The Tesla all-electric Semi truck and the all-new roadster stole the limelight this week, but another small unveiling took place this week, which along with other ongoing developments, has huge implications for the future of humankind.
A robot performed a backflip and stuck the landing — with a touch of flair. This is an improved version of the robot named Atlas, developed by Boston Dynamics (now part of SoftBank), which earlier had demonstrated the ability to pick up and shelve boxes and to take a brisk walk in snow-covered woods.
So, what is this commotion all about? Perhaps, Atlas may win some medals in the robot Olympics and entertain us. Is this anything to lose sleep over?
PCMag's UK-based editor and news reporter, Matthew Humphries writes at www.pcmag.com/…
What I noticed from watching the video above is how human-like the body movement is. ... If Boston Dynamics can slim down the frame of Atlas and fit it in typical human clothing, it won't be too much longer before it's hard to tell the difference between a human and robot body.
Jamie Condliffe at MIT Technology Review's "The Download" writes at www.technologyreview.com/…
Anyone who's tried to do a backflip will know that it's not easy, especially the landing. It requires dexterity, poise, and balance — all things that have typically been lacking in humanoid robots. But Boston Dynamics has shown that, while it might not be easy and certainly seemed a distant hope two years ago, it's now perfectly possible for a robot to display such skills. That has profound implications for what robots might be able to do in the future.
Paul Miller at www.theverge.com/… writes -
A humanoid strong enough to jump like that is capable of any "typical" human locomotion. Stairs, curbs, uneven ground, accidental jostling, sitting down, standing up, getting in and out of cars, subway lurches... all moves which are frequently performed by humans who can't land a backflip, and who get mad if you shove them with a hockey stick.
A backflip is a marvel of mechanical engineering and software control. It's a statement of power and poise. It's bonkers.
But I think we're in a new robotic age now. There was a time before Atlas could do backflips, back when robots were for factories, bomb disposal, vacuuming, and the occasional gimmick, and none of the useful ones were humanoids. Now we're living in an era where humanoid robots are apparently as agile as we are. So what will they be used for?
The new Atlas is just about 5 feet tall, and weighs 165 pounds, lighter than the previous version. It uses hydraulics which makes it very powerful and agile. This version uses technology that integrates tubing in the fabric itself, making it lighter and more compact.
From www.bostondynamics.com/… -
The Atlas hardware takes advantage of 3D printing to save weight and space, resulting in a remarkable compact robot with high strength-to-weight ratio and a dramatically large workspace. Stereo vision, range sensing and other sensors give Atlas the ability to manipulate objects in its environment and to travel on rough terrain. Atlas keeps its balance when jostled or pushed and can get up if it tips over.
Here is Atlas showing his skills and dexterity last year -
If that does not cause some anxiety about the future, how about this?
Or this?
Or this — AlphaGo Zero, a quantum leap in Deep Learning AI, that beat the previous version of AlphaGo 100 to 0 and learned to perform this task from scratch on its own, without utilizing previous human knowledge.
The future is being written, in software, by thousands of experts and students -
And that brings us full circle back to Tesla. Not only are robots widely used in auto factories, but AI software will replace many of the drivers, from self-driving cars and delivery trucks to truck convoys, as envisioned by Tesla.
So, what do the rapid advances in automation, robotics, machine learning and AI mean for the workforce and for humanity in general?
When Will AI Exceed Human Performance?
According to a survey performed by researchers at Oxford and Yale Universities, described in arxiv.org/.… , researchers predict that AI will outperform humans in many activities in the next 10 to 35 years, as shown in the table below. Researchers believe there is a 50% chance of AI outperforming humans in all tasks in 45 years and of automating all human jobs in 120 years, with Asian respondents expecting these dates much earlier than North Americans.
WORK ACTIVITY |
YEAR AI WILL OUTPERFORM HUMANS |
Translating languages |
2026 |
Driving a truck |
2027 |
Working in retail |
2031 |
Writing a bestselling book |
2049 |
Working as a surgeon |
2053 |
Performing AI Research |
2102
|
Surgical assistants today, surgeons tomorrow?
Some Other Opinions on AI and Jobs
The Future of Work community outlines five industries that are going to be most heavily impacted by automation:
Industry |
ExampleS |
Medicine/healthcare |
Anesthesiology, radiology, surgery, diagnosis |
Manufacturing |
Electronics, cars, and even some homes |
Transportation |
Morgan Stanley predicts that driverless cars will save the U.S. $1.3 trillion a year by 2035 to 2050, for a global annual saving of $5.6 trillion |
Customer service |
Natural language based customer support |
Finance |
Market analysis, financial advice |
Kai-Fu Lee, former president of Google China, now chairman and CEO of Sinovation Ventures, believes that
about half of all jobs will disappear over the next decade and be replaced with AI and the next generation of robots in the fastest period of disruption in history. The white collar jobs are easier to take because they're pure a quantitative analytical process.
Tom Mitchell, professor of machine learning at Carnegie Mellon University School of Computer Science thinks that advances in computer vision, speech, analytics, and mobile robotics promise to affect any jobs related to these skills. www.zdnet.com/…
Stephen Hawking and Elon Musk have warned about the development of AI. Along with replacing humans in process-driven jobs, they opine that it has the power to destroy the world.
Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg has opined that technology does not increase or reduce jobs. The emergence of new technology only increases the pay as employees are trained with skills required to work on those technologies. hitechnewsdaily.com/…
According to Robert F. Smith, the co-founder and CEO of private equity powerhouse Vista Equity Partners, artificial intelligence will not wipe out jobs completely. www.geekwire.com/…
There will be what I call the augmentation of the human experience and work, not the complete displacement. And I think there is going to be that transformation.
Smith admits that driverless trucks are in the future, with the potential to impact 800,000 truck drivers across the country.
However, Smith said it will likely be 10-15 years before we see fully-automated driving, and by that time many truck drivers will have transitioned to new roles within the industry. For example, he said that truck drivers will likely transition to “field technicians” — perhaps staying in the truck cab for longer periods of time to make sure they are monitoring the systems and making sure they are operating properly.
Further Reading
- When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? — www.dailykos.com/…
- AI and the Future of Jobs — www.dailykos.com/…
- Here Is a Strategy For Making Yourself Irreplaceable Before Artificial Intelligence Learns to do Your Job — www.entrepreneur.com/…
- Workforce of the future, The competing forces shaping 2030 — www.pwc.com/…
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6 ways to make sure AI creates jobs for all and not the few — www.weforum.org/…
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The Future of Jobs Employment, Skills and Workforce Strategy for the Fourth Industrial Revolution — www3.weforum.org/...