When Missouri’s house district #50 was redrawn after the 2010 census, it was thought to be a Republican stronghold. While the district contains a fair slice of the more liberal Columbia, Missouri, the legislators had roped in enough rural districts that they believed it would provide a unique advantage for Republicans.
That early advantage held true from 2011 to this year, as Republicans often found themselves facing a limited challenge. More than the makeup of the district, though, were campaign finance rules which turned away many challengers.
Prior to 2016, Missouri’s most wealthy could scare away challengers thanks to unlimited donation standards, allowing them to write huge checks to favored candidates. Rex Sinquefeld, Missouri’s native conservative billionaire, tested those limits, giving more than a million dollars to at least one candidate, and spending obscene amounts in the general.
But thanks to a ballot initiative last fall, Missouri’s residents said goodbye to unlimited giving, and for the first time, many Democratic candidates feel as though they might have a chance to get into the game.
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More than $100 million in large contributions — checks larger than $5,000 — were doled out to Missouri campaigns since the Aug. 2 primary. That’s four times more than the same period in 2014 and more than double the total in 2012.
On Tuesday, Missourians decided to turn off the spigot.
Seventy percent of voters approved an amendment to the state constitution capping donations to candidates at $2,600 per election and to political parties at $25,000. The amendment also imposes restrictions aimed at preventing political committees from obscuring the source of their money.
The change has certainly been helpful for Skelton, who has considerably outraised her Republican counterpart, but also for the interest of those who run. This is huge for Missouri, who are looking not just at the outcome of this race, but also future recruiting.
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The 50th House District was drawn after the 2010 U.S. Census to give Republicans a 55-to-45 percent edge over Democrats.
Whether Democrats can compete is a mystery. Republican Caleb Jones did not face Democratic competition here in four elections to the Missouri House. In January, he took a job in Gov. Eric Greitens’ administration, setting up the special election to fill out the remaining year of his term.
Skelton has netted just over $98,000 in the race while Walsh has raised $60,000, according to Missouri Ethics Commission reports filed in the week before the election. Skelton said the numbers even out when considering the aid Walsh has received from state GOP committees.
Make no mistake, this is an uphill battle for Skelton, but the excitement has certainly been on her side. In one of her final mail pieces, Republican Sarah Walsh highlighted among her credentials are work done for a “pregnancy crisis center” normally used to fool women looking for Planned Parenthood, and attack Skelton for receiving small money donations from Missouri University faculty members known to have been supportive of ConcernedStudent1950, a group that highlighted concerns with racism on the Columbia campus.
No matter what happens tomorrow, Skelton’s efforts and fundraising certainly signal a change in how business will be done in Missouri for 2018.
And that alone should put a scare into a lot of Republicans.