.
On taxes and the minimum wage, Columbia County has voted in line with the state, though the margins haven’t been exactly the same. In 2002 the state voted on a minimum wage increase, and while the state voted a bit better than 51-49% for the increase, but Columbia County voted better than 57-43% for it, voting more than 6 points more for the increase.
In 2010 the state voted on a tax increase on high income residents, and a tax increase on corporations in a January special election . Both passed statewide with about 54% of the vote, and both passed in Columbia County within a point of the statewide numbers, at about 53%. Vernonia is the only city that voted against the measures, giving one over 46% of the vote and the other less than 44%. The rural areas also rejected the measures, but by narrow 49-51% margins. Clatskanie gave the measures their narrowest victories, only about a point for each. Rainier gave them about 2-3 point wins. Columbia City and Scappoose voters gave them about 55-56% of the vote. In St. Helens the measures got 19and 21 point margins.
In 2012 the state rejected a repeal of the estate tax by a 54-46% vote. In Columbia County the margin was only three votes, though it also rejected the repeal, but by 50.01% to 49.99%. Both Clatskanie and Vernonia voted for the measure with a bit more than 53% of the vote, and the rural areas also supported it by about 52-48%. Rainier voted to retain the estate tax by nearly 52-48%, while St. Helens and Columbia City voted by nearly 53-47% to keep it, and Scappoose by over 53%.
There is a divide between the more conservative western side of the county and the more liberal eastern end, but the divide is not terribly big. No part of the county is overwhelmingly one way or the other. Even the rural areas and most conservative cities can vote Democratic or progressive, while even the more Democratic cities sometimes vote Republican or on the conservative side of a ballot measure. Despite an apparent trend away from Democrats, even in 2014 all but one city in the county voted Democratic for U.S. Senate, and the rural areas overall did too (and by a margin of better than 55-45%, no less), and the one city that didn’t still voted for marijuana legalization. At the same time, even the biggest cities, Scappoose and St. Helens, which are among the most liberal and Democratic, also voted Republican narrowly for governor.
Still, Columbia County since 1960 has only provided about 1.3-1.4% of the statewide vote in presidential elections. It’s not terribly populous, and neither are its individual communities. Ultimately it doesn’t matter much to statewide races if Clatskanie goes Democratic or St. Helens doesn’t. Still, in the last general election Columbia County’s vote was nearly 77% of the vote in Oregon House district 31, and 39% of the vote in Oregon Senate district 16. It matters that Columbia County gave Representative Brad Witt (D-Clatskanie) 56.5% of the two party vote in 2014. Ultimately, my Oregon Political Geography series assumes that every community, no matter the size, matters. And, frankly, it just interests me as the only county in the Portland metro area without a positive trend for Democrats.
As a county still very much involved in lumber and wood products production, it evokes a part of Oregon’s history when my grandfather and great-grandfather worked in the forests, in the sawmills, and paper mills. That era often seems irrelevant, even obsolete in some of the state’s metro areas. Still, change has not quite left Columbia County behind, and as it continues to help elect Democratic law-makers, it helps make way for Oregon’s future.