The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● NV-04: On Friday, BuzzFeed reported that Democratic Rep. Ruben Kihuen's former campaign finance director, whom they identify as Samantha, resigned from his campaign last year after he sexually harassed her. After being told about the allegations, DCCC chair Ben Ray Luján called for the Nevada freshman to resign, and soon thereafter, Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi did as well. However, Kihuen has so far not responded to the party leadership’s calls for his resignation.
Campaign Action
Samantha said that Kihuen, who won a competitive seat in suburban Las Vegas last year, propositioned her for dates and for sex even after she repeatedly told him no, and twice touched her legs without her consent. A mid-level DCCC staffer who has since left confirms that Samantha told him at the time that she was quitting because she was uncomfortable around Kihuen. Kihuen's campaign manager also confirms that another DCCC staffer notified him last year that Samantha had quit because of Kihuen, but he says he wasn't told specifics and adds that the candidate denied behaving inappropriately at the time.
Kihuen put out a statement in response saying, "I sincerely apologize for anything that I may have said or done that made her feel uncomfortable. I take this matter seriously as it is not indicative of who I am." However, Luján’s immediate response offered Kihuen no quarter. "Members and candidates must be held to the highest standard," said Luján in a statement. "If anyone is guilty of sexual harassment or sexual assault, they should not hold elected office. Congressman Kihuen should resign." Pelosi herself said that, “In Congress, no one should face sexual harassment in order to work in an office or in a campaign. The young woman’s documented account is convincing, and I commend her for the courage it took to come forward ... In light of these upsetting allegations, Congressman Kihuen should resign."
Nevada's 4th District, which includes Las Vegas' northern suburbs, narrowed from 54-44 Obama to 50-45 Clinton, and Kihuen unseated Republican Rep. Cresent Hardy 49-45 last year. National Republicans have shown some interest in Las Vegas City Councilor Stavros Anthony, who lost a 2015 bid for mayor, but this hadn't looked like a top-tier race. However, the GOP is now likely to give this race a more attention no matter what happens next.
Senate
● AL-Sen: Just how lazy a campaigner is Roy Moore, and just how energized are Democrats to defeat him? The latest fundraising numbers tell the tale. From Oct. 1 through Nov. 22, Moore raised just $1.8 million, while Democrat Doug Jones, by contrast, pulled it a giant $10.2 million haul. That allowed Jones to outspend his rival by a huge $8.7 million to $1.7 million margin, yet despite that spending spree, Jones still has more cash in the bank ($2.5 million) than Moore (only $640,000).
Jones' huge financial advantage has helped him bury Moore on the airwaves 10-to-1, and he has a new ad slamming Moore for a textbook he wrote saying that women shouldn't be allowed to run for office (yep, he really did). However, it doesn't seem to be translating into votes, as two more new polls show the race moving back in Moore's direction.
One survey, conducted by National Research and The Polling Company for a pro-Trump group called America First Policies, has Moore edging Jones 46-45; a previously unreleased poll from these two pollsters that was conducted in mid-November had Jones up 49-41. The other poll comes from Republican pollster Atlantic Media and Research, taken on behalf of unspecified "major donors and super PAC directors," and has Moore ahead 48-40, an improvement from his 43-30 advantage a week ago.
While the exact numbers differ, the trajectory matches what every other recent poll has found. Different theories abound as to what might account for this. One possibility is that the polls taken in the immediate aftermath of the revelations that Moore sexually pursued teenage girls as young as 14 when he was in his 30s may have been too optimistic for Jones because depressed GOP voters simply didn't answer their phones—a phenomenon known as participation bias—even if they still planned to vote. Now these same voters are actually picking up when pollsters call.
Another is that the negative news about Moore came "too early," giving him enough time to recover before Election Day, as ghastly a thought as that is. How could anyone "recover" from something as awful as this? Apparently, in this era of beyond-ridiculous tribalism in GOP politics, such a thing may indeed be possible. Dissenters, however, note that modeling this electorate is unusually difficult: Not only can it be hard to capture the unusual levels of anti-Trump sentiment powering Democrats these days (just look at last month's polling miss in Virginia), this will be only the third Senate election ever conducted in the month of December. However, you never want to be the guy hoping that the polls are wrong.
● CA-Sen, CA-Gov: A new poll from the Public Policy Institute of California finds longtime Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein earning just 45 percent of the vote in a primary matchup against state Senate leader Democrat Kevin de León, a fellow Democrat who takes 21 percent. No Republicans were tested (PPIC says that "[o]nly candidates with significant news coverage and resources were included in this survey"), so as a gauge of the horserace, this instrument is going to be imperfect. But Feinstein's standing is still notable, given her stature: She sports a 51-39 favorability rating, meaning that 6 percent of voters like her but aren't eager to vote for her. De León, by contrast, is little-known, with just a 17-19 score.
The results bear some resemblance to an October poll from Sextant Strategies. That survey did include a Republican (albeit as just a stand-in), but it likewise showed Feinstein looking fairly weak, with just a 40 percent share of the vote (De León was at 14.) A poll last month from USC Dornsife of just a two-way matchup found a different picture, however, putting Feinstein up 58-41, though that survey was not particularly well-designed. So if PPIC and Sextant have the better read, that means de León should have a shot at taking second place in June's top-two primary.
Meanwhile, in the governor's race, PPIC finds Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom with a 23-19 lead on former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, while state Treasurer John Chiang and businessman John Cox are at 9 apiece. (Cox is a Republican while the others are all Democrats.) Newsom has, in fact, led every poll of the race, and his campaign just got a new boost from the mayors of California's sixth- and seventh-largest cities, Long Beach and Sacramento, who just gave him their endorsement.
● ND-Sen: In recent weeks, two potential Republican candidates have announced that they'll stay out of the race. Kathy Neset, an oil field consultant and member of the State Board of Higher Education, said in mid-November that she wouldn't run, though she didn't rule out a future Senate bid. Businesswoman Tammy Miller, the CEO of Border States Electric, also told Say Anything Blog on Friday that she'd stay out. Both women reportedly were recruited by the state GOP to challenge Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp.
Right now, the only noteworthy declared Republican is wealthy state Sen. Tom Campbell. Campbell has been airing ads here for months, but Say Anything's Rob Port says his campaign "hasn't drawn a lot of enthusiasm" from local Republicans. A few others are considering, with Rep. Kevin Cramer sending very mixed signals about his level of interest.
● WI-Sen: Every few months, rich guy Eric Hovde pops up to remind us that yes, he's still considering another bid for the GOP nomination. Hovde told the Wisconsin State Journal that he's "taking certain steps" towards running, but he won't decide until 2018. Back in 2012, Hovde spent $5 million of his own money and narrowly lost the primary to ex-Gov. Tommy Thompson 34-31. State Sen. Leah Vukmir and businessman Kevin Nicholson are already competing to face Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin.
● WV-Sen: Yeah Mr. Manchin! Yeah Science! The American Chemistry Council has been running TV ads in support of several vulnerable Senate incumbents from both parties, and they're dropping $200,000 to help Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin. You can find the ad here.
Gubernatorial
● AR-Gov: So much for that. Just days after attorney Jay Martin, who served as state House majority leader until 2007, expressed interest in challenging GOP Gov. Asa Hutchinson, NWA reports he's told the state Democratic Party he won't run. Hutchinson is the heavy favorite to win a second term, but Team Blue will want a viable candidate who can turn out voters for more competitive down-ballot contests.
House
● AZ-02: Republican Rep. Martha McSally hasn't done much to hide that she plans to run for the Senate rather than seek a third term in this competitive Tucson-area seat. McSally still hasn't made her announcement, and as we always like to caution, politicians can abort their plans to seek higher office at the very last second. (See Trent Franks. Or Jeff Atwater. Or Jeff Miller. Or George Brauchler. Or Ann Wagner.) But if McSally does enter the Senate race, Team Red will be looking for a candidate who can hold a seat that swung from 50-48 Romney to 50-45 Clinton in what's shaping up to be a tough year for them.
The name that's generating the most attention is Lea Marquez-Peterson, the president/CEO of the Tucson Hispanic Chamber of Commerce. Marquez-Peterson, who is close to GOP Gov. Doug Ducey, said last month that she is considering a House bid if McSally leaves. Marquez-Peterson has a reputation as a moderate, which could be useful in a general but a potentially big liability in a primary. Conservative candidates beat the establishment choices in this seat in 2006, and 2010 primaries, only to lose in the general.
Several other Republicans are eyeing this race. Danny "DJ" Morales, a city councilor in Douglas (pop.17,000) outright said he would run for an open seat. Pima County Supervisor Steve Christy also said he'd be open to running but didn't sound incredibly excited about the idea, saying it would be a tough decision because he "love[s] being a supervisor." State Rep. Todd Clodfelter told the National Journal he was interested, and he said that while he thinks Marquez-Peterson would likely "raise a whole lot more money than me," he believed his grassroots base would be a huge asset. Clodfelter also called himself a fiscal conservative but "socially I'm moderate-to-liberal."
Tucson Weekly's Jim Nintzel also recently wrote that, in addition to Marquez-Peterson, the other big contender is Ted Vogt, who narrowly lost re-election to the state House in 2012 and now serves as executive director of the Arizona Corporation Commission. Republican sources also mentioned Juan Ciscomani, who serves as a senior adviser for regional and international affairs for Ducey; Pima Supervisor Ally Miller; state Sen. Gail Griffin; and state Rep. Ethan Orr, though Orr said he'd defer to Marquez-Peterson.
Several Democrats have been running here for months for what they assumed was a bid against McSally. Ex-Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, who left a neighboring House seat to unsuccessfully run for the Senate last year, has decisively outraised the rest of the field so far, and she has the support of the DCCC. However, Nintzel writes that Pima County Supervisor Richard Elías is considering running for an open seat, though there's no quote from Elías.
● CA-25: On Friday, EMILY's List, which backs pro-choice Democratic women, endorsed Katie Hill, a local nonprofit director, in the race to take on GOP Rep. Steve Knight. Two other women are running here: volcanologist Jess Phoenix, who is pro-choice, and former Department of Defense Staffer Diedra Greenaway, who recently entered the race and doesn't appear to have any content related to abortion rights on her website. At the end of September, Hill had $268,000 on-hand, while Phoenix had just $25,000 to spend.
Attorney Bryan Caforio, who lost to Knight 53-47 last cycle, is also running, as is attorney Scott McVarish, whom we had not mentioned before. McVarish, who entered the race recently, is a former head of the Long Beach teachers union, but he resigned in 2008 after a nasty leadership battle. McVarish ran for the Culver City School Board in 2015 and lost; both cities are quite a ways away from this competitive northern Los Angeles County seat.
● IL-01: On Thursday, Rep. Bobby Rush confirmed he would seek re-election in this safely blue Chicago seat. Rush had been quiet about his plans, and there was speculation ahead of Monday's filing deadline that Rush could retire while his son, Flynn Rush, ran for Congress instead of going through with his planned state House bid.
● MI-09: On Saturday, Democratic Rep. Sandy Levin, who is 86, announced that he would not seek a 19th term. This seat, which includes some of Detroit’s northern suburbs, moved to the right last year, going from a 57-42 win for Barack Obama to a smaller 51-44 margin for Hillary Clinton, but it’s still tough turf for the Team Red outside of a wave year. We'll have more on this seat and Levin’s potential successors in the next Digest.
● MI-13: On Thursday, Nancy Pelosi and the rest of the House Democratic leadership team called for Rep. John Conyers to resign over sexual harassment allegations. Conyers' team had said repeatedly that he would not be resigning until Friday, when Conyers' attorney said the longtime congressman would address if he would depart in the "next day or so."
● TN-02: Knox County Mayor Tim Burchett is likely the frontrunner in the GOP primary for this safely red open seat, but this is not a story he wants. Knoxnews.com reports that the FBI has been asking them questions about Burchett "about issues ranging from possible tax evasion to potential bribery and a county contract," though it's not clear if he's under investigation. Burchett later released a statement saying he was unaware of any inquiry until the press contacted him about it. Burchett faces businessman and Young Republicans National Federation chairman Jason Emert and state Rep. Jimmy Matlock in the primary for this Knoxville-area seat.
● TX-27: Late in 2014, GOP Rep. Blake Farenthold was sued by his former communications director for sexual harassment. Lauren Greene alleged that Farenthold, who represents a heavily Republican seat around Corpus Christi, "regularly drank to excess" and told another employee he had" sexual fantasies" about her, and fired her after she complained about him and his top aide. Farenthold and Greene settled for an undisclosed sum the next year, but while the story largely disappeared from the headlines, Farenthold only won renomination in 2016 by a soft 56-44 margin against a little-known primary foe. But the congressman went on to an easy victory last fall and might well have imagined the whole matter was behind him.
Until everything came roaring back on Friday, when Politico's Rachael Bade reported that Farenthold had used $84,000 in taxpayer money for his settlement with Greene. Bade writes that Farenthold is the only sitting member of Congress known to have relied on funds from an internal body known as the Office of Compliance to settle a sexual harassment complaint. In response to Politico's report, Farenthold's office released a statement saying he "can neither confirm nor deny that settlement involved my office as the Congressional Accountability Act prohibits me from answering that question."
Farenthold was already facing another primary challenge, this time from former Victoria County Republican Party chair Michael Cloud, but he had a meager $22,000 on hand at the end of September—though Farenthold himself had only $209,000 in the bank, an underwhelming sum even for an untainted incumbent. But if anyone else wants to take advantage of Farenthold's new woes, they'll have to act fast, since Texas' filing deadline is Dec. 11. And there's an important twist: Texas requires a primary runoff if no one takes a majority, so if Farenthold does pick up a few new opponents, he can't just sail to renomination with a plurality. This seat, which includes much of the Texas Gulf Coast, backed Trump 60-37, so the GOP primary is Farenthold's biggest worry—and it could be a very big one indeed.
That's because there's a whole trove of material to use against Farenthold, beyond even these latest revelations. Three years ago, as Greene's lawsuit was becoming public, the Huffington Post dug up several of Farenthold's old online comments on a forum geared toward frequent fliers that spanned from 2006 to 2010, the year he was elected to the House. Among other things, Farenthold wrote, "I get upgraded. It's my seat. I can give it to my wife if I like, or if I'm traveling alone the hot redhead in 12B in hopes of......" and, "Pregnant wife in [business class] with me in [economy] = waste of 9 hours of free booze. Pregnant wife in [economy] with me in [business class] = waste of 9 MONTHS of my happiness." We also learned around that same time that Farenthold had owned a domain name called "Blow-me.org," which his office said he would not be renewing.
Oh, and there's also that infamous picture of Farenthold in duck pajamas with a scantily clad model from a group called "The Crush Girls" leaning up against him. That photo actually came out during Farenthold's initial 2010 campaign against Democratic incumbent Solomon Ortiz, and it was the first thing that many political observers, including us, ever heard about him. A few weeks later, Farenthold took advantage of incredibly low Democratic turnout to narrowly beat Ortiz in an utter shocker. Republican mapmakers gave Farenthold a considerably redder seat the next cycle, allowing the accidental congressman to win re-election three times.
A fourth win is now very much up in the air, especially if GOP leaders decide to call for Farenthold's resignation. However, House Speaker Paul Ryan has thus far refused to call for him to step down, with Ryan’s spokesperson even sounding dismissive of the Greene’s claims that her former boss harassed and improperly filed her. However, GOP primary voters may not be so willing to tolerate the allegations against Farenthold next March.
● WA-08: On Friday, former Amazon manager Toby Whitney dropped out of the race for this competitive open seat. Whitney was one of several Democrats running here, but he raised very little money. Pediatrician Kim Schrier and attorney Jason Rittereiser each raised a credible amount of cash before September 30, while businessman Brayden Olson entered the race in October. Republicans have consolidates around ex-state Sen. Dino Rossi, who has been a very strong fundraiser so far in this suburban Seattle seat.
Legislative
● NC Redistricting: A federal district court is handling a lawsuit over North Carolina's Republican-drawn state legislative districts, and they are currently deciding on a challenge to the maps Republicans passed earlier in 2017 after their original 2011 districts were struck down for violating the rights of black voters. The court took issue with several of the GOP's new districts in both chambers, and they previously appointed a nonpartisan expert to propose remedy districts. That expert has now published his report along with maps of his proposed districts. The court has not technically struck down the new maps yet, but its actions to date indicate that is almost certain. They will hold a hearing over the expert report on Jan. 5.
These court-drawn districts may end up becoming a reality thanks to the GOP's new maps still maintaining brazen elements of racial gerrymandering. Furthermore, Republicans took the opportunity of the court-ordered redraw to violate the state constitution's ban on mid-decade redistricting when they redrew the lines to protect vulnerable incumbents in seats that did not need to be redrawn to fix each map's problems with race.
Republican legislators will almost certainly appeal any ruling, but the Supreme Court already upheld the order to redraw the 2011 districts earlier this year. Regardless, even the GOP's new 2017 districts are less harmful to Democrats than their original maps, but Democrats and black candidates could win several more seats if the court ends up imposing a few districts of its own. That could make a key difference for Democratic chances of breaking the GOP's supermajorities, letting them finally uphold Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper's vetoes after 2018.
Grab Bag
● Democrats Republicans in Disarray: This is just a remarkable story from Politico. Staffers at the NRSC who used to work for the NRCC used their old login information multiple times this year to acquire the NRCC's donor information—and the NRCC is very much not happy with them.
While the two Republican campaign arms are on the same side, they're often competing to raise cash from the same people. While both committee executive directors deny there's any tension, one unnamed fundraiser tells Politico, "Everyone steals lists, but the fact that they did this behind the back of the NRCC shows they knew they were doing something wrong. The people at the NRCC, who found out about this, are really pissed. They're supposed to be on the same team."