If you are thinking about freaking out about Hillary (or elated about the latest poll), have a look at the trend line here. What you’ll notice is that Hillary has been winning nearly the entire time. Sometimes its by more and sometimes by less, but she is in the lead. You get similar results from more detailed state by state analyses.
These kind of polling results are really unlikely if Hillary is losing. Freaking out over this is like freaking out because Arsenal was up by 3 against Chelsea at halftime last Saturday because that is a small lead in basketball.
It’s also as unfair to Hillary as a lot of the other media coverage. It’s true that she is an unpopular candidate with a low ceiling. Against this:
- Hillary has run a disciplined and organised campaign that effectively uses many different surrogates.
- Hillary has run very effective ads that have made Donald Trump unacceptable in the eyes of around 60% of the electorate.
- Hillary has a good CV and is prepared.
- Hillary is winning.
So instead of freaking out that she isn’t winning in a blowout, we should be happy Hillary is willing to win in a slightly ugly way, if that is what it takes.