Leading Off:
● GA-Sen: Oh, for heaven's sake. You've got a vacancy on the Supreme Court thanks to Republican obstructionism, Democrats desperately trying to retake the Senate, and the prospect of Donald Trump getting to appoint the next justice, so what does Democratic Rep. David Scott do? He goes and endorses the Republican senator from his home state, Johnny Isakson. Said Scott, "I've always voted for Johnny Isakson. He's my friend. He's my partner. And I always look out for my partners." But how about his "partners" in the Democratic Party?
Isakson is a heavy favorite in November against self-funding businessman Jim Barksdale, but Georgia's is the rare blue-trending state that could unexpectedly find itself in play. And since a new poll from Abt SRBI shows Isakson up 48-42—the third survey released just this month that has him under 50—he's by no means a mortal lock.
So the last thing Barksdale needs is for people who purport to be his fellow Democrats to undermine his own candidacy in this way. And it's not just Scott: It turns out that former Gov. Roy Barnes and former Sen. Sam Nunn, two of the most prominent Democrats in the state, both donated to Isakson in recent months, and both, like Scott, made a point of calling the senator their "friend." How nice. They can console themselves with their friendship when Donald Trump names Judge Judy to the Supreme Court.
Senate:
● AZ-Sen: Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick seems convinced that focusing on term limits will help her in the general election. Kirkpatrick is out with her second TV spot, and she once again argues that "decades in Congress change people," so it's time for term limits. Kirkpatrick also says "we must protect Medicare, and never privatize Social Security," as well as kill terrorists and fix the VA. Kirkpatrick does not mention GOP Sen. John McCain, though it's clear she's trying to contrast herself with the 34-year congressional veteran. The spot is part of a reported $1.5 million ad buy.
● CA-Sen: Attorney General Kamala Harris has been the favorite against Rep. Loretta Sanchez in California's all-Democratic general election since the start, and Sanchez's path to victory has only become tougher over the last couple of months. Harris has always held a clear financial and name-recognition advantage over Sanchez, which is why we rated this contest as "Lean Harris" after June' top-two primary. Since then, Harris' position has only improved. Most notably, she received an endorsement from President Barack Obama, which, if history is any guide, will almost certainly help her with Democratic voters.
By contrast, Sanchez still needs to find a way to dominate with Republican voters while still holding on to enough Democrats to remain competitive in this overwhelmingly blue state. However, polls taken after the June primary show that a huge proportion of Republicans simply plan to skip the race. It also doesn't help that Sanchez seems to be intent on alienating Democratic voters: After Obama backed Harris, Sanchez suggested the endorsement happened because the two are both African Americans.
This is the first time California will host a one-party general election for statewide office, and things are still unpredictable enough that we're not willing to count Sanchez out quite yet. But Harris is in control, and Sanchez is going to have a tough time persuading Republicans who don't plan to vote for either Democrat to vote for her while simultaneously not repelling too many Democrats in the process. As a result, we're changing our rating of this one-party race from Lean Harris to Likely Harris.
● FL-Sen: What a scumbag. In a new attack ad ahead of the Aug. 30 Democratic primary, Rep. Alan Grayson has truncated footage of Rep. Patrick Murphy saying this:
"Unfortunately, we have to look at cuts across the board. We're going to have to look at defense. We're going to have to look at some structural changes to some programs like Social Security and Medicare."
Down to this, making it look like one seamless clip:
"We have to look at cuts across the board, uhh, to some programs like Social Security and Medicare."
What a bunch of malarkey, especially since it's followed by a series of increasingly angry seniors who berate Murphy, concluding with one who snaps, "You touch my Social Security and I'll break your arm." Should a congressman whose ex-wife has accused him of physical abuse really be running ads that feature violent rhetoric? Of course not, but after all, we're talking about a guy who has no problem with selective Soviet-style editing of his opponents' words. Pravda would be proud.
● IL-Sen: So the Tammy Duckworth settlement is on, after all? That's what the Illinois Attorney General's office, which defended the matter, is saying. The two Illinois Department of Veterans Affairs employees who had sued Duckworth, their former boss, over claims of workplace retaliation had, it appeared, settled the matter some weeks ago. But recently, claiming they'd been insulted by the Duckworth campaign's characterization of the deal, they declared that the settlement was off and that they were prepared to proceed to trial.
But the attorney general said that the plaintiffs were not entitled to back out of the agreement, adding that the case has been removed from the court's trial docket and that the judge has entered an order to enforce the settlement. Assuming all this holds up, the plaintiffs received some very bad advice, though Duckworth, who is trying to unseat GOP Sen. Mark Kirk, will be very glad the matter is put to rest.
● IN-Sen: Last month, Democrat Evan Bayh launched a surprise campaign for his old Senate seat, which he'd abandoned in equally surprising fashion six years earlier. Bayh's allies at the DSCC soon released a poll showing him with a massive 54-33 edge against GOP Rep. Todd Young. Team Red never released any contradictory numbers, and Young essentially confirmed he was badly losing when he bizarrely compared Bayh's name recognition to that of the Kardashians. There've been no independent polls here to confirm that Bayh's lead is anywhere close to 21 points, but the fact that the GOP can't produce any sane response to reassure Young's donors is a potent warning sign. As a result, Daily Kos Elections is moving this race from Lean Republican to Tossup.
So why aren't we moving the race further? While the GOP's silence when it comes to polling is notable, conservative groups have nevertheless started to open their wallets. In the last two weeks, the Koch-backed Freedom Partners launched a $1 million ad campaign hitting Bayh, while the NRSC also started a $700,000 buy. Meanwhile, Bayh's allies at the DSCC also began advertising two weeks ago, reportedly putting a hefty $1.3 million behind their buy.
In other words, neither party is acting like it thinks that Bayh has an insurmountable lead—at least not yet. It's also worth noting that the DSCC poll was conducted before a single GOP attack ad had aired. At the same time, Hillary Clinton's campaign has yet to advertise in Indiana, indicating it does not currently think the state is in play on the presidential level, something that helps Young.
Bayh might have an edge at the moment, but our race ratings are not meant to indicate where a contest stands right now but rather serve as a forecast of what we think will happen on Election Day. Both sides are, at present, treating this as a competitive battle; contrast that with, say, the Senate race in Illinois, where Republicans have all but abandoned Sen. Mark Kirk.
If we're lucky, we'll have some other polls to work off of soon, though Indiana is so infrequently surveyed that we could be waiting quite some time. In the absence of more polling, we'll be watching to see if outside groups on either side continue to air ads in the Hoosier State, or if they decide to spend elsewhere. If they wind up exiting Indiana, then that would spell good news for Bayh, and we'll revisit our rating accordingly.
● OH-Sen: GOP Sen. Rob Portman's new ad is set at a factory, as the incumbent brags that "[n]obody can compete with the United States of America when we're given a fair shot." Portman then says that China and other nations need to cheat to come out ahead, so he's standing up to his own party on trade and "fighting back against China when they threaten Ohio jobs."
Gubernatorial:
● MO-Gov: In a major, and apparently historic, move following Tuesday's primary, the Missouri Farm Bureau has endorsed state Attorney General Chris Koster for governor, making him the first Democrat the powerful organization has ever backed for statewide office since it began issuing endorsements 40 years ago. Koster, who was a Republican until 2007, has a long record of supporting agricultural interests and backed a controversial amendment to the state constitution guaranteeing a "right to farm" that many Democrats opposed. Koster's opponent in the general election, former Navy SEAL Eric Greitens, acknowledged to the bureau that he had no background in rural matters, leading to 76 percent of members to vote in favor of supporting Koster.
● VT-Gov: After spending the entire Democratic primary pledging that he would not self-fund beyond the $4,000 non-candidate donor contribution limit, ex-state Sen. Matt Dunne loaned his campaign a comparatively hefty $95,000. Ex-state Sen. Peter Galbraith, another contender, was not happy with what he saw as a complete act of hypocrisy, and he told Seven Days, "Can you believe that fucker? Matt Dunne really doesn't have the integrity to be the governor of Vermont. Imagine: Having self-funded in violation of his own campaign pledge, he then attacks me for having self-funded." Galbraith even made sure to note that he was speaking on the record.
Amusingly, Galbraith was not calling Dunne "that fucker" just days ago. After Dunne came out in favor of allowing towns to hold referendums to veto wind energy projects, Galbraith was quite happy with him, and even praised his rival. However, it appears that Dunne was hoping, with his flip-flop on wind power, to convince Galbraith to drop out of the race, a move that clearly didn't work. In any case, it's pretty jarring to see Galbraith going from commending Dunne to cursing him out in under a week. Ex-state Transportation Secretary Sue Minter is also competing in Tuesday's primary, and she might benefit from having avoided this snit.
House:
● CO-06: GOP Rep. Mike Coffman recently ran a spot pledging to stand up to either a President Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton, and it certainly got a lot of national attention. However, it's unlikely that many local voters will see it on TV, since Coffman's campaign says they're putting just $20,000 behind it. Meanwhile, the DCCC is out with a spot arguing that Coffman once pledged to support Trump, but it's running for an even-smaller $10,000.
● FL-10: The DCCC is backing ex-Orlando Police Chief Val Demings in the Aug. 30 primary for this safely blue seat, and they're arguing that she's the strong favorite to win. An in-house poll gives Demings 48 percent, while ex-state party chair Bob Poe and state Sen. Geraldine Thompson grab just 18 percent each. The self-funding Poe started airing ads weeks ago, while Thompson has very little cash.
● FL-23: Law professor Tim Canova, who is challenging Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz in the Aug. 30 Democratic primary, is out with another TV spot. Canova tells the viewer that his father died when he was young and Social Security helped him and his mom get by. Canova then argues that Wasserman Schultz "refuses to support an increase in benefits. In fact, she's missed the most votes of any Florida Democrat."
● MI-01: While Mitt Romney won this northern Michigan seat 54-45, Democrats often do well downballot in the state's Upper Peninsula and nearby environs. Team Blue is excited about its nominee, ex-state party head Lon Johnson, who is a formidable fundraiser. The GOP, by contrast, is not so enamored with its candidate, retired Marine Lt. Gen. Jack Bergman. On Tuesday, Bergman defeated two opponents, state Sen. Tom Casperson and ex-state Sen. Jason Allen, who'd both been placed on the first rung of the NRCC's Young Guns list in advance of the primary. Quite notably, the committee snubbed Bergman, and of Friday, it still hasn't added him to Young Guns. That's not a good sign.
And perhaps with good reason. Even though he won the primary, Bergman may not have what it takes to run a credible general election campaign: As of mid-July, he'd raised just $76,000 from donors since the start of the race. Bergman also loaned his campaign $270,000, but it's not clear if he's willing or even able to do more significant self-funding. In short, Democrats have exactly the candidate they want and Republicans are stuck with an unpredictable contender they don't want. As a result, Daily Kos Elections is moving this race from Lean Republican to Tossup.
● MN-02: Conservative radio host Jason Lewis, aka the guy that national Republicans do not want to win Tuesday's primary, is taking to the airwaves with his first ad. Like all such scoundrels who try to hide invidious rhetoric behind the mantra of just "telling it like it is," Lewis predictably declares that "all the politically correct politicians do is attack people like you and me who want real change." Lewis faces businesswoman Darlene Miller, who is backed by retiring Rep. John Kline, and ex-state Sen. John Howe. The winner will take on Democrat Angie Craig in this swing seat.
● NE-02: Freshman Democratic Rep. Brad Ashford is up with his first TV spot in his campaign to defend this 53-46 Romney district. Unsurprisingly, Ashford stresses bipartisanship, and brags that he's "worked with Republicans to fix Obamacare and pass a balanced budget amendment," but he insists he "won't compromise on keeping America safe, taking care of veterans, or protecting social security and Medicare."
● NJ-05: House Majority PAC has spent a hefty $773,000 against GOP Rep. Scott Garrett since June, and their allies at the DCCC are out with a poll arguing that the incumbent is in real trouble. The DCCC's in-house poll gives Garrett just a 44-42 edge against Josh Gottheimer, a former aide to both Clintons. Garrett has pissed off many of his old business allies through his anti-gay rhetoric and opposition to the Export-Import Bank, which has helped Gottheimer rake in plenty of money. At the end of June, Garrett still had a narrow $2.8 million to $2.5 million cash-on-hand edge, but Gottheimer has badly outraised him in recent months. Mitt Romney won this North Jersey seat 51-48.
● TN-04: On Thursday, GOP Rep. Scott DesJarlais turned back a well-funded primary challenge from attorney Grant Starrett, a former aide to Mitt Romney, by a 52-43 margin. (For reasons lost to history, the Volunteer State holds its primaries on Thursdays.) Tennessee's 4th Congressional District, which takes in many of Nashville's suburbs, is safely red.
DesJarlais has been hot water since late 2012, when voters learned that while he was a practicing physician, he had an affair with several of his patients, and tried to convince one to get an abortion. Last cycle, DesJarlais faced a primary challenge from state Sen. Jim Tracy, but Tracy was reluctant to use the congressman's scandal against him. Still, it hurt the incumbent badly, and DesJarlais ended up surviving by a miraculous 38-vote margin.
This time, Starrett likewise refused to directly attack DesJarlais over his past transgressions. Instead, Starrett ran ads arguing that DesJarlais' record wasn't conservative enough, hinted at the incumbent's baggage with a TV spot that argued that DesJarlais "failed to hold Planned Parenthood accountable." But Starrett still never took aim at DesJarlais' Achilles' heel. By contrast, DesJarlais didn't hesitate to portray Starrett as a California carpetbagger (Starrett, who first came to Tennessee in 2009 for law school, only moved into the 4th just before he ran for Congress).
We'll need to see if DesJarlais attracts another credible primary foe in 2018, but after two wins, potential challengers may be reluctant to face him. Still, both results were weak, and both reflected challengers who refused to go for the jugular. A smarter—and meaner—opponent could finish the job.
● TN-06: GOP Rep. Diane Black easily turned back a challenge from ex-state Rep. Joe Carr 64-32 on Thursday night. Carr had carried this seat during his 2014 primary campaign against Sen. Lamar Alexander, but Black had done little to upset conservative voters. The incumbent did run some ads here, and the underfunded Carr could not respond. This seat is safely red.
● TN-08: Ex-U.S. Attorney David Kustoff won the 13-way GOP primary for this safely red seat, defeating wealthy perennial candidate George Flinn 27-23. Flinn outspent all of his foes, but Kustoff had the resources to run his own ads. Kustoff was also backed by Mike Huckabee, which may have helped him stand out from the crowd. Shelby County Mayor Mark Luttrell looked like an early frontrunner, and he released a March survey showing him far ahead of his foes. However, Luttrell didn't end up spending much money, and he only took third place with 18 percent. To add insult to injury, Luttrell even lost Shelby County to Kustoff. 34-27.
● TN-09: While Rep. Steve Cohen's 66-33 win in the 2014 Democratic primary was his closest result since his initial 2006 victory, he had no trouble on Thursday. Cohen easily beat Shelby County Commissioner Justin Ford 86-10 in this safely blue Memphis seat. Ford, a cousin of former Rep. Harold Ford, reported raising no money, and he had a bad relationship with local Democrats from his time on the commission.
● WI-01: On Tuesday, we're going to see either an easy GOP primary win for House Speaker Paul Ryan or one of the biggest polling debacles in American history. The GOP pollster Remington Research, which did not identify a client, gives Ryan a massive 80-14 edge over challenger Paul Nehlen. Of course, on the eve of his shocking 56-44 primary loss two years ago, Vox Populi showed then-Majority Leader Eric Cantor beating Dave Brat 52-39, and even more infamously, McLaughlin & Associates had Cantor up 62-28. But Remington did well in Tuesday's GOP gubernatorial primary in Missouri, and Ryan seems like he's in a much better position than Cantor was, so it's unlikely that history will repeat itself.
Legislative:
● IA State Legislature: This fall, Iowa Democrats will target the GOP's 57-43 state House majority, while Team Red is hoping to overcome the Democrats' narrow edge in the state Senate. Over at Iowa Starting Line, Pat Rynard takes a look at the key contests for both chambers and where both sides stand financially.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, and Stephen Wolf.
