Seeing shades of 2012 and 2016:
A campaign stop for Rep. Luke Messer in his bid for Senate involves traveling from his family’s home in suburban Washington back to Indiana, where he typically stays overnight with his mom.
Although living outside the state is hardly a first for members of Indiana’s congressional delegation, past elections signal Messer’s address could complicate his plans to win the Republican primary and ultimately unseat Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly next year.
Towering figures in Indiana politics, including former Democratic Sen. Evan Bayh and Republican Sen. Richard Lugar, were toppled in recent years after struggling to explain whether they still lived in the state. Others took major steps to head off the issue, including former GOP Sen. Dan Coats, who rented and later purchased a home in Indiana, while selling off one elsewhere.
Then there’s Messer. His family lives in McLean, Virginia, keeps a vacation house in Dandridge, Tennessee, yet sold their home in Indiana two years after his election to Congress in 2012. They now say a two-bedroom house Messer co-owns with his mom in Greensburg is the family’s Indiana residence.
One of his chief primary rivals, fellow Rep. Todd Rokita, has already seized on that as a line of attack.
“Luke Messer doesn’t live in the state — I do,” Rokita told Indianapolis-based WXIN-TV in July. “I’m accountable to voters and taxpayers here. I live among them every week.”
Here’s a little more context:
For his part, Messer says he relocated his family in order to stay close. He was raised by a single mother and wanted to be engaged in his three kids’ day-to-day lives, unlike his own father. Plus, his family’s move to Virginia was well known and never a secret, he said.
“I am proud to serve our state, but being a dad comes first,” Messer said in a statement Wednesday. “My opponents think that’s gonna cost me this election. If it did, I would never regret it.”
Still, changes made to the mortgage on the family’s Virginia home in August 2016 suggest he’s aware it’s a liability.
Messer and wife, Jennifer, switched the home’s designation from a “principal” residence to a “second home,” records show. His campaign says the change was made on their bank’s recommendation while refinancing the house.
But the switch also coincides with a rough patch in Bayh’s bid for his old Senate seat, when he faced widespread ridicule for forgetting his Indianapolis address during a TV interview.
Additionally, Messer’s other home in Tennessee, which overlooks a lake at the foot of the Great Smoky Mountains, also carries a “second home” designation, according to records.
Messer’s campaign says he sleeps at his mom’s house in Greensburg when staying overnight in the state. He’s listed on the deed and pays a portion of the mortgage. The address appears on his driver’s license and is where he is registered to vote.
“It’s Luke’s house,” said campaign manager Chasen Bullock.
But as recent as May, he was not on the water bill and is not listed as the “borrower” on a second mortgage taken out on the home, records show.
Jennifer Messer, an attorney, lists the home as her in-state business address. However, voting records show she’s no longer registered in Indiana and hasn’t cast a ballot since her husband’s 2012 election.
Of course, this opens up attack lines from Messer’s primary opponents:
But one of Messer's Republican primary opponents and fellow Congressman Todd Rokita, in a separate interview with Katz on 93 WIBC, challenges Messer on his the amount of time he spends in Indiana.
"What's best for our family is living right here amongst our constituents, amongst our neighbors in Brownsburg, Indiana," says Congressman Rokita. "You only have to look to [Richard] Lugar [and] Evan Bayh to see how the Indiana electorate treats someone who doesn't really live in this state and has lost touch."
Congressmen Messer and Rokita, along with State Representative Mike Braun, Terry Henderson, Mark Hurt and Andrew Takami are the Republicans who have declared their candidacies for the U.S. Senate seat currently held by Democrat Senator Joe Donnelly. The primary election is May 8, 2018.
While the Republicans continue to attack each other, Donnelly is still anticipating a tough road ahead for his re-election bid:
For Mr. Donnelly, his hold on office already perilous, supporting a Republican tax bill is only the latest possibility he must consider in the delicate dance of running for another term next year in a state Mr. Trump carried by nearly 20 points. He needs Republicans in great numbers to cross over and vote for him, so being on the wrong side of Mr. Trump carries great risk. At the same time, he must not alienate his Democratic base, many of whom distrust any kind of relationship with the president.
After the president called him out, Mr. Donnelly tried to laugh it off in the moment, but did not find it funny. “This is something I have not experienced before,” he said in an interview in this suburb of Indianapolis.
“I actually told his folks, ‘You have one of the most unusual sales tactics I have ever seen. I said, ‘In my experience when you are trying to have someone like your product or buy your product, you’re usually nice to your customer.’”
More important, the ultimatum did little to get the president closer to winning Mr. Donnelly’s support. “I happen to be an Irish-American,” he said, adding, “Threatening me is like waving the red flag in front of the bull.”
And yet no Democrat in the Senate is more at risk than Mr. Donnelly, who won his first Senate term in 2012 when he defeated Richard Mourdock, a Republican whose fortunes plunged after he said in a debate that if a woman was raped and became pregnant, it was “something that God intended to happen.”
After voting in 2008 for Barack Obama, the first Democrat to carry the state since Lyndon Johnson in 1964, Indiana has reverted to its reliably Republican status. That was made clear last year when Evan Bayh, a Democrat who had been a popular two-term governor and senator, lost badly in his bid to regain his Senate seat.
Mr. Donnelly, whose Republican opponent will be determined by a primary next May, is considered a centrist in his party and has carefully nurtured a voting record that avoids easy branding by Republicans as too liberal. He travels the state relentlessly and rarely misses an opportunity to tell voters that he cares more about policy than party. His staff churns out news releases and social media posts that highlight the word “bipartisan.”
At a round-table discussion at a drug treatment center here to discuss the state’s emerging opioid crisis, Mr. Donnelly was patient and soft-spoken as he took in the views from counselors, family advocates and law enforcement officers. “I work for you guys,” he said, while also noting the millions of dollars he had helped secure for the state for the effort.
Mr. Trump may not be the only one with Mr. Donnelly in his sights. Americans for Prosperity, an independent group backed by the Koch brothers, is spending $1.9 million on ads this month to try to pressure him on his vote. “Don’t let Senator Donnelly stand in the way of a simple, fair tax system,” the narrator concludes.
Another group has been tracking Mr. Donnelly’s every public movement for five months, in an effort to record any political missteps, even his walk to his car after his appearance at the drug treatment facility.
But there’s one core group of voters that could determine Donnelly’s fate: Veterans. Donnelly kicked off his re-election campaign back in January at a VFW event in Indianapolis:
Perhaps his strongest voter base, veterans at the Indianapolis event felt he was well-known among vets.
"I don't think anybody represents us any better," said State Commander Rick Faulk, while introducing Donnelly. VFW leaders told IndyStar they're willing to host pro-veteran politicians from either party who inquire.
Donnelly has focused on agriculture, national defense and veterans’ issues, which one expert previously said could help him with blue-collar voters who flocked to Donald Trump last year. Donnelly reminded the crowd he helped instate a memorial day for Vietnam veterans — March 29. Donnelly's father was in the Navy, and his uncle was in the Army.
"There's no politics in this stuff," Donnelly said. "And there should never be ... I'm the hired help. You are the boss."
As far as new legislation for veterans, Donnelly said he was working on a suicide prevention bill that would create a three-digit number helpline that veterans can call to immediately reach a person.
We will need to keep our eye on this race. Click here to donate and get involved with Donnelly’s campaign.