We should be alert to the real possibility that Trump will nuke Iran. I think that it’s much more likely than it appears at first glance.
1. To End the Nuclear Agreement
Trump hates Obama’s Iran nuclear agreement and is determined to get rid of it, but he can’t do so because it is popular with other heads of state, it is working, and the Iranians haven’t violated it. Still, it was a promise that Trump made to his base and, more crucially, to himself. Will he be able to resist the temptation to find some pretext to declare the agreement violated? It wouldn’t be too hard to announce that highly sensitive intelligence has revealed that the Iranians are not holding up their end. At that point, he must destroy their bases.
2. To Avoid a Conventional War
But a conventional war with Iran would have a strong probability of ending up in a quagmire like the Iraq war did. It would be very hard to know if we’d found all their nuclear facilities without a ground invasion, which would cost thousands of US lives and eventually become unpopular at home. Trump might instead opt to do what Truman did in Japan. It would make sense to him because he would not be concerned about the number of innocent deaths. He could possibly knock out the entire Supreme Council in a few seconds.
3. Because White Evangelicals Would Love It
If there’s one thing that right-wing evangelicals love it’s conflict in the Middle East. That enables them to get out their Bibles and start prophesying. And it always means that the return of Christ is just around the corner. A nuclear bomb would send them into a fit of hallelujahs as soon as you can say “Acts 2:17”. Trump would literally become a modern-day prophet in the eyes of many of them. The conspiracy theorists, many of whom are also evangelicals, would be overjoyed too. It would be a sign that Trump is taking decisive action against the Great Conspiracy and the New World Order. Give those reptilians something to suck on!
4. Because Benjamin Netanyahu Would Love It
You’d think that Benjamin Netanyahu would have been grateful for the two hundred million dollars that Obama provided for Israel’s Iron Dome defense. You’d think that Benjamin Netanyahu would welcome an agreement that prevents Iran from obtaining nukes. But the fact is that Netanyahu wants something more. He wants to get rid of Hezbollah too, and Hezbollah is funded by Iran. He needs the US to attack Iran for him so that Hezbollah will be cut off. You can’t blame him for trying, especially with Trump around. Blow the place up and then make a new agreement.
5. Because Prince Mohammad Bin Salman Would Love It
When was the last time the Shiites attacked America? When was the last time a Shiite terrorist went on a shooting rampage in the USA, or Western Europe, or murdered somebody with an explosive? You have to go back a long, long way. ISIS, Al Qaeda and the Taliban are all Sunni, as is almost every other terrorist Islamic cult that has killed Americans in the past twenty years. And yet Trump is taking the side of the Sunnis against the Shiites in a tragic and pointless struggle that the US has no business meddling with. Oh, but the Saudis have lots of money and super-duper hotels and Prince Mohammad Bin Salman, along with all his little princelets, will jump for joy if we join his battle against the Shiite infidels! Who better to interpret the Quran for the whole of humanity than Donald J. Trump?
6. To Threaten North Korea
I think this is the most important reason that Trump just might do it. Trump would love to drop a nuke on Rocket Man’s head but he has been made aware of the likely consequences. By dropping a big one on Iran he can do the next best thing and do it without putting our South Korean and Japanese allies at risk. If Iran retaliates with ground forces, where can they go that the US can’t bomb them to bits? Nuking Iran could also be a kind of trial run. See how it goes. At the very least, it would send a massive warning to Kim Jong Un. It would be confirmation of Trump’s madness, although our Great Orange Leader would prefer to think of it as a demonstration of his resolve. From Trump’s perspective, it wouldn’t hurt to send such a message to Iran’s allies Putin and Assad, and to its neighbor Mr. Erdogan too.
7. To Make America Great Again
Donald Trump’s head is stuck in the 1940s where nobody is gay, everyone is white, all the women who are not hookers are eating bon bons, all the blacks are working in the kitchen, all the Mexicans are hunting for badges out in the desert, and everyone whom you don’t like the look of is a damned communist. It’s the world of Frank Capra and Norman Rockwell (no offense to the memory of those gentlemen intended). And only America has the Bomb. Trump in his own mind is Truman, Patton, FDR, MacArthur and McCarthy all rolled into one and rounded off with a touch of Frank. He’s the ultimate hero, plus a bit of Penguin and the Joker, the Male that’s so Alpha that they needed to create a whole new letter that comes ahead of the A, just for him. He’s going to make America great and there’s no better way to make America great than by dropping something bigger than Harry Truman ever dreamed of. He promised to do it and perhaps he will.
8. To Make Trump Great Again
The 2018 Elections are just around the corner. Then, in 2020, Trump is either going to run for reelection or else he is going to want to go out with a bang. Many men seek fame but most of them like it to be positive fame. Trump, however, doesn’t distinguish between fame and infamy. To him they are two sides of one coin and it has the same value whichever way up you hold it. Whether he’s famous for pushing through deals or grabbing for pussy, it’s all the same to the malignant narcissist in chief. He has lost some steam since the election. Some of his supporters are not as fired up as they once were. He has been unable to dominate Republicans in the Congress. Obamacare is still the law of the land. He will want to do something dramatic. That’ll show ‘em! Dropping a nuclear bomb automatically makes you a big person, one who can never be ignored by history. It makes you one of the Great Presidents: not great in character, but great in fame, which is the kind of greatness Trump cares for. So he’d better drop one. And where is he to drop it, if not on Iran? Oh, and what a stroke of genius when it comes to branding!