The paper details today the best path forward for a Trump victory in November is by bringing non-voters in the 2012 general election to the ballot box in 2016.
The existence of a bloc of disaffected voters large enough to potentially swing the election Trump’s way is the main finding from an analysis of the first eight weeks of the daily tracking poll.
Whether Trump can convert a significant number of those potential supporters into voters over the final two months of the presidential campaign could determine whether the election ends up as a close contest or a runaway for Hillary Clinton.
This reliance on non-voters from 2012 is also why their tracking poll has rather consistently favored Trump over Hillary Clinton.
The design of the Daybreak poll means it reflects, more strongly than some other surveys, the views of those who didn’t vote before but say they will this year. As a result, the poll presents something of a best-case scenario for Trump — one in which he succeeds in getting large numbers of previous nonvoters to cast ballots for him.
So now we know why their tracking poll has been at such odds with the bulk of national polls. They have seen into Trump’s not so secret strategy of “loving the poorly educated’ whites and weight his strength with them and their strength at the ballot box very heavily.
Why would they buy into this belief when they acknowledge…..
Trump’s situation is even more challenging because of the difficulty of turning nonvoters into voters, a task for which Trump’s campaign may be especially ill-suited.
Trump has not spent money on the sort of sophisticated, but labor-intensive and expensive, turnout efforts that delivered victories to President George W. Bush in 2004 and President Obama in 2008 and 2012. In one battleground state after another, reporters have found his campaign lacking even rudimentary get-out-the-vote operations.
Because the media loves a horse race even and will ignore the fact that one of the two racing has already thrown their rider and is running wildly in the wrong direction.
Their current poll has Trump 45 to HRC 42.