Nevada Republicans are still forging ahead with their sore-loser plans to force recall elections in a desperate attempt to win back the state Senate majority they lost last fall, but Democrats are now mounting an effort to block this attempt to usurp the electoral process. The GOP, however, is well-funded and well-organized, and stopping this hijacking of democracy before it can get underway will not be easy.
But first, a little background: Silver State Republicans were, understandably, less than thrilled about losing what had been a slim 11-10 majority to the Democrats in the 2016 elections. The loss of Senate control coincided with a dramatic power shift toward Democrats in the state Assembly, where Republicans went from a 24-17 majority (plus one Libertarian) to a 15-27 minority overnight last fall. Then one senator, Patricia Farley, added insult to the GOP’s new minority-status injury by leaving the Republican caucus a few days after the election, declaring herself an independent and caucusing with Democrats, giving them an effective 12-9 majority in the Senate. Only GOP Gov. Brian Sandoval stands between Republicans and political irrelevance.
And prospects for a Senate comeback for the Nevada GOP don’t look very rosy going into 2018.
Next fall, the half of the Senate that wasn’t on the ballot last fall is up for election. Unfortunately for the GOP, however, the 10 Senate seats going before voters next year include only three districts currently held by Democrats, all of whom survived the rather difficult 2014 cycle with strong performances. The most viable pickup “opportunity” for Republicans is to replace Farley (the party-switcher) in a seat where Hillary Clinton edged Donald Trump 48-47.
But that only matters if Republicans can somehow scrounge up another seat elsewhere and successfully play defense in every single district they currently hold. And good luck with that: One GOP incumbent on the ballot next fall currently occupies a seat Clinton carried easily (52-43), giving Democrats an opportunity to further expand their majority.
Faced with an almost impossibly tough election cycle, Republicans are resorting to a nefarious tactic to oust three Democratic women senators before they have to go before the full electorate in 2018. Nevada Republicans are trying to trigger do-overs in two in seats they lost last fall and in one competitive district they worry they can’t win in a regular election.
So Republicans reasonably expect to be stuck in the legislative minority through the next election cycle. But forcing new elections just to undo the results of the most recent election just because you don’t like them is a lousy way to do democracy, and it demonstrates why Republicans deserve their minority status.
They can’t sell their candidates or their ideas to voters, so they’re attempting to trigger (historically) lower-turnout special elections in the hope they will have more control over who shows up at the ballot box (although recent special election results suggest Republicans may be screwed in that regard, too).
National Democratic organizations are now mobilizing to block the GOP’s shameful attempt at an end-run around democracy. The DNC is reportedly planning to send a “six-figure chunk of money” to the state party to support a “decline to sign” effort, which seeks to prevent the recalls by discouraging voters from signing recall petitions in order to deny recall organizers the signatures needed (25 percent of a district’s voters in the most recent election). The DLCC, meanwhile, is supporting Our Votes, Our Voice, a group that’s spearheading the “decline to sign” effort, which is also receiving a $50,000 cash infusion from the National Democratic Redistricting Committee.
This is smart spending. A successful effort to stop the recalls is much less expensive than defending these three seats in recall elections, which can reasonably be expected to cost Democrats $3 million to $4 million. Additionally, the three recalls would cost Nevada taxpayers over $150,000.
The Republican recall effort is pathetic, cowardly, and hypocritical enough on its own. But check out this mailer which is both designed to stoke racist fears and distorts Democratic Sen. Nicole Cannizzaro’s record.
We’ll learn the fate of the GOP’s attempt to overturn the last election via recalls by the end of November, but we’ll be keeping a close eye on Nevada Republicans’ dirty tricks in the meantime.