In the 2014 election, Republicans won a substantial victory in the Michigan legislature — albeit without a substantial win in the popular vote. Democrats got more votes for the state House, but Republicans won more seats. Republicans won by a slight majority in the state Senate, but won a whopping super majority of seats.
I wanted to see how the 2016 election came out by comparison, so I downloaded all the vote data from the Michigan Secretary of State’s website. Michigan didn’t elect state senators this time (except for one special election for a partial term for an empty seat). In the state House of Representatives, all the seats were up for grabs. After totaling the votes by party, the results are startlingly close:
Democrats: 2,260,633
Republicans: 2,263,633
In fact, it’s so close, and the numbers so similar, I doubted myself at first, and recalculated it another way, but it came out the same. The first thing to notice is that unlike 2014, the Republicans did win a slim majority this time. But it’s awfully close to 50/50. So with the vote so evenly decided, how did control of the Michigan State House of Representatives come out?
Republicans, 63 seats, Democrats, 47 seats
Yes, that’s right, even though about as many Michiganders voted for a Democrat to represent them as voted for a Republican, the Republicans won a solid majority in the state House. No doubt the better popular vote outcome for them than 2014 reflects the general 2016 rightward trend of the state, which voted for Obama twice. But the Republicans still didn’t do well enough to earn the control they have of the state legislature.
That took gerrymandering.
We need a lot more people to come out and vote in 2018, but unless something can be done about gerrymandering, we’re always going to be at a disadvantage, and that’s bad for democracy. The 2018 and 2020 elections will be crucial because they will determine who gets to do the redistricting after the 2020 census.
Below are all the candidates for the Michigan House from both parties, and the votes they got, which were used to produce the overall party totals above.
District |
Democratic Party |
|
|
Republican Party |
1 |
Banks, Brian R. |
24,947 |
11,558 |
Broman, William |
2 |
Scott, Bettie Cook |
25,409 |
9,962 |
Murray, Anthony Matthew |
3 |
Byrd, Wendell L. |
28,766 |
955 |
Brodersen, John |
4 |
Robinson, Rose Mary C. |
24,790 |
1,397 |
Schonert, Matt |
5 |
Durhal, Fred |
17,832 |
1,444 |
Patterson, Dorthy |
6 |
Chang, Stephanie |
26,301 |
2,125 |
Pollard, Attie |
7 |
Garrett, LaTanya |
32,896 |
806 |
Barr, Gina Alicia |
8 |
agnogo, Sherry |
33,270 |
1,470 |
Rynicki, Jennifer |
9 |
Santana, Sylvia |
27,560 |
1,668 |
Stephens, James |
10 |
Love, Leslie |
32,787 |
6,027 |
Brang, William |
11 |
Jones, Jewell |
23,731 |
12,749 |
Pope, Robert |
12 |
Geiss, Erika |
24,716 |
12,112 |
Soderquist, Erik |
13 |
Liberati, Frank |
23,744 |
15,336 |
Spencer, Annie L. |
14 |
Clemente, Cara |
20,252 |
12,178 |
Stasik, Darrell |
15 |
Hammoud, Abdullah |
21,739 |
13,452 |
Gerin, Terrance Guido |
16 |
Kosowski, Robert L. |
24,147 |
13,599 |
Morrow, Matthew |
17 |
LaVoy, Bill |
17,151 |
20,232 |
Bellino, Jr., Joseph |
18 |
Hertel, Kevin |
29,247 |
16,953 |
Polonaise, Renata |
19 |
King, Steve |
19,504 |
31,045 |
Cox, Laura |
20 |
Pobur, Colleen |
23,768 |
27,440 |
Noble, Jeff |
21 |
Pagan, Kristy |
28,260 |
19,292 |
Moss, Derek |
22 |
Chirkun, John |
21,487 |
12,341 |
Bonnell, Jeff |
23 |
Camilleri, Darrin |
24,100 |
23,777 |
Howey, Bob |
24 |
eterson, Dana |
19,553 |
23,968 |
Marino, Steve |
25 |
Yanez, Henry |
21,899 |
18,573 |
Naumovski, Steve |
26 |
Ellison, Jim |
26,785 |
18,333 |
LeVasseur, Randy |
27 |
Wittenberg, Robert |
36,392 |
11,007 |
Forrest, Kyle |
28 |
Green, Patrick |
22,680 |
11,514 |
Davison, Antoine M. |
29 |
Greimel, Tim |
23,097 |
8,253 |
Griffith, Garren W. |
30 |
Notte, Michael R. |
17,026 |
19,863 |
Farrington, Diana |
31 |
Sowerby, William J. |
22,735 |
15,743 |
owc, Lisa |
32 |
Manley, Paul |
14,631 |
25,629 |
Hornberger, Pamela |
33 |
Warda, Yani |
12,987 |
30,295 |
Yaroch, Jeff |
34 |
Neeley, Sheldon A. |
24,248 |
3,136 |
Brousseau, Page |
35 |
Moss, Jeremy |
44,737 |
8,639 |
Brim, Robert |
36 |
Young, Diane |
13,048 |
33,293 |
Lucido, Peter J. |
37 |
Greig, Christine |
29,181 |
17,209 |
Swoboda, Mitch |
38 |
McCusker, Amy |
20,711 |
28,205 |
Crawford, Kathy S. |
39 |
Stack, Michael |
20,975 |
25,024 |
Kesto, Klint |
40 |
Bedi, Nicole |
26,669 |
30,664 |
McCready, Michael D. |
41 |
Peltonen, Cyndi |
20,606 |
26,708 |
Howrylak, Martin |
42 |
Johnson, Timothy |
17,309 |
34,015 |
Theis, Lana L. |
43 |
Villella, Ted |
16,309 |
30,923 |
Tedder, Jim |
44 |
Venie, Mark |
15,470 |
33,731 |
Runestad, Jim |
45 |
Golden, Ted |
17,792 |
29,121 |
Webber, Michael |
46 |
Lillis, David |
14,642 |
33,073 |
Reilly, John |
47 |
Van Houten, Keith |
12,918 |
32,616 |
Vaupel, Hank |
48 |
Faris, Pam |
22,888 |
19,641 |
Reno, Joseph |
49 |
Phelps, Phil |
24,862 |
11,458 |
Baker, Jeremy A. |
50 |
Sneller, Tim |
22,773 |
20,992 |
Matheny, Michael N. |
51 |
Bladzik, Ryan |
17,050 |
30,468 |
Graves, Joseph |
52 |
Lasinski, Donna |
27,620 |
23,535 |
Clark, Randy |
53 |
Rabhi, Yousef |
35,502 |
7,176 |
Bissell, Samuel |
54 |
Peterson, Ronnie D. |
30,148 |
10,053 |
Jardine, Kevin |
55 |
Zemke, Adam F. |
30,097 |
13,312 |
Baird, Bob |
56 |
Redmond, Tom |
16,316 |
24,509 |
Sheppard, Jason M. |
57 |
Schmidt, Harvey |
18,332 |
23,698 |
Kahle, Bronna |
58 |
Hamaty, Mary |
8,968 |
27,444 |
Leutheuser, Eric |
59 |
Higgins, Carol L. |
12,117 |
24,342 |
Miller, Aaron |
60 |
Hoadley, Jon |
26,570 |
9,595 |
Ross, Alexander |
61 |
Fisher, John |
22,755 |
25,149 |
Iden, Brandt |
62 |
Haadsma, Jim |
17,490 |
17,699 |
Bizon, John |
63 |
Shiflea, Lynn |
14,749 |
26,878 |
Maturen, David C. |
64 |
Brooks, Ron |
13,443 |
22,426 |
Alexander, Julie |
65 |
Johnson, Bonnie |
14,321 |
25,098 |
Roberts, Brett |
66 |
Brown, Annie |
18,568 |
22,024 |
Griffin, Beth |
67 |
Cochran, Tom |
24,929 |
20,698 |
Clark, Leon R. |
68 |
Schor, Andy |
28,373 |
8,365 |
Pilon, Randy |
69 |
Singh, Sam |
29,366 |
13,585 |
Nastas, George |
70 |
Hart, Ken |
10,625 |
21,001 |
Lower, James A. |
71 |
Abed, Theresa |
20,926 |
26,315 |
Barrett, Tom |
72 |
Shoemaker, Steve |
18,693 |
26,343 |
Johnson, Steven |
73 |
Havens, Deb |
17,885 |
35,216 |
Afendoulis, Chris |
74 |
Bigger, Robin |
13,915 |
29,255 |
Verheulen, Rob |
75 |
LaGrand, David |
25,868 |
7,996 |
Rossiter, Chad C. |
76 |
Brinks, Winnie |
27,046 |
18,473 |
O'Neill, Casey J. |
77 |
Knight, Dana J. |
14,528 |
27,946 |
Brann, Tommy |
78 |
Hill, Dean E. |
12,529 |
26,037 |
Pagel, Dave |
79 |
Seats, Marletta |
15,461 |
23,657 |
LaSata, Kim |
80 |
Andrysiak, John |
12,376 |
29,721 |
Whiteford, Mary |
81 |
Sternberg, Stewart |
12,633 |
28,068 |
Lauwers, Dan |
82 |
Guerrero DeLuca, Margaret |
13,492 |
29,962 |
Howell, Gary |
83 |
Frank, Jim |
12,345 |
23,108 |
Hernandez, Shane |
84 |
Wencel, James L. |
14,026 |
26,142 |
Canfield, Edward J. |
85 |
Karhoff, Anthony David |
15,124 |
24,683 |
Frederick, Ben |
86 |
Mason, Lynn |
16,516 |
28,617 |
Albert, Thomas A. |
87 |
Anderson, Eric |
12,955 |
30,957 |
Calley, Julie |
88 |
Nagy, Kim |
11,410 |
34,356 |
Victory, Roger |
89 |
Meyer, Tim |
17,051 |
30,340 |
Lilly, Jim |
90 |
Yedinak, Mary M. |
11,533 |
30,968 |
Garcia, Daniela |
91 |
Lamonte, Collene |
18,558 |
20,959 |
Hughes, Holly |
92 |
Sabo, Terry J. |
22,584 |
10,528 |
Davis, Marshall |
93 |
Derke, Josh |
15,508 |
29,328 |
Leonard, Tom |
94 |
Seamon, Kevin C. |
16,402 |
30,150 |
Kelly, Tim |
95 |
Guerra, Vanessa |
23,809 |
8,419 |
Tanner, Dorothy |
96 |
Elder, Brian K. |
22,992 |
16,665 |
Scholl, David |
97 |
Townsend, Robert |
13,074 |
24,124 |
Wentworth, Jason |
98 |
Malicoat, Geoff |
16,975 |
25,642 |
Glenn, Gary |
99 |
Mielke, Bryan |
15,291 |
18,358 |
Hauck, Roger |
100 |
Clarke, Sandy |
12,514 |
25,721 |
VanSingel, Scott A. |
101 |
Scripps, Dan |
23,719 |
27,852 |
VanderWall, Curt |
102 |
Gabert, Douglas |
11,099 |
24,761 |
Hoitenga, Michele |
103 |
Stancil, Jordan |
18,589 |
25,988 |
Rendon, Daire L. |
104 |
Coffia, Betsy |
21,864 |
26,020 |
Inman, Larry C. |
105 |
Knight, Wyatt |
14,322 |
33,509 |
Cole, Triston S. |
106 |
Kennedy, Robert |
16,937 |
29,798 |
Allor, Sue |
107 |
Bellfy, Phil |
14,781 |
30,131 |
Chatfield, Lee |
108 |
Celello, Scott A. |
19,725 |
22,013 |
LaFave, Beau Matthew |
109 |
Kivela, John |
25,380 |
13,892 |
Pfister, Kevin W. |
110 |
Dianda, Scott |
23,532 |
15,016 |
Markkanen, Gregory |
Note: There were also 52,389 votes for Libertarians, 13,234 votes for Green Party candidates, 7,720 votes for the US Taxpayers party, and 3,680 votes for candidates with no party affiliation, but they didn’t win any seats. When I first ran the analysis I thought the Democrats got about 21,000 more votes than the Republicans because of some votes to fill partial terms that ended on January 1 of this year. (It seems odd to elect someone in November for a term that expires when January rolls around, but so be it.) Those elections were excluded from the final tally.
(I diary so infrequently, I’m not sure what tags to put on this, so any suggestions or help from the tag fairies will be greatly appreciated.)