If we wanted to assess the effect of the Republican convention on Donald Trump’s numbers, now’s a good time—enough time has passed for the effects of the convention to seep in, but we (generally) don’t have new polling that includes any days of the Democratic convention. So let’s check in, all data from HuffPost’s poll aggregator Pollster.com:
2016 BATTLEGROUND PRESIDENTIAL MATCHUPS
|
7/28 |
7/19 |
6/30 |
6/10 |
5/12 |
US |
C+1.3 |
C+2.5 |
C+7 |
C+4.6 |
C+3.6 |
AZ (11) |
TIED |
TIED |
C+1 |
C+1 |
C+3 |
CO (9) |
C+5 |
C+5 |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
FL (29) |
C+3 |
C+2 |
C+6 |
C+2 |
C+4 |
GA (16) |
T+3 |
T+4 |
T+3 |
T+4 |
T+5 |
IA (6) |
C+3 |
C+3 |
C+4 |
C+4 |
C+4 |
MI (16) |
C+6 |
C+6 |
C+8 |
C+8 |
C+11 |
MO (10) |
T+7 |
T+6 |
T+3 |
T+5 |
T+7 |
NC (15) |
C+4 |
C+4 |
TIED |
T+1 |
C+3 |
NV (6) |
C+2 |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
NH (4) |
C+5 |
C+4 |
C+6 |
C+7 |
C+10 |
OH (18) |
TIED |
C+2 |
C+3 |
C+1 |
C+3 |
PA (20) |
C+3 |
C+3 |
C+4 |
C+4 |
C+7 |
VA (13) |
C+5 |
C+5 |
C+3 |
C+4 |
C+13 |
WI (10) |
C+8 |
C+9 |
C+10 |
C+12 |
C+12 |
So there you have it. Trump’s convention bounce was 1.2 points. That could also be noise, though I think it’s legit. He got a tiny national bounce. And at the state level, he even lost ground in some key battleground states. But don’t worry! He’s solidifying his hold on Missouri!
Consider this the baseline when we check in next week on whether Hillary Clinton gets a bounce out of her convention. (My prediction? Four points.)