We suddenly saw a round of reporting this week on the (im)probability of the House actually flipping to Democratic control. As I mentioned in a post that generated a lot of excitement, what was once a total pipe dream is maybe, just maybe, becoming a consideration now. Serious political observers all say “no way” because serious political observers are natural skeptics. But since DK readers seemed especially enthused about exploring the prospects, I figure, why not dream a little?
So I dabbled with some numbers and charts and metrics that I have absolutely no experience with in an effort to develop some basic gauge that perhaps you all will help me refine over time. It all plays off my original post, which uses the Cook Political Report’s “Competitive Races” as a starting point.
That Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza first used that baseline to examine 40 races and suggested that any GOP candidate running in a district that was within 5 points of the Cook Report’s Partisan Voting Index (PVI) could be in the offing (rationale explained here). The basic concept is that, regardless of how good a House candidate is, it’s pretty difficult for them to run more than five points ahead of Trump in their district. So if Trump is running lower than 45 percent in the district (which he currently is nationally), it would make winning a majority nearly impossible for those candidates. Cillizza found 36 GOP candidates overall fell within that range, six more than the 30 needed to deliver House control to the Dems. It was a very blunt measuring tool, but the suggestion was, yeah, maybe it’s something to consider.
So below, I took the 40 Republican candidates who fell within that +5 ceiling and added a couple more metrics: 1) whether Obama or Romney won the district in 2012; and 2) the share of Latinos in the overall eligible voting pool in states where Latino voters could likely make a difference (California, Colorado, Florida, Nevada, and Texas).
I made several assumptions to find 24 potential gets for Democrats (which neither guarantees those wins, nor precludes other wins). First, I assumed any GOP House candidate running in a district that Obama won in 2012 would lose. Second, I assumed that any GOP candidate who was running in a district where Latinos made up more than 25 percent of the eligible voting pool would be voted out. (This was highly imperfect—the only reason I used 25 percent as a benchmark was because Cook rates Rep. Steve Knight of California as the state’s most vulnerable incumbent and Latinos make up 25.2 percent of the overall eligible voting pool in his district.) Third, I assumed any GOP candidate running in a likely/lean Democratic race, would lose—six overall. Fourth, I didn’t even consider the 11 Democrats in “competitive” races—the assumption was that, in a true wave election, they’ll win.
Using those assumptions yielded 24 Democratic pickups overall (18 among the toss up/lean R/likely R categories, and six among the lean D/likely D categories)—six shy of what’s needed. In the chart below, you’ll find the metrics, and here’s the 18 Democratic pick ups based on my assumptions (Italicized names are Freshman members): GOP Reps. Steve Knight, Carlos Curbelo, Robert Dold, David Young, Bruce Poliquin, NV-03 OPEN, Frank Guinta, Lee Zeldin, NY-19 OPEN, John Katko, Will Hurd, Jeff Denham, David Valadao, Erik Paulsen, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, Mike Bost, Elise Stefanik, Dave Reichert.
Disclaimer and request for help: I have no training in this area but decided to try to drill down a little further after one DK reader suggested it. There’s no fact checkers here or interns, just me wildly trying to piece something together on deadline. So if something’s incorrect, please feel free to point it out and I will make the correction on Monday. Otherwise, I welcome input about other metrics that might be useful or ways to improve upon on this chart.
Remember, it assumes a Democratic wave where Trump continues to implode and Republicans simply can’t outrun him enough to save their seats. It does not take into account any actual polling, the strength of the candidates, etc. It’s admittedly highly imperfect, but why not start somewhere?
Italicized name are Freshman members.
Toss UPs |
|
PVI |
2012 |
Latino Elig Vote share |
CA-25
|
Steve Knight
|
R+3 |
Rom+2 |
25.2% |
CO-06 |
Mike Coffman |
D+1 |
O+5 |
11.8% |
FL-26 |
Carlos Curbelo |
Even |
O+11 |
59% |
IL-10 |
Robert Dold |
D+8 |
O+18 |
|
IA-03 |
David Young |
Even |
O+4 |
|
ME-02 |
Bruce Poliquin |
D+2 |
O+9 |
|
Nv-03 |
OPEN (Heck) |
Even |
O+1 |
12.9% |
NH-01 |
Frank Guinta |
R+1 |
O+1 |
|
NY-01 |
Lee Zeldin |
R+2 |
O+.5 |
|
NY-19 |
OPEN (Gibson) |
D+1 |
O+8 |
|
NY-22 |
OPEN (Hanna) |
R+3 |
Rom+.4 |
|
NY-24 |
John Katko |
D+5 |
O+6 |
|
Pa-08 |
OPEN (Fitzpatrick) |
R+1 |
Rom+.1 |
|
TX-23 |
Will Hurd |
R+3 |
Rom+3 |
52.4% |
WI-08 |
OPEN (Ribble) |
R+2 |
Rom+3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Lean GOP |
|
|
|
|
AZ-02 |
Martha McSally |
R+3 |
Rom+27 |
21.6% |
CA-10 |
Jeff Denham |
R+1 |
O+4 |
26% |
CA-21 |
David Valadao |
D+2 |
O+11 |
39.4% |
CO-03 |
Scott Tipton |
R+5 |
Rom+6 |
18.5% |
Fl-07 |
John Mica |
R+2 |
EVEN |
19.2% |
MI-01 |
OPEN (Benishek) |
R+5 |
Rom+9 |
|
MI-07 |
Tim Walberg |
R+3 |
Rom+3 |
|
MN-03 |
Erik Paulsen |
R+2 |
O+1 |
|
NJ-05
|
Scott Garrett |
R+4 |
Rom+3 |
|
NY-23 |
Tom Reed |
R+3 |
Rom+1 |
|
VA-10 |
Barbara Comstock |
R+2 |
Rom+2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Likely GOP |
|
|
|
|
Ca-49 |
Darrell Issa |
R+4 |
Rom+6 |
17% |
FL-27 |
Ileana Ros-Lehtinen |
R+1 |
O+7 |
|
IL-12 |
Mike Bost |
Even |
O+2 |
|
MI-11 |
Dave Trott |
R+4 |
Rom+7 |
|
NY-21 |
Elise Stefanik |
Even |
O+6 |
|
PA-06 |
Ryan Costello |
R+2 |
Rom+3 |
|
PA-16 |
OPEN (Pitts) |
R+4 |
Rom+6 |
|
VA-05
|
OPEN (Hurt)
|
R+5 |
Rom+8 |
|
WA-08 |
Dave Reichert |
R+1 |
O+2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Lean Dem |
|
|
|
|
FL-13 |
David Jolly |
D+3 |
|
6.6% |
IA-01 |
Rod Blum |
D+5 |
|
|
MN-02 |
OPEN (Kline) |
R+2 |
|
|
NV-04 |
Cresent Hardy |
D+4 |
|
16.9% |
|
|
|
|
|
Likely Dem |
|
|
|
|
FL-10 |
OPEN (Webster) |
D+9 |
|
15% |
VA-04 |
OPEN (Forbes) |
D+8 |
|
|