David French, one of the National Review’s Conservatives in Exile after the 2016 campaign, is making this diagnosis for The New York Times at a late stage of an old illness.
In its older iterations the Right was so committed to the idea that it was entitled to alternative facts that it broke away and tried to found a nation based on them. 150+ years later, we see that while Conservatives might have given up some instances of the ambition but they still try to apply it today when and where they can. History is repeating itself--as in 1861, one side has to win and one side has to lose; and in that fight and this one, alternative facts aren't just lies; they're stupid, impractical liabilities in a capitalist data driven economy.
The awful choice facing Trump voters right now is the same one that faced the Old South: change or perish, which is to say, admit a fault or remain obstinately proud to the point of denying reality. Overlay the maps of 1861 and that of 2016 and the old CSA matches the Trump states. It's no coincidence that we're refighting the old battles over the legacies and reputations of the leaders. And now as then this war is over before it starts. All the advantages are on the side of fact, empiricism, and science. The places where old CSA statues are being removed are the same ones where the Fortune 500 has an ineradicable presence. French might note that even in "Trump country" where Chattanooga was a CSA rail hub and Murfreesboro was a battleground, Chattanooga now is a fiber hub for the whole country and the Murfreesboro's biggest employers are Nissan, National Healthcare and it's highly respected Middle TN State University. The Trump voters can reenact Gettysburg in their costume uniforms all week long but they can't Make America Stupid Again even in their own home towns. The challenge now isn't defeating them; it's the whole Conservative movement's choice whether to change or perish. Don't hold your breath for that. Trump wiped his feet on French and his colleagues as he walked over the NR and the Conservative intelligentsia last year and he'll use his voters as human shields against them now.