The incredible people of Daily Kos’ Elections have compiled the Q3 fundraising numbers in this handy spreadsheet and there’s been some analysis spread between the last few Daily Digests, but I decided to break it down all in one helpful post with my thoughts and outlook for the 2018 House Elections. As always, comments/thoughts are always appreciated! So let’s get started:
There were 31 seats where a GOP incumbent was outraised by a single Democratic challenger: CA-04, CA-45, CA-25, CA-49, CA-48, CA-50, FL-06, GA-07, IA-03, IL-12, IN-09, KY-06, MI-08, MO-02, MT-AL, NC-09, NJ-11, NY-11, NY-19, NY-22, OH-07, OK-05, PA-07, PA-16, SC-01, TX-07, VA-05, VA-07, WI-01, WI-06
General thoughts: There's a few cases here. The first is the incumbents who were already in a lot of trouble. This is some of the endangered California Republicans: Issa (CA-49), Rohrabacher (CA-48), Knight (CA-25), who are quickly in danger going the way of the Dodo bird. Others in this category include Mike Bost (IL-12), David Young (IA-03), Pat Meehan (PA-07), Lloyd Smucker (PA-16 and all time great name), Rodney Frelinghuysen (NJ-11), John Faso (NY-19), and Claudia Tenney (NY-22). Where it gets interesting is the seats that were only fringely competitive or not competitive at all. Breaking them down:
- MI-08: Mike Bishop. An R+4 seat that Trump and Romney both won narrowly, it combines both very conservative rural counties with more moderates and liberal East Lansing (thanks, Gerrymandering). Bishop is on Democratic target lists but wasn’t considered a very competitive one. However, Elissa Slotkin, an ex-Obama national security advisor outraised Bishop by almost $100 K, reeling in $451 K. Recently, Cook Political moved this to Lean R and if it continues this way, it will be a tossup.
- CA-50: Duncan Hunter. This is an R+11 district. It shouldn’t be close. But Duncan Hunter is currently under investigation and he just raised only $67 K. And in some parts of America, people still feel morally scummy about voting for politicians who are under investigation. Yes, he’s wealthy, but that’s pitiful in a very red district. Two Democrats outraised him for this seat. Something to watch. Could be a potential steal for Dems.
- OK-05: Steve Russell. Democrats have had a recent slew of special election victories in dark red legislative districts in Oklahoma, perhaps because the tea party agenda has messed up this state deeply. I’ve seen some people mark this seat as a possible pickup, but this is an R+10 district. It did swing towards Hillary, as most suburban areas (this is OKC) did but Trump still won it by 13. However, Russell being outraised by a Democrat has me wondering hard.
- MO-02: Ann Wagner. This is a lot like Steve Russell’s OK-05, a suburban district in traditionally Republican suburbs (this time STL). At R+8, it’s a bit more liberal than OK-05, but still pretty red. Trump won it by 11, but in theory it could be competitive. Interesting trivia, this seat was held by each of the last two people to face Claire McCaskill (Jim Talent and Todd Akin) and could’ve been three but Wagner decided to seek reelection. However, this seat seriously entered my radar after Cort VanOstran outraised Wagner ($219-211 K) and will be interesting to watch.
- IN-09: Trey Hollingsworth. This southern Indiana seat includes some Indiana Louisville suburbs but a lot of very conservative area, accounting for its R+13 status, much more conservative than the old IN-09 which was Baron Hill’s old district (that was R+6) . However, carpetbagger Trey Hollingsworth ran into trouble last fall for that very reason and underperformed Trump. In Q3, two (!!) Democrats outraised Hollingsworth. In this kind of district, that’s inexcusable for Hollingsworth, but begins to make me think of the possibility that one of those Dems pulls a Collin Peterson and wins it.
- WI-06, CA-04, OH-07: These are really just WTF? districts. They are on no one, not even the most optimistic Democrat’s target list. Yet a Democrat hauled in more cash than the GOP incumbent. Start of a trend? Only time will tell.
There were 10 seats where a GOP incumbent was not outraised by a single challenger, but by the sum of their challengers: CA-39, CO-06, IA-01, IL-13, IL-14, KS-03, NJ-07, NY-21, TX-23, VA-10
General thoughts: This category I framed like this because many of these races have a bunch of challengers where no single one has emerged from the pack. Plus, if one goes to donate money to defeat Barbara Comstock for instance, you can donate to almost 10 different people and thus, it’s not surprising that one singular person hasn’t outraised an incumbent when all the GOP money is going to one person while all the Dem money is spread out. As for the list itself, it’s basically a greatest hits of most vulnerable Republicans. All of these districts should be among the first to fall in a Democratic wave. Talking about all 9 would be redundant so I’ll just focus on three:
- IA-01: Rod Blum. This northeast Iowa district is a pretty liberal one and has a D+1 PVI. While Obama was winning statewide by 7, he won this by 13. While Trump was winning statewide by 9, he won this by 4. In both cases, it was left of center, which makes it a ripe pickup opportunity. Blum has ran in two very favorable pro-R cycles in Iowa and only narrowly won both times. 2018 likely won’t be won. While Bum raised $158 K, two challengers raised $152 and $134 K. He is wealthy but to see a pair of $100 K+ challengers is a good sign for Democrats.
- CO-06: Mike Coffman. Mike Coffman will be a tough out. He’s in a D+2 district who’s managed to hang on despite several good challenges, but this could be the toughest environment he’s had to deal with. He raised a solid $276 K, while his challengers both raised over $150 K. Interestingly, when PPP released a bunch of house level polls that were all really bad for Republicans, Coffman was the only one doing well… sorta. While he led Jason Crow by 7, he only had 43% of the vote, and incumbents polling that low is generally a bad sign. Interesting to watch however.
- NY-21: Elise Stefanik: This is an upstate New York Obama/Trump district, and Stefanik, one of the youngest members of congress, has carved out a niche for herself. However, despite raising over $250 K, she’s up against a challenger who raised over $200 K as well and a second who raised over $100 K. This is a tough district for Dems, but maybe they’re putting it on the table.
There were 4 open GOP seats where the sum of Dems raised more than the sum of GOPers: MI-11, FL-27, WA-08, KS-02
General thoughts: This is looking at the open seats that fundraising data existed for. PA-15 for instance just opened up so it’s too early to get good data on. In Democratically held seats, NH-01 opened up too late to get data on, while the tricky MN-01 looks very good for Dems and NV-03 looks strong as well. As for the 4:
- MI-11: Dave Trott abandoned this seat and have left GOPers without a candidate, which makes this kind of unfair. But even if they had one, would they have two who both raised over $200 K? Looking at the ‘cross country numbers…. nope. Dems did though and that’s worth pointing out.
- FL-27: Is it too early to declare a contested house race over? I guess not but man oh man. This is a blue seat at the presidential level and it looks to be blue at the Congressional level too. The numbers are so ugly that children should cover their eyes. Democratic candidates raised $1.62 M. GOP candidates raised $57 K.
- WA-08: Dino Rossi apparently hauled in a bunch of money out of his a**, $579 K in fact. Yet, the sum of Dems outraised him by $43 K, with two raising over $200 K. This swingy seat left open after Dave Reichert ran for the hills looks good for Democrats so far.
- KS-02: Paul Davis, ex-candidate for Kansas Governor is fundraising up the wazoo. A handful of GOP candidates have raised $178 K, while Davis has raised $400 K. Good sign for Dems in a very red district.
House GOP seats where fundraising was close, either between one challenger or the sum: CO-03, IL-06, MI-01, MI-07, NC-13, NE-02, NY-01, PA-06, TX-21, TX-32, WA-05, WV-02
General thoughts: This is less impactful but simply just a look where is fundraising close. Where are Democrats doing decently well/looking like they’ll have a shot? Some of these seats were already going to be competitive, like IL-06, PA-06, TX-32, NE-02. Others are more interesting:
- MI-07: Tim Walberg. Walberg has held this district since 2007, with one interruption, from 2009-2010, when it was held by Mark Schauer. Schauer beat Walberg in the old MI-07, which was more left leaning than the current R+7 one. However, in 2012, Obama lost this district by just 3, as opposed to Clinton’s 17 point lost. Walberg actually ran behind Trump in this district facing a pretty solid challenger in Gretchen Driskell. Driskell is back to take on Walberg and is holding ground, with him raising $252 K to her $226 K. I’ve long considered the aging Walberg as a retirement candidate and this is something to watch.
- NY-01: Lee Zeldin. Zeldin has held this formerly Democratic Long Island seat since 2015. Obama narrowly won it in 2012 but Trump romped here like he did across Long Island. Zeldin coasted to reelection in 2016 but there’s now a bunch of candidates after him. While he raised a whopping $577 K, Perry Gershon, a former real estate guy raised $441 K, and several other candidates reeled in money as well. Suffolk County legislator Kate Browning just got in the hunt as well so this will be fun to track going forward.
- WV-02: Alex Mooney. This is a West Virginia seat, which means it’s REALLY red. But it’s the bluer of the WV seats. Mooney is a very, very weak candidate for the record. While Trump won last fall by 36 in WV-02, Mooney won by just 16, after winning by just 3 in 2014. He’s facing a pair of Democrats who both raised over $100 K while only raising $218 K himself. This will be interesting to watch going forward.
The Big Whiffs: PA-08, NY-24, ME-02, CA-21
There were only a few seats that were glaringly obvious letdowns for Democrats. In Pennsylvania’s 8th, Democrats had a bad fundraising report because they haven’t been able to find anyone of substance to run against Mike Fitzpatrick. This of course is rather stunning given that Fitz won by just 8 last fall and Trump and Romney both won the district by less than 0.5%. This should be a tossup seat and could be one if Dems could just find a candidate. In a year where recruiting has been higher than ever, this one is strange. In New York’s 24th, Dems missed the home run candidate in Syracuse Mayor Stephanie Miner. Despite this being a very blue district, John Katko has been a tough out and that perhaps accounts for some of the reason why candidates have been unwilling to jump in. But Democrats will need to find someone better than the people they currently have. California’s 21st is another enigma: a very blue district where David Valadao has been tough to defeat. Only Emilio Huerta, who lost to Valadao last fall, has been in the race and he’s not knocking down the fundraising walls. It will be worth watching whether Dems can scrape up someone better. Maine’s 2nd is a bit unclear. Bruce Poliquin has won tight races in the past two cycles and it’s a swingy Obama/Trump district which makes him a top target. No one raised a lot of money against him, but that could be simply because the top Dem recruit, Jared Goldman, didn’t get in until the early September. Right now it looks ugly, but Q4 fundraising will be a lot more illuminating.
Overall upshot and conclusion: There is no other way to classify this except being very, very good for Democrats. As noted in this Politico piece, fundraising is currently at a historic pace for Democrats and they are doing everything they can to be in position to capitalize on a favorable Trump-inspired environment. As we mentioned here, there were 45 seats where Democrats outraised Republicans, and that doesn’t count some seats that just opened up. Keep in mind they have to win 24. That’s a huge start. I will give my full breakdown of how things are shaping up when the calendar turns to 2018 in January, but right now, all signs point to good things. Trump’s approval rating is in the high 30s which history tells us means bad things for the president’s party. Democrats have consistently lead the Generic Congressional Ballot by between 7-10 points since the first meaningful data came out. Democrats have consistently outperformed Republicans across the map in special elections, which was not the case in Obama’s presidency. Even among these fundraising numbers, in seats Republicans should be trying for, like the aforementioned open seats, along with vulnerable Dem incumbents in MN-07, CA-07, NH-02, and AZ-01, Dems are still crushing GOPers across the board.
If there’s one takeaway from all of this, it’s that more retirements are coming. Some of those numbers set off an alarm bell that certain reps. are thinking of bowing out. I’ve had a list of names to watch and I’ll put them down again, underlining the ones that I think the data suggests will happen:
- Leonard Lance (NJ-07)
- Rodney Frelinghuysen (NJ-11)
- Don Young (AK-AL)
- Dana Rohrabacher (CA-48)
- Ed Royce (CA-39)
- Pat Meehan (PA-07)
- Vern Buchanan (FL-16)
- Fred Upton (MI-06)
- Tim Walberg (MI-07)
- Pete King (NY-02)
In the past, most retirements have happened over Christmas break, so that’s the time to be on the lookout for retirements like these.
Concluding, I will simply say, Dems are on the right track to a majority. When I evaluate this in January, I will use Q4 fundraising data along with this, other special election results, the down-ballot legislative races in Virginia and New Jersey, Trump’s approval, GCB, and other factors. But all that I have at the moment are pointing in one direction. If Democrats continue on the path they’re on, they will wake up on November 6, 2018, the favorites to win a house majority.