I’ve been collecting information about House seats which are potential opportunities to pick up seats. I started with a spreadsheet I found SOMEWHERE (probably from someone else on Daily Kos) and I’ve annotated it where I could with more specifics. I’ve also added other races where I found mention of them. No doubt, some of these are more longshots than others and some may only be considered hopeful in the most optimistic scenario. Still, with 45 races, the list gives me hope that a change in House leadership is possible.
If you are the source of the initial list, please forgive me and claim credit in the comments. I did not intend to steal your hard work. But, with Trump going way off the reservation, I think we’ve got to attempt a sweep that will give us the opportunity to pass the progressive solutions we so desperately need.
Here’s the list:
actor |
District |
Other Information |
Likely Net Gain |
Candidates |
Redistricting |
FL-10 |
|
2 |
|
FL-13 |
|
Crist v. Jolly |
VA-04 |
|
|
Republican held majority Democratic districts |
IA-01 |
|
2 |
|
IL-10 |
High education Cook County suburbs |
|
NV-04 |
High percentage of non-white voters. |
|
ME-02 |
|
Cain v. Poliquin |
Republican Held Open-seats |
MN-02 |
Minneapolis suburbs and exurbs. |
3 to 5 |
Craig v. Lewis |
NV-03 |
Las Vegas suburbs with substantial non-white population. |
Rosen v. Tarkanian |
NY-19 |
Suburban and rural district in the New York City media market. |
|
NY-22 |
Virtual dead heat in 2012 and is represented by a moderate Republican. |
|
PA-08 |
High education and income Philadelphia suburb. |
|
Second-tier Marginal Republican Incumbents |
AZ-02 |
suburban Phoenix – 50-50 race in last 2 elections. |
5 to 8 |
Heintz/Steele v. McSally |
CO-06 |
suburban and exurban Denver. |
Carroll v. Coffman |
FL-07 |
significant boundary changes from redistricting revisions. |
Parra/Huerta v. Valadao |
FL-26 |
Hispanic population growing at rapid rate. |
|
IA-03 |
Des Moines urban and suburban areas. |
|
NH-01 |
Manchester based suburban district, includes Boston suburbs. |
|
NY-01 |
Long Island district long represented by Democratic incumbent. |
Throne-Holst/Calone v. Zeldin |
NY-24 |
Syracuse and suburbs—Obama won by 16 percent in 2012. |
Deacon v. Katko |
TX-23 |
Heavy concentration of Latino voters, won in 2012 and lost in low turnout 2014. |
|
Districts Won by President Obama With Emerging Hispanic Constituencies |
CA-10 |
|
Unknown |
Eggman v. Denham |
CA-21 |
|
Parra/Huerta v. Valadao |
FL-27 |
|
|
Obama won 49 percent of this district in 2012 and 51 percent in 2008 |
CA-25 |
Deadly boneheaded remark (with video) by Knight, "I think that Social Security was a bad idea". |
Unknown |
Caforio/Vince v. Knight |
Open Seats With a Republican Majority but Historically Competitive |
FL-06 |
|
Unknown |
? V. DeSantis |
MI-01 |
|
|
VA-05 |
|
|
WI-08 |
|
|
Winnable Districts Lacking a Top-tier Recruit |
NJ-02 |
|
Unknown |
|
NJ-03 |
|
|
NY-11 |
|
|
VA-02 |
|
|
Republican Incumbents in Upscale Demographic Districts Subject to Trump Implosion |
KS-03 |
|
Unknown |
|
MI-11 |
|
|
MN-03 |
|
Bonoff v. Paulsen |
NJ-05 |
|
|
PA-07 |
|
|
VA-10 |
|
|
WA-08 |
|
Ventrella v. Reichert |
Third-tier Open Seat, Promising Demographic Changes |
PA-16 |
|
Unknown |
Hartman v. Smucker |
Strong Democratic Challengers in Republican Districts With a Close House Result in 2012 or 2014 |
NY-23 |
|
Unknown |
|
UT-04 |
|
Ovens v. Love |
WV-02 |
|
|
|
CA-49 |
52-46 Romney was 51-45 Issa in open primary |
|
Applegate v. Issa |
|