Perhaps the most important state in the Dem coalition is Pennsylvania. When we have PA in our column, it means we’re very competitive and are on the doorstep of victory. When we have PA solidly behind Team Blue, the election is usually a rout.
Although Clinton has led in the majority of polls (RCP avg +5), we had not yet seen some of the breakout numbers that Obama and Bill Clinton had posted which scared their GOP counterparts into looking elsewhere. Suffolk had Clinton +9, which was an encouraging sign, but PPP had it at a narrower 5 point margin. Now we have some confirming proof of the actual trend.
Franklin and Marshall has a new poll out showing Hillary leading Trump in PA 49-38 among LVs and 48-35 among RVs. The “other” vote (which I take to mean 3rd party) is 6% LV, 9% RV. Undecided are at 8% in both. The poll was taken from July 29-August 1st (weekend following the convention).
Some notable data points:
*Clinton leads among women by 31 points. Trump leads among men by 6 points. Among white voters, Trump leads by 10 among white males. Clinton leads by 28 among white females.
*Clinton leads among white voters by 9 points. She leads among non-white voters by 69 points.
*Clinton leads in every age demo.
*Clinton leads among married and unmarried persons.
*Clinton is winning big in the Southeast suburbs (outside of Philly) by 40 points (60-20). This would include places like Bucks County where Romney was much more competitive in 2012.
*Trump leads among non college educated voters by 18 points. Clinton leads among those with some college by 9 points, and with college educated voters by 33 points.
While this poll says 11-13, I think these subgroup numbers point to a potentially even larger lead of 15 points or higher. Frankly, I have never ever seen results like these in a PA Presidential poll….ever.
www.fandm.edu/...