Sen. Marco Rubio said Friday that he was withholding his critical vote on the tax bill unless his fellow Republicans agreed to increase the amount of the child tax credit in the bill that’s available to not-rich people. In response, Republicans said they’d increase the amount, but not fully adopt Rubio’s proposal. Nothing in Rubio’s record suggest he would really refuse to vote for a Republican bill if he was given a fig leaf worth of improvement, so the big question is whether the “compromise” is going to help low- and middle-income families.
Under the original Republican plan, high-earning families would have become eligible for thousands of dollars in new CTC, while 10 million children in low-earning families would have gotten a whopping $75. The Rubio-Lee amendment would have raised that to $494. After Rubio's threats:
Republican negotiators have proposed to expand the Child Tax Credit from $1,000 per child to $2,000 per child, but in earlier versions of the plan, that expansion would not be available to every family. Many lower-income families would only qualify for a $1,100 child tax credit.
Noem said Friday the plan’s credit for such families had been increased to $1400.
A Rubio spokesperson said he was waiting to see the bill text. As are we all, and as we wait, the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities’ Chuck Marr raised a key question—this report of the increase to $1,400 doesn’t address the only difference between the original bill and what Rubio was asking for. Rubio-Lee started the child tax credit at the first dollar of earnings, while the existing Republican plan didn’t count the first $2,500 of income. So unless that is also changing, the compromise Republicans are trumpeting to get Rubio back on board isn’t going to come close to the plan he had been pushing, and won’t do much for the lowest-income families that need it the most.
Will Rubio hold out for more? Betting against Rubio’s spine the safest bet, especially if the traditional media is willing to paint this as a win for him.