Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski, one of the trio of Republicans who brought down Trumpcare in the Senate, appears to be falling for Mitch McConnell's trick this time: the incentive he's offering to get those Trumpcare resisters on board with the tax cuts for the rich plan, a bill that includes yet another Obamacare repeal effort. The sweetener he's offering is the promise of a vote on Alexander-Murray, the plan developed by that bipartisan duo to restore Obamacare's cost-sharing reduction payments to health insurers. Popular vote loser Donald Trump has decided to stop paying them and the only way they can be resumed at this point is through congressional action. Murkowski says her vote on the tax bill is contingent on Alexander-Murray passing.
“I think that there is a path and I think the path is a reasonable path,” the Alaska Republican said of her support for the measure. “If the Congress is going to move forward with repeal of the individual mandate, we absolutely must have the Alexander-Murray piece that is passed into law.”
There are a number of problems with that, but the main one is that if the individual mandate repeal happens, Alexander-Murray won't be able to save the markets.
The net effect of repealing the individual mandate and passing the Alexander-Murray bill would be a small reduction in silver plan premiums in 2019, higher premiums for all other plans beginning in 2019, and higher premiums for all plans beginning in 2020. [...]
The combined effect of repealing the individual mandate and passing the Alexander-Murray bill would be to substantially increase insurer uncertainty and confusion and the risk that insurers exit the individual market.
Those premium increases would be felt particularly hard in Murkowski's home state of Alaska. Like an annual increase of $2,900 hard, in a state that already has some of the highest premium costs.
Alexander-Murray wouldn't offset the loss of 24,000 people from the markets in Alaska. Oh, and in addition, the bill would cut $32 million in Medicare payments in the state, just in 2018.
There's also the problem that Democrats would have to go along with passing Alexander-Murray, because it can't be considered under the budget reconciliation structure Republicans set up to jam their tax bill through. Under it, they can pass the tax bill with just 51 votes, but that won't extend to Alexander-Murray. Democrats have already shut that down.
Murkowski should end this farce now by acknowledging the reality that her conditions for voting for the tax bill cannot possibly be met. Because right now she's just transparently lying to her constituents.
Jam your senators' phone lines at (202) 224-3121. Tell them to vote "no" on the Republican tax bill.