Watching the immolation of candidates and campaigns hypnotizes us, craning our necks at a gigantic multi-lane pileup on the Democracy Parkway.
I don’t see Trump lasting past the middle of August. Information on when ballots lock, and what the internal “candidate substitution” protocols are in the Republican bunker remains scarce. California, at least, has a September drop-dead date for candidates to make the ballot. The peculiar indirect election by electors could spin out a substitution. That is all mechanics though — how does the mainstream politics of a “dump-and-replace” play out. The sad Thomas Eagleton fiasco is the only near-historical case.
Does the (inevitable) Trump exit devolve to a promoted Pence, does Cruz claim primacy of place, do the power-brokers go for a completely new choice? Rubio ‘cause he .. ¿habla?”
Will the media give a newly anointed candidate a honeymoon for being a “not-Trump”. Will the relief wave damage Clinton? Can the Democratic juggernaut turn course against the “new face”. I am hoping the deep pols are mapping scenario and campaigns, because the handwriting is on the wall.
The first round of commenters have all said, “Trump will never quit” with a nod to his narcissism. Yet, political swan dives are many, and often abetted. What happens first is the “trusted aides” go south. One of those will carry the “tax returns” on a key stick, and the choice for Trump will turn between a “resignation” and a tax fraud indictment. Yes, I think he can be pushed just like Humpty Dumpty.