The Times wades into polling. They are using a different methodology that employs voter records instead of random dialing.
LINK
Mrs. Clinton leads by a single point, 41 to 40 percent, among likely voters in a four-way race that includes Gary Johnson and Jill Stein. The race is tied in the head-to-head race, 43-43.
The poll, the first of its kind by The Upshot, was based on voter records that allow unusually detailed analysis of the electorate.
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Unlike many public polls, the Upshot/Siena survey was conducted using voter registration files, the core of the “big data” that has transformed campaigning over the last decade. The voter file data here — from L2, a nonpartisan voter file vendor — includes information on the race, vote history and partisanship of every voter in the state, a big advantage for polling.
We used the responses to our poll to build a statistical model of the vote preferences of every registered voter, based on the information available in the L2 voter file. It’s the same basic approach taken by the major campaigns’ data analytics and targeting teams. The maps above are based on these estimates.
POC voters keep her in the race. Whites go 51-30 for Trump, blacks are 82-4 for Clinton, Latinos are 61-21 for Clinton.
More analysis:
The good news for Mrs. Clinton is that she still has a solid chance of a knockout blow in Florida. If she wins the state, it will be extremely difficult for Mr. Trump to win the presidency. He would need to sweep the most hotly contested battlegrounds — Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada and New Hampshire — then win somewhere Mrs. Clinton is thought to have a considerable edge, like Michigan or Virginia.
The same trends are not so evident in the state’s Senate race. Marco Rubio, the Republican senator running for re-election, leads his Democratic challenger, Patrick Murphy, by six percentage points, 48 percent to 42 percent.
An Upshot North Carolina poll is coming soon.
All in all, very thorough and data-oriented. Lots to look at. The race is close. Fight on!