Michigan Legislative Project Issue #3
Hello all, doesn’t the Fall weather particularly suck lately? In honor of my work schedule going back to normal and finding a number of candidates for seats coming up, I’m doing a huge rundown on every new races I’ve found candidates on while also listing *every* prior race from the first two issues for a comprehensive look at every race to date (might as well make this as bad for me as possible, because why the hell not). As I just found a breakdown online of every declared and potential candidate discussed by a Michigan based “public consulting firm”. This is at http://www.paa-online.com/intel/2017/9/28/michigan-state-senate-race-2018 and has some useful stuff. There is no related site for the State House of Representatives. Due to sheer length, I’m breaking out the State Senate into its own separate article and doing a 4th Issue only on the State House as a facebook search led me to a number of good candidates for that body as well. I will also be correcting a couple errors as I’m one person and tiredness, bad web searches, and the like can lead to errors.
State Senate
State Senate District 1 (A large portion of Detroit, what’s south of 94, and Downriver such as Wyandotte, Woodhaven, Grosse Ille and I believe Trenton and Ecorse also)
Incumbent: Coleman Young II (D, not eligible for reelection)
Dems Running: State Representative (District 6) Stephanie Chang website: http://www.stephaniechang.com/ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/stephaniechangforrep/
University Employee & National Guard Officer Nick Rivera. Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/NickRiveraForDistrict1/ (no candidate page I can find).
Republicans Running: ?
Still a fairly static race with Stephanie Change running some events but I do have a slight correction, Nick Rivera is actually apparently a Democratic party member, despite not really mentioning it in his Facebook Campaign page so in the interests of fairness, I’m including his Facebook. Chang is still the favorite and should win the primary.
Michigan State Senate District 3 (Detroit, Dearborn, portion of Dearborn Heights).
Incumbent: Morris Hood III (term-limited)
Announced candidates: None yet.
Potential Candidates: State Representative Sylvia Santana, former State Representative Harvey Santana, former State Representative David Nathan, Wayne County Commission Chairman/former State Representative Gary Woronchak
This is another safe Democratic seat that it will be interesting to see the race shake out as there are a lot of potential candidates. To start with, the Santana’s are husband and wife. While all are Democrats Harvey Santana was expelled from the Democratic caucus for voting with Republicans and taking a vice-chairman slot on the Appropriations Committee (appointed by the Republican Statehouse speaker, contrary to the wishes of the Dem caucus). Santanna also had the fucking stones to blame the Democratic party for his actions (http://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2015/02/03/santana-kicked-democratic-caucus/22808119/ ). Harvey Santana and David Nathan also had an incident between the two (that appears to have been instigated by Santana) during a House session which makes a potential primary between the two…interesting. Gary Woronchak is interesting in that he’s the only potential candidate in the race who is not from Detroit (he’s from Dearborn instead) which could help his chances if multiple Detroit candidates where to run.
State Senate District #6 (City of Taylor, City of Romulus, Van Buren Township, Sumpter Township, Huron Township, Brownstown Township, Westland, City of Wayne)
Incumbent: Hoon-Young Hopgood (D, not eligible to run for re-election)
Dems Running: State Representative Robert Kosowski (term-limited, his district covers Wayne & Westland), does not appear to have a campaign website
Potential Dems: State Representative Erika Geiss
No real news but I’m hearing from more and more people who’d know that Geiss is pretty much all but in which would kick off a pretty good primary between good state representatives. No problems with either of these people, though I’m more familiar with Geiss.
State Senate District #7 (Canton, Plymouth Township, City of Livonia, City of Plymouth, City & Township of Northville, City of Livonia, portion of city of Wayne)
Incumbent: Patrick Colbeck (R, not eligible to run again, running for Governor)
Democrats Running: Psychiatrist/CEO of APEX Behavioral Health-Dearborn Ghulam Qadir (http://drqadir.com/), Teacher/Small Business Owner/Casting Agent Dayna Polehanki (http://daynaforsenate.com), Facebook: (https://www.facebook.com/DaynaForSenate/) and IMDB page (http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0688954/).
Potential Republicans Running: State Representative Laura Cox (R-Livonia), former State Representative John Stewart (R-Plymouth), State Representative Jeff Noble (R-Plymouth), former Plymouth Township Supervisor/Former Wayne County Commissioner Shannon Price
The Democratic side hasn’t changed as Dr. Qadir and Dayna Polehanki are both running active enough campaigns, both being backed by different area politicians. It is on the Republican side that things are starting to move as I’m hearing that Laura Cox is deciding against the Congressional race in District 11 and is expected to run for State Senate, while former State Representative John Stewart is also a name I’m starting to hear more of (while I’m listing them, neither Noble nor Price is considered likely to run unless Cox decides not to for whatever reason). Both Democrats are good candidates and both have some good people behind them (Polehanki has State Representative Kristy Pagan, Qadir has former Canton Township Trustee Dr. Syed Taj and former State Board of Education President John Austin).
State Senate District 10 (Sterling Heights, Clinton Township, and Macomb Township)
Incumbent: Tory Rocca (R-Sterling Heights, term limited)
Democratic Candidate running Henry Yanez (Facebook Page: https://www.facebook.com/FriendsOfHenryYanez/ , Campaign Webiste: none yet, he just declared 9/25/2017)
Republicans Running: former defense contractor Michael Shallal, Dr. Steve Naumovski, and automotive engineer Joseph Bogdan
Potential Republicans Running: Macomb County Commissioner/former State Representative Leon Drolet.
This district will be a nice test as to Trump’s appeal as we went from winning Sterling Heights and Clinton Township (and coming close in Macomb) to getting shelled in Sterling Heights and narrowly losing Clinton Township (Sterling Heights had Republicans picking up a lot of votes but most of the change in Clinton Township was a shit ton of third party voting). Yanez has won three elections in Sterling Heights so he should have some appeal. And god help me if Drolet gets in as he is an extreme right-winger by even the Michigan GOP’s standards.
State Senate District 12 (portions of Southfield township, Bloomfield township, the city of Pontiac, and the city of Auburn Hills, the entirety of Independence, Orion, Oxford, Addison and Oakland Townships, the Village of Clarkston, and apparently Lake Orion even though I don’t see it on the district map)
Incumbent: Jim Marleau (R-Lake Orion, term limited)
Republicans running: State Representative Jim Tedder (R-Clarkston) has filed
Democrats running: IT Business Owner Rosemary Bayer (D-Beverly Hills, Campaign Site: http://rosemarybayerforsenate.com/ , Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/RosemaryforMISenate/ ), Michigan Veterans Affairs Agency Regional Coordinator/US Army Veteran Kate Logan (no campaign websites that I can currently find), Jeremy Ross Haines (same).
TO start with this is a pretty blatantly gerrymandered district that split ups portions of about 4 different municipalities and fuses them to a block of mostly republican townships. That having been said Bayer is a good candidate with a sound IT background (former team leader for Sun Microsystems, she’s founded her own IT company ardentCause L3C which is a small IT company serving the non-profit sector. I simply can’t find anything on two of the three candidates and, if it weren’t for consultant Public Affairs Associates (which appears legit) report I wouldn’t have found out about Haines at all (Logan is a past “40 under 40” for Michigan member and is a legit good candidate, despite her losing her State House race in 2016). I’m seeing a decent amount of activity by Bayer though.
State Senate District 13 (Oakland County: Birmingham, Bloomfield Hills, Royal Oak, Rochester, Rochester Hills, Troy, Berkley, and Clawson)
Incumbent: Marty Knollenberg (R-Troy, Running for reelection) a former State Representative & Oakland County Commissioner
Democrats Running: Writer & Creative Director Mallory McMorrow (https://www.mcmorrowformichigan.com/) Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/mcmorrowformichigan/
Repeated rundown on the character of the district: This *should* be a very winnable seat, especially since Hillary won in Troy, Birmingham, Bloomfield Hills, and Royal Oak in 2016). However, the double shot of Rochester & Rochester Hills is still Republican and they supply a lot of votes, plus Knollenberg is strong in Troy.
Having said that? McMorrow has been running a very busy campaign *and* she found the time to moderate a panel at the Women’s Conference (https://www.facebook.com/mcmorrowformichigan/videos/527940534221173/ ). Also, her events aren’t just the standard political draws at someone’s house, she’s had a tour of Detroit Bike’s facilities and she’s having an event at a local craft brewery. They’re thinking outside the box on this campaign and I really kinda like it (wish I’d have time to get to one of the events but *sigh* no dice). She’s still got a good chance. Also, huge self-back patting event: Her campaign Facebook linked to the first Michigan Legislative Project and mentioned it (can’t seem to link to an individual Facebook post but its halfway into October).
State Senate District 15 (Novi, Milford, Wixom, South Lyon, West Bloomfield Township, the Oakland County portion of Northville, Walled Lake, and Commerce Townships)
Incumbent Mike Krowall (R-Term Limited)
Democrat Running: Nurse Julia Pulver (Campaign Website: https://www.juliapulver.com/ , Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/VotePulver/ )
Republicans Running: former State Representative Hugh Crawford (Novi) and State Representative Jim Runestad (White Lake)
An Oakland County district, and one of the ones I found out about through the PAA report, but Pulver is running an active campaign and Hillary did pick-up Novi in 2016 so maybe parts are heading our way. There are two tough candidates running (though that might be it as fellow Republican State Representative Klint Kesto is running for the 11th Congressional District) though so definitely an uphill climb.
State Senate District 17 (Monroe County and Lenawee County)
Incumbent: Dale Zorn (R-Ida, likely running for re-election)
Candidates: None currently
Potential candidates: former State Representative Bill Lavoy, former State Representative (2005-2010)/former AT&T Michigan Governmental Affairs Executive Director (2011-2013) Kathy Angerer, former State Representative & 2014 nominee Douglas Spade (who’s Facebook page Douglas Spade for State Senate is still being updated)
A brief meia culpa: The district description I used was inaccurate based on a bad websearch. In reality, the district was essentially the *old* 80s state senate district without any of the portions of counties (the district has always been Monroe but it has variously included portions of Washtenaw, Jackson, and Wayne counties). In addition, I did see one report that listed former State Representative Angerer as a potential candidate, though I’d think that if she was going to run she’d have run in 2010 when her term was up. I also have no idea if 2014 nominee (and former State Representative) Douglas Spade is considering running again but it looks like his candidate page is still getting updated with things for him so definitely a possibility.
State Senate District 22 (Essentially all of Livingston County and Western Washtenaw County, primarily everything west of Ann Arbor and the city of Saline)
Incumbent: Joe Hune (R-Hamburg, term-limited)
Democratic candidate running: Adam Dreher, Assistant Prosecuting Attorney Iona County/past Army member (Campaign Site: https://adamdreher.com/ , Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Adam4Senate/ )
Republican Running: State Representative Lana Theis (R-Brighton)
And here we get into districts that could go to us in a wave. Washtenaw County as a whole is one of the better organized districts that I’ve heard discussed, so Western Washtenaw should be good for us, the problem is that Livingston County is one of the more Republican larger counties out there (and is home to Howell, which used to be the base for the Michigan KKK). Dreher is probably one of the only candidates who might be competitive here as a Prosecutor who has also served in the army.
State Senate District 29 (city of Grand Rapids, City of East Grand Rapids, Ada Township, Cascade Township, Caledonia Township, Bowne Township, City/Township of Lowell)
Incumbent: Dave Hildenbrand (R-Lowell, not eligible to run for re-election)
Dems Running: State Representative for the 76th district Winnie Brinks (http://www.mlive.com/news/grand-rapids/index.ssf/2017/09/state_rep_winnie_brinks_runnin.html Campaign Site: https://www.winniebrinks.com/ )
Possible Republicans Running: State Representative Thomas Albert (District 86) and State Representative Chris Afendoulis (District 73), a number of township and county officials in district. A websearch did not have anyone as declaring yet.
This one has nothing new to it, Brinks has declared and is a good candidate, as of last I saw no republicans have yet declared for it, though Afendoulis has gotten enough push to be the listed “potential candidate” by the PAA report linked.
State Senate District 31 (It’s too awkard to describe but this: http://www.statesenatormikegreen.com/district/ , notable areas include Bay County and Lapeer County).
Incumbent: Mike Green (R – Term Limited)
Republican Running: former State Representative Kevin Daley (R-Lum)
Democratic candidate running: Bay County Clerk (2004-Present) Cynthia Luczak (http://www.mlive.com/news/bay-city/index.ssf/2017/10/bay_county_clerk_luczak_files.html , no campaign website that I can find)
This is a mess of a district, but Bay can and has voted for Democratic candidates before and Luczak has won 4 elections there so she has a good base to start with. Daley served as State Representative about a decade prior but lost a primary in the 00s. This is one of the races (along with the 10th, the 22nd, the 29th, and the 38th ) which could determine whether we can pick-up the State Senate in time for redistricting so definitely one worth working on and Luczak has the basis for being a good candidate.
State Senate District 38 (The following counties: Gogebic, Iron, Dickinson, Ontonagon, Houghton, Baraga, Marquette, Alger, Delta, Schoolcraft, and Menominee essentially 90% of the UP)
Incumbent: Tom Casperson (R-Term Limited)
Republicans Running: former State Representative Ed McBroom (R-Norway) and local businessman Mike Carey (from Iron Mountain)
Democratic Candidate Running: State Representative Scott Dianda (D-Calmut) who represented the more Republican Western Upper Pennisula (the stuff West of Marquette county) which should give him a leg up. Campaign website: http://www.scottdianda.com/ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/scottdianda/
This isn’t the highest profile race but this Upper Pennisula Race is a very winnable race as it used to be State Senate Minority Leader Mike Prusi’s seat up until 2010. Dianda represented the more Conservative section (as Marquette is the most Dem portion of the UP) and should have the edge on McBroom.