Steady national polls and good state polls today for Clinton in WI and NH.
Those numbers are good enough for an 86% chance to win at Upshot and 85% at 538, 81% at PredictWise (markets) and 85% at PEC (Sam Wang’s site). All numbers subject to small fluctuation as simulations are constantly updated since I gathered these, but they are up from last week.
Jill Lawrence/USA Today:
The latest crazy idea from Republicans trying to figure out what to do on Election Day is a “negotiated surrender” to Hillary Clinton. That is, they endorse her in exchange for a few small items like, say, they get to pick her first Supreme Court justice.
One major sticking point: If she was ever foolish or desperate enough to agree to that or anything like it, she’d lose me and God knows how many other voters.
Jon Favreau/The Ringer on the inevitable media Trump comeback when they get bored:
Still, even if none of this [Trump improvement] occurs, the media will eventually grow tired of the “Trump’s finished” story line and move on to the much more clickable “Trump’s comeback” narrative. Any day now, some Quinnipiac poll that shows a tied race in Pennsylvania will force Democrats to lose control of their bladders. A Trump surge in a stray tracking poll will result in a CNN Breaking News Countdown Clock that will tick down the seconds to an emergency panel of 37 pundits. The sheer hysteria of the “How Could She Blow This?” pieces will dwarf the collective freak-out that followed President Obama’s first debate loss in 2012. It won’t be pretty.
And that’s when we’ll all need to stop, take a deep breath, and remember this moment…
In the coming weeks, Trump will try once again to make this election a referendum on Hillary Clinton. But this is a man who can only think about himself — who can only talk about himself — whose entire campaign is premised not on policies or vision or ideology, but on the single promise that he alone has the qualifications to lead this country.
It will always be about him. And we’ve learned over the past few weeks that to a sizable majority of Americans, that is what really matters.
Aaron Blake/WaPo:
The defenses of Donald Trump’s ‘Second Amendment’ comment don’t make sense. Here’s why.
Michael Crowley/Politico:
Trump's long dalliance with violent rhetoric
Beyond his own incendiary comments, he's done little to mute loose talk of killing Clinton and Obama.
Sarah Kendzior/Globe and Mail:
Mr. Trump’s comments are so beyond the pale that they have prompted, yet again, speculation that he is trying to get himself thrown out of the race. This is too charitable an interpretation. His comments are in line with a campaign that has always been a test of his fans’ limits and loyalty, of how much tolerance Americans have for bigotry and threats, and how much power Mr. Trump can wield over his base.
If someone assassinates Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump will abdicate all responsibility – but he will luxuriate in his own might. It is adoration he wants, and revenge he seeks as his beloved poll numbers fall. Though he runs as the candidate of “law and order,” he has repeatedly called for chaos, at one point in 2014 proclaiming that “total hell,” “disaster” and “riots” were necessary to make America great again. His loyalty is not to his country, but to how much influence he can hold, regardless who suffers – or who dies.
Those comments from Trump are a big deal and are not going away. They are far more important than the appearance of a story about Clinton’s emails, and other stupid stories (Clinton had the father of the Orlando killer at her rally, Trump had sex offender Mark Foley at his. It’s Florida, after all).
Dara Lind/Vox:
This isn’t to diminish the seriousness of what Trump said — or rather, what his followers may have inferred he said. To quote former CIA head Michael Hayden, “You’re not just responsible for what you say. You’re responsible for what people hear.”
It’s just ironic that Trump is being attacked for validating an extremist right-wing, pro-gun view in a speech in which he demonstrated (not for the first time) that he doesn’t really understand gun rights supporters.
Or maybe it isn’t. This isn’t the first time something like this has happened: Donald Trump, trying to express an orthodox conservative view, ends up saying something that lots of Americans find brutal and extreme.
Ted Mann/WSJ:
A top aide to New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie privately told a colleague in late 2013 that the governor had lied to reporters when he said none of his senior staff or campaign manager had any knowledge of the George Washington Bridge lane closure scandal, according to court papers filed early Wednesday.
In the filings in U.S. District Court in Newark, lawyers for a defendant in the lane closure trial scheduled for September disclosed a text exchange between two Christie staffers,Christina Renna and Peter Sheridan, during a December 2013 news conference, at which the governor said he had been assured that his administration and campaign had no knowledge of the closures.
“Are you listening?” Ms. Renna texted Mr. Sheridan, according to the filing. “He just flat out lied about senior staff and [campaign manager Bill] Stepien not being involved.”
Tweet storms on Trump and over the top rhetoric and Trump voters from James Surowiecki
and Chris Arnade:
and in an included but separate tweet storm:
Philip Rucker/WaPo on a Walmart mom focus group (middle class, not poor):
To these 20 middle-class mothers in the electoral battlegrounds of Columbus, Ohio, and Phoenix, the looming choice for president between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump inspires a mixture of fear, pain and disappointment.
“Nauseated,” said one woman.
“It’s like choosing which arm to cut off,” said another.
“I kind of wish we could start all over,” said a third.
Such is the mood of America’s undecided voters, just 89 days until Election Day.
Some conclusions:
1. It’s complicated. When the economy sucks, things fall apart.
2. Racism is racism, no excuse. And yet, with some Trump voters, it’s more than that.
3. Trump may turn out to have limited appeal, and also may just have gone too far.
4. My advice: convince them. If you can’t convince them, outvote them.
Yair Rosenberg/Tablet with a PSA:
Friends Don’t Let Friends Vote for Jill Stein
The Green Party presidential candidate presents herself as an authentic progressive alternative. She is not.
To be clear, this post is not meant as a criticism of Stein’s supporters. In my experience, many of these well-meaning individuals imagine they are voting for a bold progressive changemaker who won’t pander to special interests and who will demonstrate the knowledge and political courage to enact real reform. Even if Stein won’t win, these idealists believe that they are voting their conscience by backing the candidate who best represents their values.
The only problem is, upon closer inspection, Jill Stein bears no resemblance to such a candidate. Let us count the ways.
TIME:
Inside Donald Trump’s Meltdown
Polls show that Trump has failed to grasp one of the essential truths about this extraordinary contest: in a race between the two most unpopular major-party nominees in modern history, it’s in each campaign’s interest to train the spotlight on the other. Clinton wants the race to be about Trump. Which is what the publicity-addled Republican wants too. And why not? It worked for him in the Republican primaries. “I got 14 million votes and won most of the states,” he boasts. “I’m liking the way I ran in the primaries better.”
But the general election will likely be decided by groups of voters who are rarely among the cheering throngs at his rallies. This is a fact that Trump is only now starting to confront. “I don’t know why we’re not leading by a lot,” he admitted to a crowd of thousands in Jacksonville, Fla., on Aug. 3. One reason is that he’s getting crushed by minority voting blocs that Republican strategists have suggested courting, such as blacks, Hispanics and young women.