of which I was able to see, either in real time or on video, just about all of the events.
The most obvious thing to note is how comfortable Clinton & Kaine are together. That comes across, and helps to connect with the various audiences.
It is obvious both parties recognize the importance of the two states toured, because the two conventions were held therein. For the Republicans, none of their candidates has ever been elected without Ohio, and Pennsylvania has remained elusive for the last 6 elections. From the standpoint of the Democrats, hold both of those states and it becomes very difficult to imagine a path to 270 electoral votes for Trump. In fact, if Clinton were to win those states, lose FL, GA, NC, IA, VA, NH, NV & NM and all other states perform as they did in 2012, you would have a tie.
Let me note several things I observed reasonably consistently at the various events, and offer some thoughts about them.
When Bill Clinton is introduced, even though he is not speaking, he gets huge applause. For lots of people there are still strong memories of how well the economy did while he was president. Seeing him supporting his wife reinforces those memories.
Tim Kaine talks about how both his father and Clinton’s father ran small businesses, and he always remembers to mention that his father’s shop had unionized Iron Workers. That resonates quite a bit, since many of those in the crowd are union. In Johnstown, at Johnstown Wire, a point was made of it being a union shop, where the union and the management cooperate. I think it was in Youngstown, where the candidates were being introduced by a UAW leader, he made the point that the huge Lordstown plant is so big it has two UAW locals. This reinforcement of unions and Democratic commitment to them is likely to resonate. As the campaign goes on, in heavily unionized areas people can be reminded that Trump has fought unions, and that he argues for bringing foreign workers because he claims he cannot hire Americans (if you look at the wages he has posted in his request for such workers for Palm Beach, it could be because he pays ridiculously low wage, well below the targeted living wage that the Democratic candidates support).
It is effective to talk about how Trump makes his products overseas, especially when the candidate — usually Clinton — will talk about a location in that state where the product could be made. That was done in both PA and OH, for glassware, ties, suits, etc. Yesterday, Hillary also noted that the shirt Bill happened to be wearing was made in Reading PA.
The trip is advocating for candidates in the states — In PA talking about McGinty to be a partner to Bob Casey in the Senate, and in OH Ted Strickland, whom Clinton describes as a long-time friend, to be a partner to Sherrod Brown.
I have watched a number of Trump rallies/events, although I have little interest in seeing more. He has not to my knowledge ever done what Clinton does at every event — specifically ask people to volunteer, and then, on this trip, mention that they are hiring organizers in the state (PA or OH). I point out that is an offering of the possibility of employment, albeit temporary.
At a number of events there are a large number of young people. Now granted, in Philadelphia the kickoff event was at Temple University, and the concluding event was in Columbus, home of Ohio State. It is summer, but there are certainly summer school students, and maybe others stay near the campus during the time off. What is interesting was to see and hear the enthusiasm of young people, something that got very loud when Clinton would talk about debt-free college.
Key for some of the areas she is going through, especially Johnstown and Youngstown. She talked about subsidizing apprenticeships, and even gave an example of for one union their trade people averaged 70K. For many in these areas there had been a history of trade work in which one could earn a could living without a college degree. Clinton is affirming more than one approach to earning a living. Given that her weakest demographic has been white men without college education, and that she is speaking to their aspirations, not merely invoking fear in them, she has the potential to limit how far Trump can go with that ever decreasing share of the electorate.
Hillary Clinton will probably never be a great speaker in large venues, although she could probably learn a bit about more modulation of her voice. Still, I think her message comes through.
Tim Kaine comes across as genuine and affable. He gets in his digs against Trump, but without resorting to harsh rhetoric, and often with a “gee-whiz” expression on his face. That is effective, and his mocking of Trump draws laughs, which I am sure will infuriate the Republican nominee.
By the way, it now rather clear that Donald Trump was confusing Tim Kaine with Tom Kean when he called Kaine a failed governor of NJ. Except it is worth noting the following
1. Kean was a Republican (albeit of a very different ilk that Trump or even of most modern Republican governors)
2. He served two terms, and in general was considered a very successful governor
3. He left office in 1990 — before the Clintons even came to Washington.
His more recent time in the news was to co-chair, along with former Congressman Lee Hamilton of IN, the 9-11 Commission.
Given that we have seen not only this error by Trump, but his saying that Putin was not going into Crimea when he already had, one could wonder how much of that is just plain ignorance and how much may represent some kind of mental deficiency?
So, in summary, I do not view the bus trip as something spectacular, but I think it was quietly effective. When Clinton and Gore did it in 1992, it was a new phenomenon. For many voters today this may seem new, but for those of us older folks there can be a “been there, seen that” reaction.
I nevertheless think that it, coming after the convention, pretty much nailed down Pennsylvania and went a long way towards securing Ohio as well.
On Ohio — the continued brouhaha over Trump’s reaction to Mr. & Mrs. Khan has given the press reason when they can, at gaggles for example, to keep asking Clinton questions about it. That will provide video on the evening news all over the state of Clinton answering calmly and demonstrating a very different temperament than Trump, thereby thanks to Trump reinforcing her message that he lacks the temperament to be President/Commander in chief. Further, as anyone who watched morning shows or who has read Mrs. Khan’s op ed or watched Lawrence O’Donnell, or .. . . this has given the Khans the opportunity to expand and drive home their message. It may have been the last straw for yet another chunk of voters who would otherwise have considered voting Republican in the Presidential contest. Putting that on top of what seems by now to be a clear bounce of at least 5 and maybe 7 or more points for Clinton (as compared to in general a 1-3 point bounce for Trump, mainly of some Republicans coming home), I am fairly comfortable for now with the convention and its followup in the bus tour.