Please pardon the rosy tone of this diary, but I’m still running on the warm-and-fuzzy glow of Tuesday night, But today I want to provide an update on a diary I wrote long ago that has new information to go on, and great relevance for 2018.
Way back in April, when congresswoman Ileana Ros Lehtinen (R-FL) announced her retirement from congress at the end of her current term, I wrote a diary opining that this was something to keep a close eye on in the future. Ros Lehtinen represents a swing district in Florida, and apparently saw the handwriting on the wall. My feeling was that if Trump continued to stumble as badly as he had up until then (and BOY! has he!), GOP incumbents in districts where Clinton won even though the incumbent was reelected may decide it’s time to spend more time pestering the wife and kids than risk going out a loser. After all, that’s what lobbying is for, right?
Suffice it to say that I wasn’t wrong, I don’t waste keystrokes highlighting when I screw up. A recent article on CBSNews.com shows that they’re keeping a running track. And here’s what they came up with;
So far, 10 Republicans in the House and Senate have announced that they plan to retire from Congress at the beginning of 2019, three have either resigned or plan to resign soon and 10 have announced that they're running for another office.
The article goes on to compare that fact with the Democratic roster, which shows only two Democrats retiring, and eight vacating to run for another office. That’s a net difference of 13 seats now up for grabs, and we’re only in early November. And these aren’t just newcomers in the GOP who are copping a hike;
Some of the retiring GOP lawmakers have served in Congress for several decades: Rep. Sam Johnson, R-Texas, who first joined the House in 1991; Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, R-Florida, who first arrived at Capitol Hill in 1989; and Rep. John Duncan, R-Tennessee, who was first sworn in in 1988. Others are somewhat newer to politics and have decided to return to the private sector, citing their desire to spend more time with family. A few aspire to statewide office and are running for Senate or governor, taking President Trump's rise as their inspiration.
This is critical for several reasons, as I’ve explained previously. For one, bouncing an incumbent is like the Cubs winning a World Series, it happens once every 100 years or so. Losing an incumbent levels the playing field for a challenger from the other parry since the incumbents name recognition and campaign structure are gone, as is his or her donor base. Second, and more importantly for Ryan and McConnell, it is going to cost them much more money, not only for the campaign advertising, but also for physical help for the fledgling candidate.
This is especially a nightmare scenario for Ditch, I mean Mitch McConnell. back in January, McConnell was gloating about the near certainty of bouncing Manchin in West Virginia, Donnelly in Indiana, and Heitkamp in North Dakota. Now, 10 months later, not only are those three vulnerable Democrats feeling like they at least have a fighting chance, but McConnell is having trouble finding candidates to oppose them. And if that wasn’t enough, Bannon is licking his nuts talking about fielding his own slate of Trumpista’s to run, not only in those states, but also in states to challenge McConnell loyalists. Now, McConnell has to find new candidates, sweat them through primaries against what will probably be well funded Mercer backed primary challengers, and then support them through the general. Dean Heller is in dire danger in Nevada, and with Corker and Flake retiring, he must now find new candidates to run, again fighting off Bannon backed challengers. Not only is McConnell’s dream of enlarging his majority slipping through his fingers, he’s facing the very real risk of taking a seat back on the floor in January of 2019.
There is one factor that nobody seems to be talking about. Emotion. Right now, the New York Giants are having a miserable year. One of the fun thing about watching a Giants game on tv is listening to the “loyal” fans raining boos down on the heads of the Giants players when they head back to the locker room at halftime having laid another egg in the first half. Exit polling in Virginia showed that while 34% of voters showed up to oppose Trump, only 14% voted to support him. Even if the majority of Trumpaholics rouse themselves to come out and vote in 2018, if more moderate “sane” Republicans are depressed by the total lack of accomplishments by theGOP controlled government, especially if the tax bill fails, or fails to live up to the advanced billing, which it almost certainly will, they may stay home in protest. This could actually be heightened if a number of Bannon acolytes storm through in low turnout GOP primaries. Alabama next month may provide some early indication of just how far non Trump Republicans will sink just to support their party.
The Tuesday results in Virginia, and the Democratic gains in state and local races nationwide could be the first ill winds of an incoming hurricane for the GOP in 2018. And by the looks of it, each GOP incumbent that retires between now and November of 2018 potentially adds another knot of headwind for them to sail into. Don’t touch that dial.