Michigan Legislative Project #4: State Representative Rundown: 10 Seats Discussed (plus 3 Brief State Senate updates).
Hey all, I’ve had various political events in the last month, okayish December/late November weather lately, and the GOP just passed the worst tax bill in history. As the last issue dealt solely with the State Senate, this issue will deal 95% with the State House Elections (there are three small news updates for the State Senate seats). We got a number of State House Seats to discuss and I’ll be doing rundowns for *every* seat that I’d previously discussed. So without further adieu, Away. We. Go:
State House District 17 (Northern Monroe County, Sumpter Township in Wayne County, Rockwood Township & the City of Flat Rock which are right on the border of Wayne & Monroe Counties)
Incumbent – Joe Bellino (R-Monroe)
Declared Democratic Candidates: None
Potential Democratic Candidates: former State Representative/Chairman of the Monroe Democratic Party Bill Lavoy (who was reportedly thinking about it but was undecided), Clerk-Treasurer of the City of Monroe, Michigan Michelle Degraer Lavoy, Monroe County Commissioner Jason Turner, 2012 candidate/retired autoworker James Pedersen
Still no movement, though supposedly as Bill Lavoy was undecided as to running again, though he remains an active Democrat, chairing the Monroe county party. It’s also worth noting that his wife Michelle is the elected Clerk-Treasurer for the city of Monroe and is also a fine potential candidate in her own right. Other potential candidates are Monroe County Commissioner Jason Turner and the narrow loser of the 2012 primary to Lavoy, James Pedersen. Note that with the exception of Bill Lavoy, all other potential candidates are “great mentioner” type things.
State House District 19 (Wayne County – Principally Livonia)
Incumbent – Laura Cox (R-Livonia, eligible to run for reelection but likely to run for State Senate)
Dems Running: Laurie Pohutsky (http://www.lauriepohutskyformichigan.com) Facebook (https://www.facebook.com/lauriepohutskyhd19/), Livonia School Board Member & University Official Dan Centers (http://www.dancenters.com/).
Potential Republicans: Livonia City Council Member Maureen Miller Brosnan and her husband Sean have both been discussed.
This district hasn’t gotten easier but Centers campaign has gotten more active and he’s also been helping some of the other campaigns in the area. Pohutsky I haven’t seen as much press on and she doesn’t necessarily have the same support. This remains a tough seat but one that is probably winnable.
State House District 20 (Wayne County – Northern Canton Township, Plymouth Township, city of Plymouth, Northville)
Incumbent – Jeff Noble (R-Plymouth, running for re-election)
Dems Running: Logistics Manager and Army veteran Gary Schlak (https://www.facebook.com/GarySchlackForStateRep/ Campaign Website: https://www.garyschlack.com )
This was a relatively narrow loss in 2016 (around the neighborhood of 53.5-46.5) so it’s worth a look see. Canton has continued to grow, particularly on the northern side and that’s the Dem base in the district (along with the relatively small city of Plymouth). I haven’t been to any of Gary’s campaign events or anything but I do like that he is campaigning on education, the economy, and healthcare. However, I will say that scuttlebutt coming out about the campaign is not necessarily positive and Jeff Noble is well liked in the district (which makes getting negative difficult). I’m not giving up on Gary’s campaign but it isn’t necessarily positive right now.
District 23 (Wayne County – Brownstown Township, Huron Township, Trenton, other Downriver areas)
Incumbent – Darrin Camilleri (D – Running for re-election) (https://www.darrincamilleri.com/)
Republicans running: None known and as of last week there were no candidate committees reported as raising money for it.
This is an important seat as Camilleri was literally the only seat in 2016 that flipped from Republican to Democratic (and only by about 320 votes, in a district that Trump won). Supposedly the Republican Speaker of the State House told him “We’re looking forward to getting you out in 2 years” so this is a priority for them. In addition, Camilleri, the Assistant House Floor Leader for the Dems is a deeply promising, young politician with a bright future so I definitely urge any and all support for him. A huge positive is that, as of the last I looked, there wasn’t even a candidate committee registered with the state to raise money to run against him.
House District 38 (Oakland County – South Lyon, Lyon Township, Novi, the Oakland County portion of Northville, what I believe to be a portion of Walled Lake)
Incumbent – Kathy Crawford (running for reelection)
Democratic Candidates Running: Real Estate Businessman/former IT Professional Joseph Petrillo (Campaign Website: https://electjoepetrillo.com/ , Facebook Site: https://www.facebook.com/electjoepetrillo/ ).
Feeling pretty good about the prior races discussed? Well, this race isn’t one of those. We’ve got a combination of a popular incumbent (Crawford has deep roots in the community, especially working with senior & retired groups…and guess what groups are the most likely to vote?), a challenger without money and he doesn’t seem to be doing events to raise some, *and* a district made up of some of the most conservative parts of Oakland County. However, we do have a candidate and Novi is at least trending our way, so it’s not completely terrible.
House District 40 (Oakland County-Troy, Birmingham, Bloomfield Hills and nearby townships)
Incumbent: Mike McCrady (R-Bloomfield Hills, not eligible for re-election)
Dems Running: former State Department employee & former John Dingell Congressional intern Mari Manoogian (http://mariformi.com/) Facebook (https://www.facebook.com/MariforMichigan/)
Licensed Nutritionist, gun safety advocate, and 2016 Nominee Nicole Bedi (https://votebedi.com/) Facebook: (https://www.facebook.com/votebedi/)
Republicans Running: CPA Paul Taros, Business Consultant/Republican Activist (and member of various non-profit & Mayoral appointed boards) Malissa Bossardet, and Wine Distribution Company VP & Youth Vice Chairman for the Michigan Republican Party Mike Banerian
Well, I’ve found out the Republican candidates running and the “establishment” favorite for the Republicans is probably Banerian though Bossardet appears to have enough fundraising to keep pace (as for Taros, I have no information). As for the Dems, while Bedi lost last time, I’d say she’s a better choice than Manoogian for the simple reason that, until recently Manoogian was living in Washington working for the State Department until returning home last year and Bedi has deeper roots in the district. Though I should say that both Dem candidates can do the job and both appear to be fundraising well enough to compete in the race.
Michigan State House District 71 (Eaton County save the SE portion that’s in District 68)
Incumbent: Tom Barrett (running for reelection)
Democratic Candidates Running: eLearning Specialist & Consultant Beth Bowen (Website: https://www.votebethbowen.com/ , Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/bowenMI71/ ), Marketing Company Co-Owner/Vice President of the Waverly School Board Angela Witwer (Website: http://www.voteforangela.com/ , Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/AngelaKWitwer/ )
This race is on the radar ever since Barrett got elected the first time in 2014 with 148 votes (yep, 2014 was that kind of election for Michigan Dems), though he got re-elected a tad stronger in 2016 with 54%. Having said that, we have two really nice candidates running as Bowen is running an active campaign with education issues as a cornerstone (while also discussing environmental, infrastructure, and healthcare) while Witwer is already holding elected office and also has a full range of issues (notably education also). This is a district that we should be able to win and are in the enviable position of both candidates being potentially good candidates (though I should point out that there isn’t a ton of money having been raised as Witwer just got in the race and Bowen is one of those “doing alright on a shoestring” type candidates). But definitely a potential pick-up with potentially strong candidates.
House District 76 (part of Grand Rapids)
Incumbent: Winnie Banks (Running for State Senate)
Dems Running: Non-Profit Executive & former Director of the Western Michigan Environmental Action Council Rachel Hood (https://hoodforthehouse.com/), Facebook (https://www.facebook.com/hoodforthehouse/)
Potential Republicans Running: Still seeking information, a websearch indicated nothing.
This is a worthwhile hold as it is the more Republican of the two Grand Rapids-area seats (though it should be pointed out that Dems have held this the past few elections) and I’m still seeking information on it. This is looking more likely as a hold as there doesn’t even appear to be a candidate committee reporting raising money for an R candidate. Take nothing for granted but it’s a positive as I like Hood as a candidate.
House District 91 (Muskegon County – Cities of Whitehall, Norton Shores, Roosevelt Park, Montague and numerous Townships, Ottawa County – Moorland, Ravenna, and Casnovia Townships)
Incumbent: Holly Hughes (not eligible to seek re-election)
Challenger: Teacher, Writer, Environmental Activist, and Whitehall City Councilwoman Tanya Cabala (Webiste: http://www.tanyacabala.com/ , Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Cabalafor91st/ )
Republicans Running: Greg Vanwoerkom, a district director for Congressman Bill Huizenga, has a candidate committee and is raising not bad money for a State Rep race in Michigan.
This race is an area that actually is considered a swing seat (and truth be told Hughes had lost the seat in 2012 before regaining it in 2014) and Cabala is a candidate I’ve seen a lot of positive comments about (how rare is it that the comments in mlive story on her announcement were all positive?). It’s an uphill fight but we have won this before and Cabala has roots in the district.
Now the State Senate Updates:
Michigan State Senate District 3 (Detroit, Dearborn, portion of Dearborn Heights).
Incumbent: Morris Hood III (term-limited)
Announced candidates: Wayne County Commission Chairman/former State Representative Gary Woronchak
Filed Candidates that I haven’t seen an announcement for yet: State Representative Sylvia Santana
Potential Candidates: former State Representative David Nathan
This is a safe seat but there has been significant movement on it in the past couple months as Sylvia Santana has a candidate committee that’s raising money though I haven’t seen an official announcement yet (and this action probably counts her husband Harvey out as a candidate). In addition Wayne County Commission Chairman Gary Woronchak did announce putting one significant candidate officially in the race.
House District 105 (Northern Lower Peninsula: Charlevoix, Antrim, Montmorency, Oscoda, and Otsego counties)
Incumbent: Triston Cole (R-Mancelona)
Dems Running: Marketing Manager Melissa Fruge (Website: https://www.melissafruge.com/ , Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/melissaforchange/ )
Not a great opportunity but Fruge is good on the issues and is running at least a somewhat active campaign. I also like her focus on environmental & education issues. Considering we don’t have candidates in good opportunities its worth mentioning and promoting good candidates in less than good opportunities.
State Senate District #6 (City of Taylor, City of Romulus, Van Buren Township, Sumpter Township, Huron Township, Brownstown Township, Westland, City of Wayne)
Incumbent: Hoon-Young Hopgood (D, not eligible to run for re-election)
Dems Running: State Representative Robert Kosowski (term-limited, his district covers Wayne & Westland), does not appear to have a campaign website
State Representative Erika Geiss
This is another safe seat that we have an update on as State Representative Erika Geiss declares and is challenging Kosowski for the seat. We have another race where both candidates are effective and could do the job well. If I had to guess I imagine that the primary will break down on a regional basis with Kosowski’s Wayne-Westland comparing to Geiss’s Taylor, Romulus, and Van Buren Township.
State Senate District 21 (Kalamazoo County)
Incumbent: Margaret O’Brien (R-Portage, Running for Re-election)
Democratic Candidate Running: former State Representative Sean McCann
This one I missed last issue as the race was decided by only about 59 votes (remember what I said about the 2014 election?). However, we have a big Announcement as McCann (said loser by 59 votes) announced his candidacy last month http://www.mlive.com/news/kalamazoo/index.ssf/2017/11/sean_mccann_announces_bid_for.html . Given McCann’s closeness last time this should be given serious attention.