Here are my short thoughts on Debate #1.
It was the most lopsided debate in history, and I think it will have a significant electoral impact in the battleground states. Here’s why:
1. Trump got tagged as a Trickle Downer & Probably Lost the Midwest as a Result. Conservatives think Trump was pretty good in the first 10-15 minutes. He wasn’t. He engaged in a policy debate on the economy and lost. He staked out an economic nationalist position on the narrow issue of trade deals. Hillary never took that bait, and instead explained very cogently that the source of our economic mess was trickle down economics; that Trump is trickle down on steroids; and proceeded to explain just how devastating his policies would be. Why is this important? It unmasked Trump as an elitist, billionaire, in much the way Bernie Sanders would have done. He looked like all of those establishment GOPers that he ridiculed repeatedly. It exposed his faux economic nationalism as simply opportunistic. Most Midwesterners did not know any of this. This was new information to them. The other thing to note is that midwesterners hate trickle down. It’s the reason why Democrats have won a majority of the region’s electoral votes in the last 6 elections. It’s the reason why Democrats get a higher share of the white vote than they do in most other regions of the country (except the northeast). Trump understood what was happening to him, and that’s why he lost it. So, based on this alone, I think Iowa and Ohio shift to Clinton. PA and WI will move clearly into the high single digit/low double digit range.
2. Hillary Made Bold, Progressive Statements That No Presidential Candidate Has Ever Made in This Setting & That Means Bernie Voters will Back Her. How many candidates ever talked about climate change, green jobs, racial justice, systemic racism, gun control, misogyny, free college/debt relief? Even the great Barack Obama did not manage to hit such topics as hard as Hillary did in this debate. And she did this against a man who is an unhinged, overweight lunatic. There is no Bernie supporter who cannot honestly say that she didn’t bring the goods on these issues, and got that message across despite the interrupting chicken and wall of derp that is Trump. She gave Bernie voters a real reason to back her. She went to war against a neo-fascist and pulled no punches.
3. Hillary delivered many of her stump speech and ad tag lines very effectively to an audience that had never heard them. Trump will lose support among non-college educated white female voters and other soft supporters as a result. Hillary hit Trump repeatedly, obliterating him on the tax returns, ISIS, misogyny, birtherism. She was out there for all of us. Trump did nothing to rebut these claims and often reinforced them because of his scattershot, punch drunk manner of speaking. Any undecided voter would have to conclude that Hillary found a ring of truth in her remarks. This will reinforce the power of her own advertising. Non-college educated white females have been siding with Trump, but they are soft supporters. They have been mostly influenced by the incessantly negative media coverage. Hillary demonstrated Presidential character and made herself a more than acceptable choice for President. Trump did not meet that challenge. Do you really think that when faced with that choice that a number of women who are skeptical of HRC won’t pull the lever for her over Trump? In addition, Republicans will have to feel dispirited over Trump’s performance. This is the same Trump from his stump speeches. It just looks ridiculous when put to scrutiny.
The Republicans had Hillary in a box, and Hillary broke out of it. They’re going to have a very hard time redefining her. There isn’t a lot of time left in the election; voting has already started; and she has a bigger stage now than she did in the summer to drown out the negative media coverage.
All Hillary needs is an incremental improvement among millennial voters to win the election convincingly. If she also improves among white females (especially non college educated white females) she can get this into blowout range. I think this debate gave her a jump start on achieving these goals.