2016 showed the largest increase in the concentration atmospheric carbon dioxide in (at least) the last 2000 years. I first read about it in this diary by Craig Hunter.
My monthly email from NASA contained an article which discussed the data gathered by NASA’s Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) which is able to measure the carbon dioxide output of particular planetary regions. The data seems to indicate that three planetary regions released a lot more carbon dioxide in 2016 than they have in the past and that these increases, by natural effects, largely explain last year’s anomalously large increase in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide.
It seems that last’s year’s El Nino effect was the root cause of the observed burp of carbon dioxide – providing specific weather effects in three regions, each of which emitted approximately .8 gigatons more carbon dioxide than normal, Those regions are Northeast South America, Indonesia and East-central Africa. All three regions are the same general biome – tropical forest.
The African region experienced approximately normal rainfall but hotter than average temperatures. This accelerated decomposition which was primarily responsible for that region’s share of the 2016 emissions. The South American region experienced low rain and high temperatures which stressed the region’s vegetation – leading to lower rates of photosynthesis but normal rates of emissions. The Indonesian region was also warm and dry but the lion’s share of the increased emissions in this region had another cause – forest and peat fires.
I have already linked to the article but I will do so again here. It is short, readable, and has a couple maps. I strongly recommend it.
The most important things to remember regarding this data is that the spike in carbon dioxide emissions observed last year
- Came from natural causes.
- Came in a year that human-generated emissions were essentially flat.
- Came as a result of natural conditions (hot or hot and dry) which are expected to become more common as our planet’s climate (slowly) catches up to a higher concentration of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere.
So, in between legitimate worries about the people of Puerto Rico, the hopeful anticipation of the Virginia elections results and the joy that is the Ms. Brazile pie fight, it is probably time to start a new conversation. One about what we as a society are going to pay for – abatement of or retreat from the effects of climate change. Now that our own planet has entered the emissions game, it is hard to see how our species will avoid continuing, locally catastrophic, weather and climate events. And while I have no doubt that our eventual response will include a mixture of abatement and retreat, it is time to start thinking about which response where will provide the greatest help to the most people in the most cost effective manner. Part of that will be forcing all politicians of all political stripes to answer questions about their plans for our species’ future on a less hospitable planet.
Not a happy thing to have to think about. Not happy, but now, necessary.