According to Baylor College researcher Peter Hotez, Texas is high on the list of places trending towards unleashing a major measles outbreak.
Could large-scale measles outbreaks and deaths return to the US? The measles virus is one of the most highly transmissible human infectious disease agents known, with a basic reproduction number (R0) of 12–18 [4]. This number means that a single primary case in a susceptible population would generate on average 12–18 new cases [4]. Because R0 is so high for measles, vaccine coverage among a population needs to be extremely high, typically exceeding 90%–95%, in order to prevent a measles outbreak in a school or similar setting [4]. However, the latest numbers from Texas indicate a serious downward trend in vaccine coverage to the point where there is a high risk that measles outbreaks will return.
According to the Texas Department of State Health Services, there are now almost 45,000 children with non medical or “reasons of conscience” exemptions to school immunization laws, almost double the number of exemptions in 2010 [5,6] and a 19-fold increase compared to 2003 (Fig 2) [7].
As Hotez points out, while we cannot be one hundred percent sure that growth in the “anti-vaxxer” movement is to blame for these decreases in immunization, we can all agree that the growth of the anti-vaxxer movement is probably 95 percent to blame. Austin’s KXAN News points out that there are level-headed Democratic leaders in Texas who are trying to push for legislation that would require parents to make a more informed decision.
Austin Democrat Donna Howard plans to push a bill this legislative session. It would require parents to meet with a doctor before they decide not to vaccinate their children.
Last year, nearly 45,000 Texas students opted out of school-required vaccines. That’s up nine-percent from the year before.
Vaccinate your children.