OK, the bad news first. The first six of these polls suck. Not just because of the results, but because they were in the field for 2 weeks (Aug 19 — Sep1). But the numbers are what they are.
Iowa: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...
Trump 44 (+3)
Clinton 41
New Hampshire: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...
Trump: 45 (+1)
Clinton: 44
Maine: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...
Trump 42 (tie)
Clinton 42
Michigan: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/…
Trump: 42 (tie)
Clinton: 42
Wisconsin: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/…
Trump: 38 (tie)
Clinton: 38
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Florida: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/…
Clinton: 48 (+3)
Trump: 45
North Carolina: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/…
Clinton: 49 (+5)
Trump: 44
Pennsylvania: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/…
Clinton: 48 (+6)
Trump: 42
Virginia: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/…
Clinton: 50 (+13)
Trump: 37
Now the good news. First, even a batch of polls that is absolutely lousy for Hillary doesn’t mean the world has ended. Take the 2012 Map (332-206) and give Trump the following states: OH (18), MI (16), WI (10), IA (6), ME (4), NH (4) and let Trump keep NC, and Hillary still wins 274-264.
I generally don’t like polls that are out in the field as long as these are. However, the first half of this poll was generally still good for Hillary, and the second half came as the national polls were cratering, so it sorta balances out. IA, WI, and OH are very winnable for Trump. Given who controls the state government in WI and all the anti-voting measures that have passed, how OH is a lean-red state, and how IA is likely the Obama state most clearly lined up with Trump’s demographic (lots of HS-only whites and few non-whites), I am nervous about the three of those. That said, if Trump is tied with Clinton in Michigan though, I’ll eat my hat.
So this is a pretty horrible batch of polling, but Hillary still is ahead. Hopefully now that the media is realizing things like there is a real pay-for-play story with Trump and they are calling out the NYT for not covering it, and that the “he-said she-said” that is going on is fundamentally unfair, things will get a bit straightened out. Plus you gotta believe that Obama, Obama, Biden, Warren, and Sanders campaigning will get better coverage than Giuliani, Christie, and whomever else is out there speaking on Trump’s behalf.