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PPP’s latest poll out of Nevada shows Hillary Clinton with a 3 point lead over Trump, 45-42 with 13% undecided.
*815 LVs
*IVR and Internet poll (opt in)
*+/- 3.4% MOE
*Date: Sept 6-7
Clinton leads among Latino voters 71-22, 73-12 among African Americans and 46-30 among Asians and other minorities. Trump leads among white voters 52-34.
She also leads 48-36 among women whereas Trump leads among men 48-42.
Some thoughts on the poll: Because it is an IVR/Internet poll, there is a high undecided among Dem favorable groups like African Americans. It is also doubtful that Trump is getting 12% of the AA vote or anything above 20% of the Latino vote.
Comparing the results to 2012 exit polls, Clinton’s margins are 2 points better among white voters, 5 points better among latinos, but about 20 points worse among AAs (93-6 vs. 71-12). On that AA #, it is very likely a bad or too small a sample as it doesn’t match up to national #s.
On age demos, Clinton is +17 among 18-29, +14, 30-45, tied among 46-65 and -8 among voters above 65. Obama was +23 among 18-29, +13 in the 30-39, -2 on 40-49, -5 on 50-64, and -12 on 65+.
Overall, I think these internals point to a larger Clinton lead, probably around the 6 points that Obama won by in 2012. She is right there with Obama among latino and white voters (slightly better in margin), and she is much better among older voters than Obama was, but Obama has bigger margins among younger voters (though HRC wins those demos). The AA and Asian sample sizes were too small and seemed like outliers, but HRC is well ahead there.
This doesn’t include 3rd party candidates, and there is only Gary Johnson and none of the above. (Marist got that wrong in its poll). Third parties have complicated the polling in NV, as it is unclear whether the wayward Berners will vote third party or stay with Team Blue.
I would note that this is the 8th poll out of the last 9 that show a Clinton lead in the state (these admittedly include a lot of junk polls like Internet surveys and 50 state surveys).
There is still a lot of work to be done in NV, but this is a State where Hillary can improve among younger white voters, grow her latino margin and ensure max turnout from African Americans. Based on national polling she also seems poised to do better among Asian voters than did Obama. I do think she is going to win this state by a margin that is higher than 3 points and likely closer to 6 points.