The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● CA-48: While GOP Rep. Dana Rohrabacher represents the Newport Beach-area seat where Arrested Development takes place, there may just not be any more money in the banana stand for Vladimir Putin's favorite congressman. Even though his ancestrally red district flipped from 55-43 Romney to 48-46 Clinton, Rohrabacher doesn't seem to be taking his re-election campaign incredibly seriously, since he raised just $182,000 during the third quarter of 2017.
Campaign Action
Rohrabacher did get an additional $75,000 in restitution from his former treasurer, who pleaded guilty in January to embezzling $300,000 from Rohrabacher's campaign. You'll find that money, as well an additional $14,000, under "transfers" in our fundraising roundup; Daily Kos Elections always separates money transferred from other political committees from the amount raised from donors. Rohrabacher had $600,000 on-hand at the end of September, which isn't nothing, but it's considerably smaller than what many vulnerable House Republicans already have available to spend. Rohrabacher also hasn't had a remotely tough race since 2008, so he had years to build up a considerably larger war-chest if he felt like it. (Though to be completely fair, he was embezzled.)
And unlike most California Republican House members, Rohrabacher does face an intra-party opponent with access to some money. When businessman Stelian Onufrei announced in July, he said he'd self-fund $500,000, and he's so far thrown down $200,000. Onufrei, who raised almost nothing from donors, had $167,000 in the bank. However, it's possible that Onufrei will end up being the source of much Democratic angst over the coming months. In California, all the candidates from all parties run together on a single primary ballot, and the top-two vote-getters advance to the November general election—regardless of what party they belong to. Several Democrats are running, and it's possible that they'll split the blue vote enough to allow both Rohrabacher and Onufrei to make it to the general.
And what of the many Democrats running here? Hans Keirstead, a prominent stem cell scientist who entered the race in June, raised $276,000 during the third quarter. While Keirstead has said he won't self-fund his bid, he also threw in another $50,000 of his own money, and he had $302,000 in the bank. National Democrats haven't formally taken sides here, but DCCC chair Ben Ray Lujan raised eyebrows when he donated to Keirstead in the previous quarter.
Real estate company owner Harley Rouda was the first noteworthy Democrat to jump in back in March, and while he only raised $107,000 for the third quarter, he threw down $175,000 of his own money; Rouda had $373,000 in the bank on Sept. 30. Michael Kotick, a former Nestlé executive who announced in July, only raised $106,000 during his opening quarter, and he self-funded another $131,000, leaving him with $104,000 on-hand.
Attorney Omar Siddiqui, a Democrat we hadn't previously mentioned, jumped in back in July, and while he only raised $67,000 from donors, he self-funded another $256,000 and had $309,000 in the bank. Siddiqui, who was a Republican until 2009 and identifies as a Reagan Democrat, has worked with the FBI and CIA to improve relationships with local Muslim residents. Siddiqui lives in Fullerton, well outside this seat, and says he won't run for Congress in the 39th District because he supports local GOP Rep. Ed Royce.
Siddiqui's law firm is based in Costa Mesa in the 48th, and he says he "spend[s] every day, in to the wee-hours of the night, here," adding, "CD48 to me is what Gotham City is to Batman." However, back in July, Siddiqui was reluctant to say more about Rohrabacher other than he was "somewhat controversial with his ties to Russia." Sorry, but Batman was a whole lot more critical of the Penguin when he ran against him for mayor of Gotham back in the 1960s show. (We didn't plan to throw another program into this, but Siddiqui made it too easy.) Finally, architect Laura Oatman raised just $41,000 and had only $57,000 on-hand.
Senate
● AL-Sen: Democrat Doug Jones has launched a new TV ad that addresses the matter he's best known for: prosecuting the KKK terrorists who dynamited a black church in Birmingham, Alabama in 1963 and murdered four young girls aged 11 through 14. As was so common in the aftermath of white supremacist violence in the South then, the perpetrators escaped justice for decades, but Jones, who was a U.S. Attorney under Bill Clinton, successfully prosecuted two of the killers in 2001 and 2002. In the powerful spot, a narrator briefly sums up the case as photos of the rubble are shown, saying that Jones "got justice for Alabama." Jones himself narrates the rest of the ad, declaring:
We've come so far since those dark days, but we still have a ways to go. I'm Doug Jones and I approve this message because it’s time, Alabama, to stand up for the Constitution, against violence, and for unity. And on December 12th, Alabama can lead the way.
The Jones campaign has also released a fuller three-minute version of this story that is running online.
● IN-Sen: State Rep. Mike Braun, who is waging a long shot bid for the GOP's Senate nomination in Indiana, has resigned from the legislature to focus on his campaign. The one thing that Braun has going for him is his personal wealth: He's already self-funded $800,000 and could perhaps do more. However, money alone can rarely overcome the name recognition and political networks that the two leading Republicans, Reps. Todd Rokita and Luke Messer, bring with them. Braun's best hope is if the two congressmen, who bitterly hate one another (and go all the way back to college!), wind up nuking one another and making Braun look good by comparison, something that happens from time to time in heated primaries.
● ND-Sen: Rep. Kevin Cramer, who represents the entire state in the House, seems content to keep Republicans guessing about his plans for a few months longer. Cramer said Friday that he's busy focusing on his duties in Congress and he "wouldn't want people to expect me to make an announcement for a Senate run before the early part of next year." Cramer also raised just $101,000 for his House campaign over the quarter and had $824,000 in the bank at the end of September, money that he could immediately transfer to a Senate run.
The only Republican who has announced he'll challenge Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp so far is wealthy state Sen. Tom Campbell, who has self-funded $425,000 so far. Campbell, who has already been airing ads, had only $171,000 on-hand, but it sounds like he can afford to restock his war-chest when he feels like it. A few other Republicans are also talking about running.
At the beginning of the cycle, Cramer looked like a top-tier opponent for Heitkamp, who represents a very conservative state. But Cramer has earned some negative attention for some offensive comments, and he's frustrated national Republicans for months with his indecision. All the way back in April, some national Republicans suggested to CNN that they'd prefer Campbell as their nominee, but Cramer seems to think he's still the pick of the litter. Cramer argues that now-GOP Sen. John Hoeven didn't enter the 2010 Senate race until early in that year, so he has precedent to wait.
Of course, what Cramer doesn't seem to remember is that Hoeven kicked off his bid soon after Democratic incumbent Byron Dorgan announced that he wouldn't run again and Team Blue basically gave up trying to hold his seat. Hoeven, who was governor at the time, also cleared the primary field instantly, while Campbell says he won't get out if Cramer runs. However, Campbell argued in September that he doubts Cramer will run.
● NE-Sen: As Steve Bannon prepares to burn the entire Republican Party to the ground, his fellow travelers in Nebraska may try to set some of the unlikeliest kindling alight. Previously, Bannon had reportedly been in contact with former state Treasurer Shane Osborn about a primary challenge to freshman Sen. Deb Fischer, but now News Channel Nebraska says that three other names are "privately … making the rounds": state Treasurer Don Stenberg, state Sen. Mike Groene, and businessman Charles Herbster. None, however, has an impressive electoral track record.
Stenberg in particular has set records for futility with his frequent bids for the Senate. He lost GOP primaries in 1996, 2006, and 2012 (when Fischer won), and the one year he actually earned his party's nomination, back in 2000, he lost the general election to Democrat Ben Nelson. Herbster, meanwhile, is a wealthy cattle rancher who advised Trump on agricultural issues during the campaign and is in fact an old Mar-a-Lago crony. Herbster ran for governor for all of six weeks in 2013 before dropping out and donating an eye-popping $860,000 to a fellow candidate, Beau McCoy, who finished third in the primary. And Groene is in his first term in the legislature, though he did win office in 2014 by narrowly beating a fellow Republican in something of an upset.
None of these potential candidates, including Osborn, has said anything publicly yet. And for all of Bannon's bluster, it'll be difficult to unseat Fischer, who is sitting on a $2.1 million war chest and evidently doesn't struggle to choke back bile when she tries to prove her loyalty by saying stuff like, "I've been impressed with President Trump's administration." Still, her support for Mitch McConnell might be enough to cause her some heartburn anyway.
● TN-Sen: Ex-Rep. Stephen Fincher, a Republican who represented a West Tennessee seat for three terms until his surprise retirement last year, announced over the weekend that he would run for this open Senate seat.
During his initial 2010 campaign to become the first Republican to represent the district since Reconstruction, Fincher reveled in his image as a gospel singer and farmer from the tiny rural community of Frog Jump, and national Republican leaders went absolutely gaga over him. Reports emerged during the primary that, despite his many attacks on the federal government, Fincher was just fine taking millions in farming subsidies from the federal government. However, Fincher decisively won the nasty three-way primary 48-24, and he beat a well-funded Democratic state legislator 59-39.
In the House, Fincher vocally called for cutting food stamp benefits even as he continued to receive farming subsidies, but he never had any trouble winning another two terms. Despite his six years in D.C., Fincher is echoing the same themes from his first House bid and describing himself as a "citizen legislator" who sings in his family's gospel group every weekend.
However, while local voters never cared much about Fincher's government payouts, one powerful GOP group does. The Koch Brothers' political network declared that they'd oppose Fincher before he entered the race, with their anger stemming from him taking those millions in farm subsidies and for voting to reauthorize the Export-Import Bank.
Fincher faces Rep. Marsha Blackburn, who represents part of Middle Tennessee, and Andy Ogles, who leads the state chapter of the Koch-affiliated Americans for Prosperity group. Blackburn had $3.2 million in the bank at the end of September, while Fincher had $2.3 million in his House account that he could instantly transfer to his Senate campaign. Fincher did not discuss whether he would self-fund or not. Fincher also took some shots at Blackburn for co-sponsoring a law that made it tougher for the DEA to freeze suspicious drug shipments. However, Fincher voted for the bill, which passed unanimously.
Gubernatorial
● CA-Gov: In August, Assemblyman Chad Mayes stepped down as leader of the GOP minority after conservatives loudly objected to his support for a high-profile pass cap-and-trade legislation to combat climate change. For some reason, Mayes now says he's not ruling out a bid for governor, though he says it's "more than likely" that he'll instead seek re-election to his Inland Empire seat. Mayes told Capital Public Radio on Friday that, if he runs to succeed termed-out Gov. Jerry Brown, he'd be trying to modernize the state GOP, which he argues is caught in a "death spiral."
It's tough to see someone so despised by the GOP grassroots making it through the top-two primary, though anything could happen in a crowded race. If Mayes runs, however, he could split the GOP vote enough to help Democrats grab both general election spots and lock the GOP out of the general election.
● IL-Gov: Conservative purists seem to be growing ever more angry with GOP Gov. Bruce Rauner, who recently signed a bill expanding public funding for abortion services in Illinois. Dissenters have talked about primarying Rauner over his apostasy, and now one Republican, state Rep. Jeanne Ives, seems to be taking real steps toward a bid. Ives said in an interview on Friday that she was "exploring" a run, and according to Politico, she's also "announced" that she's circulating petitions to get on the ballot. (A bit confusingly, a piece from NBC Chicago published on Friday said that Ives was not yet collecting signatures, but perhaps things changed over the weekend.)
To say Ives would face serious obstacles is a gross understatement: Rauner (who just formally kicked off his re-election bid) has $66 million in his campaign account and can inject more money at will; Ives has less than $9,000. And the Chicago Tribune cites "several GOP colleagues" of Ives' who (off the record, of course) describe her as "not among the most collegial members" of the legislature, which is code for "people don't like her and she doesn't have a lot of friends." But never underestimate right-wing furor, which has wrecked the lives of more than one Republican incumbent (hi, Luther Strange!).
Of course, if Ives were to somehow topple Rauner, it would very likely screw the GOP, since Ives, as a hardcore social conservative, would find herself well to the right of state as blue as Illinois. She also would lack Rauner's bottomless pockets. But even if Rauner wins renomination, he could still get kneecapped by his own side. According to conservative operative Paul Caprio, former Rep. Joe Walsh is considering running as an independent if Rauner ends up as the Republican nominee. Walsh, however, has talked a big game in the past—he claimed at one point that he wanted to challenge then-Sen. Mark Kirk in the 2016 primary but never did—so more likely than not he's full of it.
Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, a new poll from We Ask America, taken on behalf of the local tipsheet Capitol Fax, finds things looking pretty much how you'd expect. Billionaire J.B. Pritzker, who has already spent $21 million of his own money, has been airing tons of TV ads and, as a result, is in first place with 39. Meanwhile, businessman Chris Kennedy is a distant second at 15 while state Sen. Daniel Biss is in third with 6. The last known poll of this race, from back in June, was a Kennedy internal that had him up 44-38 on Pritzker, but with Pritzker closing fast.
As Capitol Fax's Rich Miller notes of this latest survey, though, 36 percent of primary voters are undecided, and Biss in particular seems to be "hoarding" his cash for a late spending spree. (The primary is in March.) But it'll probably be hard to stop the frontrunner if this remains a three-way race, as Kennedy and Biss will scrabble with one another to present themselves as the anti-Pritzker.
● VA-Gov: Republican Ed Gillespie is out with a new ad that hits Democratic Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam for his boss's work to automatically restore voting rights to those with felony convictions after they've served their time. The ad is an extension of the racist thread that has run through a number of other campaign communications from both Gillespie and down-ballot GOP campaigns this cycle.
In 2016, Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe applied his existing authority to restore rights on an individual basis to those who had completed their sentences to grant blanket voting rights restoration to all 200,000 Virginians who met this criteria via an executive order. Just three months later, the Virginia Supreme Court (which is currently dominated by Republican appointees) ruled that McAuliffe's executive orders restoring voting rights violated the state constitution. Since then, McAuliffe has been using a streamlined process to restore rights in a piecemeal fashion, starting with the 13,000 Virginians who had already registered to vote in those few intervening months. As of April 2017, McAuliffe had restored voting rights to 152,000 disenfranchised men and women.
While Northam had no direct involvement in McAuliffe's blanket order to restore voting rights, he's vehemently supportive of the governor's efforts in that regard. Northam has made restoration of voting rights for Virginians who have served their time the most prominent part of his criminal justice reform platform, and he explicitly calls out the racist origins and intent of the disenfranchisement of those convicted of felonies.
Gillespie's new ad not only ignores the racist history of felony disenfranchisement, but it also furthers the systemically racist trope that those who have served their time don't deserve to vote, sit on juries, or otherwise exercise their rights as citizens. Gillespie's attempt to hang a "law and order" lampshade on his commitment to the white supremacy embodied in this policy is only the latest evidence of his desperation.
House
● CA-07: Last year, Democratic Rep. Ami Bera survived a tough re-election campaign 51-49 even as his suburban Sacramento seat was moving from 51-47 Obama to 52-41 Clinton, and Team Red is hoping to once again give him a serious challenge. But businessman and Marine veteran Andrew Grant, who entered the race in July, raised a meh $165,000 during his opening quarter, and he had $143,000 in the bank at the end of September. Physician Yona Barash jumped in during the final two weeks of the quarter and raised $41,000, and he had $40,000 in the bank. Bera has always been a strong fundraiser, and he hauled in $288,000 during the quarter; he had $829,000 on-hand.
It's very possible that some of the issues Bera had in 2016 will just be old news next year. Labor groups were infuriated that Bera voted for fast-track trade negotiation authority, which would have made it easier to pass the 12-nation trade deal known as the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and several of them refused to endorse the Democrat. Bera also got some bad headlines when his father was sentenced to prison for trying to illegally funnel money to Bera's campaign. Investigators concluded that there was no evidence that the congressman knew about the scheme, but that didn't stop Republicans from running ads portraying him as complicit. Bera's eventual opponent may try to reiterate these stories, but they may just not have as much energy after two years, especially if 2018 is a tough year for the GOP.
● CA-10: Last cycle, Republican Rep. Jeff Denham won 52-48 as Clinton was carrying his Modesto-area seat 48.5-45.5, and Team Blue aims to give him a tough fight once again. So far, one Democrat has far more resources than any of his intra-party opponents: Investor Josh Harder raised $229,000 during the third quarter, and he had $512,000 cash-on-hand at the end of September.
One other Democrat has more than $100,000 in the bank. T.J. Cox, an engineer and founder of a local group that invests in community clinics and alternative energy around the Central Valley, raised $116,000 during his first quarter in the race and self-funded another $66,000, giving him $137,000 cash-on-hand. Emergency room nurse Sue Zwahlen and former Riverbank Mayor Virginia Madueno each had only around $50,000 on-hand, while fellow emergency room nurse Dotty Nygard barely registers with just $7,000 in the bank.
Whoever gets to take on Denham will not have an easy task. Denham, who also won in 2012 as Obama was narrowly carrying this Central Valley seat, raised a hefty $561,000 for the quarter, and he had $1.58 million in the bank.
● CA-16: Back in 2014, horrible Democratic turnout and a complacent campaign almost cost Democratic Rep. Jim Costa his seat against Some Dude Johnny Tacherra. Costa beat Tacherra 58-42 in 2016 as Clinton carried this Fresno-area seat 58-36, but weak midterm turnout should always be a concern here. However, Costa is fundraising like he's preparing for a real race, with the incumbent bringing in $243,000 for the quarter and holding $956,000 in the bank. By contrast, during the third quarter of 2013, Costa raised just $73,000 and had $271,000 on-hand. Republicans haven't shown much interest in seriously targeting this seat so far.
● CA-21: Democratic attorney Emilio Huerta, the son of legendary labor organizer Dolores Huerta, ran for this Central Valley seat last year and lost to GOP Rep. David Valadao 57-43 as Clinton was winning 55-40 here. Huerta is running again, but his fundraising isn't exactly going to convince any doubters. Huerta hauled in just $35,000 for the quarter and had $112,000 on-hand, while Valadao raised $216,000 and had $863,000 in the bank.
Democratic turnout is notoriously awful in this area, which stretches from the Fresno area to Bakersfield, in non-presidential years, and that may not change even in a good Democratic midterm cycle. Back in July, the National Journal mentioned a few possible Democratic candidates, but we've heard nothing over the following three months.
● CA-22: Fetch just isn't happening here. Democrat Andrew Janz, who served as a prosecutor in Fresno County, announced in April that he would challenge GOP Rep. Devin Nunes in this Central Valley seat, but his campaign hasn't been raising the type of money he'd likely need to have a shot in a 52-43 Trump district. At the end of September, Janz had only $40,000 in the bank, while Nunes had over $3.6 million on-hand. Nunes became nationally infamous for his scandalous handling of his lead role in the investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election; we'd hoped that Janz would be able to harness rage from national progressives and raise a serious amount of cash, but that hasn't come to pass.
● CA-24: On Sunday, 2016 Republican nominee Justin Fareed announced that he would seek a rematch with freshman Democratic Rep. Salud Carbajal in this Santa Barbara-area seat. Fareed lost to Carbajal 53-47 last year, even as this seat was shifting from 54-43 Obama to 57-36 Clinton. Fareed, who narrowly failed to make it to the general election in 2014, has been raising money for his third campaign for months, and he took in $213,000 during the third quarter of 2017. However, Carbajal has always been a strong fundraiser, and he raised $336,000 during that time, and Carbajal led Fareed $1.12 million to $259,000 in cash-on-hand at the end of September.
Last year, Fareed seared himself into our memory with a truly strange TV spot early in the campaign. Fareed, who recently turned 29, smugly proclaimed that he was the candidate who "cares more about the next generation than winning my next election" because "I am the next generation." The very next shot then showed Fareed riding a horse that came out of nowhere, with Fareed concluding, "We'll talk later." However, despite that weird and kinda creepy ad, Fareed and his allies devoted much more of their advertising to portraying Carbajal, who was a Santa Barbara county supervisor, as a corrupt insider. Team Red also capitalized on an incident where Carbajal called the city of Lompoc the "armpit" of Santa Barbara County.
Both sides ended up spending heavily, but Carbajal came out on top in the end. It'll be difficult for Republicans to beat Carbajal now that he's the incumbent in a seat this anti-Trump, especially if the political climate continues to be tough for the GOP. But Fareed is well-connected and after his last showing, Team Blue should keep an eye on him.
● CA-25: While GOP Rep. Steve Knight fixed his initially weak fundraising last cycle, he seems to be lapsing back into his old habits. Knight raised just $144,000 for the third quarter, and he was outraised by two different Democratic foes. Attorney Bryan Caforio, who lost to Knight 53-47 last cycle as this northern Los Angeles County seat flipped from 50-48 Romney to 50-44 Clinton, launched another campaign in May, and he raised $234,000 during the latest quarter. Katie Hill, a local non-profit director who got in back in March, wasn't far behind with $215,000 raised during the third quarter.
Knight still has more money than his would-be Democratic foes, though, and he likely won't need to spend much in a primary. Knight had $595,000 on-hand at the end of September, while Caforio and Hill had $292,000 and $268,000, respectively. Still, Knight doesn't exactly seem to be in much of a hurry to bulk up his war-chest ahead of what will likely be another tough race. A third Democrat, volcanologist Jess Phoenix, only had $25,000 in the bank.
● CA-39: Democrats have a very crowded primary to face longtime GOP Rep. Ed Royce, whose suburban Los Angeles seat flipped from 51-47 Romney to 51-43 Clinton, but there's no obvious frontrunner here. None of the Democratic candidates brought in much money from donors over the last quarter, with Navy veteran Gil Cisneros at the front of the pack with just $168,000 raised. However, several of the candidates are doing a generous amount of self-funding.
Andy Thorburn, a businessman and former public school teacher who highlighted how he was arrested and jailed in the 1970s for participating in an illegal teachers' strike as he launched his bid, threw in $2 million of his own money and raised another $142,000 from donors. Cisneros, who once won $266 million in a lottery, self-funded $562,000. Mai-Khanh Tran, who came to the U.S. as a refugee from Vietnam and became a Wall Street analysis and later a pediatrician, raised $136,000 and self-funded another $200,000. However, former Commerce Department official Sam Jammal raised $153,000 from donors and only donated another $5,000 to his campaign. Education consultant Phil Janowicz brought up the rear, raising $35,000 and self-funding $36,000.
Whoever emerges from the top-two primary will be in for a tough race against Royce, a longtime incumbent who has not been seriously challenged in ages. Royce brought in a strong $537,000 for the quarter, and he had far more cash-on-hand at the end of September than any of his would-be foes. Royce had $3.46 million in the bank, while Thorburn led the Democrats with just shy of $2 million on-hand. Tran and Cisneros had $494,000 and $486,000, respectively, while Janowicz and Jammal had $141,000 and $133,000.
● CA-45: We hadn't previously written about Democrat Brian Forde, who served in the Obama administration as a senior adviser on technology, but he turned out a strong opening quarter in the race to face GOP Rep. Mimi Walters in this Orange County seat. Forde, who jumped in back in July, raised $469,000 during the third quarter of 2017, and he had $359,000 on-hand at the end of September. Forde, who is a lecturer at MIT, is originally from this seat and moved back in April, and he said when he launched his campaign that he still planned to commute between Orange County and Massachusetts. That's definitely not a common campaign strategy, but it doesn't seem to be hampering his fundraising so far.
Forde is far from the only Democrat running for this seat, which flipped from 55-43 Romney to 50-44 Clinton. Katie Porter, a UC Irvine professor who has Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren's support, raised $162,000 for the quarter, and had $357,000 on-hand. Dave Min, another UC Irvine professor, was close behind with $161,000 raised and $319,000 on-hand.
Kia Hamadanchy, a former legislative aide to Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown, raised $109,000 and had $161,000 in the bank. Businessman Ron Varasteh, who lost to Walters 59-41 last year and lost 61-39 in 2012 in a neighboring seat, has barely raised anything, but he previously loaned himself $200,000; Varasteh had $254,000 in the bank at the end of September.
Walters herself raised $222,000, not incredible for an incumbent, but better than a few of her other vulnerable California colleagues. However, Walters had $1.4 million on-hand.
● CA-49: Last cycle, Marine veteran Doug Applegate gave GOP Rep. Darrell Issa his first serious Democratic challenge ever and lost 50.3-49.7. Applegate is back for a rematch, but despite his very tight loss, two other Democrats outraised him in the third quarter. Environmental attorney Mike Levin raised just shy of $300,000 and had $530,000 on-hand at the end of September. Real estate investor Paul Kerr raised $239,000 during his opening quarter and self-funded another $263,000, while Applegate took in $128,000. However, Applegate still led Kerr $263,000 to $229,000 in cash-on-hand.
Issa himself brought in $288,000 for the quarter, and had $852,000 on-hand. Issa is the wealthiest member of Congress, so we can see some significant self-funding from him, especially after what happened last time. This seat, which includes much of the coast north of San Diego, went from 52-46 Romney to 51-43 Clinton.
● CA-50: While Trump carried this inland San Diego County seat 55-40, Democrats hope that GOP Rep. Duncan Hunter's legal woes will give them an opening. Hunter is under investigation by the FBI for allegedly misusing campaign money, including a $600 flight for his family's pet rabbit. Hunter raised only $67,000 during the third quarter (why more GOP donors aren't rushing to give to Hunter, we have no idea), and he spent $135,000 on legal fees, which is allowed, leaving him with $504,000 in the bank.
Two Democrats raised six-figures during the last quarter. Josh Butner, a retired Navy SEAL and local school board member, jumped in in April and raised $139,000 for the quarter, leaving him with $232,000 cash-on-hand. Former U.S. Department of Labor official Ammar Campa-Najjar, who also entered the race around the same time and who we had not previously written about, raised $167,000 in the last quarter and had $202,000 on-hand. Neither of those are earthshaking sums, but if either Democrat makes it to the general election with Hunter while he's still in legal hot water, they may have the resources to put up a real fight in a tough area.
● CA-52: Democratic Rep. Scott Peters had tight races during his initial 2012 and 2014 campaigns, but he had it far easier last year as his coastal San Diego-area seat went from 52-46 Obama to 58-36 Clinton. So far, Peters doesn't have a formidable GOP opponent in sight for this cycle. Army Reserve lawyer Omar Qudrat, who began raising money in June, had just $47,000 on hand, while two other Republicans had even less. Peters wisely isn't taking any chances though, and he raised $367,000 for the quarter and had close to $2 million in the bank.
● FL-06: Republican Rep. Ron DeSantis has been flirting with a run for governor for months, and businessman and Navy veteran John Ward has already entered the GOP primary to succeed him. This coastal seat, which is dominated by Volusia County, went from 52-47 Romney all the way to 57-40 Trump, but Democrats have an interesting candidate running here.
Nancy Soderberg, who served as a deputy national security advisor in the Clinton administration, raised a strong $336,000 during her opening quarter, and she had $259,000 in the bank in September. Soderberg's only other bid for office was in 2012, when she campaigned for an open state Senate seat over in the Jacksonville area (that seat does not overlap at all with the 6th Congressional District) and lost 62-38, running a little ahead of Obama's 65-34 defeat in the district.
● FL-07: Last year, Democrat Stephanie Murphy unseated longtime Republican Rep. John Mica 51.5-48.5 as this Orlando area seat moved from an extremely tight Obama win to 51-44 Clinton, and the GOP wants to make her a top target. But so far, neither of Murphy's would-be Republican foes are raising big bucks. State Rep. Mike Miller, who has the support of Sen. Marco Rubio, took in $156,000 during his first quarter in the race, while businessman Scott Sturgill raised just $106,000. However, Sturgill loaned his campaign another $100,000, and he led Miller $177,000 to $149,000 in cash-on-hand at the end of September. Murphy raised $313,000 during the quarter, and she had $701,000 in the bank.
● FL-18: At the beginning of October, former State Department official Lauren Baer announced that not only was she challenging freshman GOP Rep. Brian Mast, but she had also raised $250,000 from donors before she jumped in. Navy veteran and labor lawyer Pam Keith is also seeking the Democratic nod in this seat, which is located along the southeastern coast. Keith, who took 15 percent in the 2016 Senate primary, raised just $89,000 from donors during the third quarter, but she loaned her campaign another $60,000. At the end of September, Baer led Keith $237,000 to $89,000 in cash-on-hand; Keith picked up an endorsement from VoteVets, a major group that tries to elect progressives with military service to public office, shortly after.
This won't be an easy pickup for Team Blue. This seat, which includes Port St. Lucie and Jupiter, went from 51-48 Romney to 53-44 Trump, and Mast won last year's open seat race 54-43. Mast also hauled in a strong $411,000 for the quarter, and he had $921,000 on-hand.
● FL-23: Last year, law professor Tim Canova raised millions of dollars for his primary challenge to Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, who stepped down as head of the Democratic National Committee a month before the primary. Canova appealed to Bernie Sanders backers who wanted to take their anger out on Wasserman Schultz over her perceived favoritism toward Hillary Clinton during the presidential primaries, but Canova lost 57-43. Canova announced he would try again this cycle, but his fundraising isn't anything compared to what it was in 2016. Wasserman Schultz outraised Canova $260,000 to $48,000 during the third quarter, and she had a $308,000 to $10,000 cash-on-hand edge at the end of September.
We can't say we're upset Canova isn't catching fire, especially after he spent months peddling a revolting conspiracy theory. Canova has parroted conservatives like Sean Hannity and questioned if Wasserman Schultz had a role in the death of DNC staffer Seth Rich, even though the D.C. police and Rich's family say that Rich's death was the result of a botched robbery. In June, as he kicked off his second campaign, Canova removed a video questioning the circumstances of Rich's death out of what he said was respect for Rich's family, but he then insisted that it was Wasserman Schultz who was "apparently to try to score political points and in disregard of the wishes of his family." This South Florida seat is safely blue.
● FL-26: Over in the open 27th District, Democratic candidates have been raising money like there's no tomorrow while the GOP contenders are barely bringing in anything, but things are a bit different in this neighboring Miami-area seat. Businesswoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, who is the only notable Democrat challenging GOP Rep. Carlos Curbelo, raised $177,000 during her opening quarter, and she had $126,000 on-hand at the end of September. That's not bad, but it's not nearly as solid as we've seen from Democrats this quarter in considerably tougher seats. So far, other Democrats have been quiet about running here.
Curbelo, who has a reputation as a solid fundraiser, hauled in $290,000, and he had $1.35 million in the bank. This seat, which includes several communities south of Miami as well as Key West, backed Clinton 57-41, but Team Red often does very well in this area down-ballot.
● HI-01: It's been close to two months since Rep. Colleen Hanabusa announced that she was giving up his Honolulu seat to challenge Gov. David Ige in the Democratic primary, but so far, not a single Democrat has filed to succeed her in this very blue seat. Civil Beat's Chad Blair suggests that's due in large part to state Attorney General Doug Chin, who could run himself.
Publicly, Chin has said little about his interest in this race, but Blair argues that Chin is "sucking all the oxygen out of the room." In Hawaii, attorneys general are appointed by the governor rather than elected, but Chin has made a name for himself in recent months by repeatedly suing the Trump administration. Notably, Hawaii was the first state to sue to overturn Trump's Muslim travel ban.
However, other Democrats have made noises about running. State Sen. Brickwood Galuteria tells Blair that he's doing "due diligence" and thinking about a bid, and says he'll decide by the end of the year. Back in September, state Sen. and 2014 primary runner-up Donna Mercado Kim and state Rep. Kaniela Ing also expressed interest. Blair also writes that state Sen. Karl Rhoads, state Rep. Beth Fukumoto, and Honolulu Mayor Kirk Caldwell's names "are whispered here and there," but there's no sign whether any of them are interested. Blair also says that state Sen. Will Espero, who won just 4 percent of the vote in the 2014 primary, may be tempted to drop his lieutenant governor campaign and seek this seat again, but we've heard nothing from Espero.
Clinton carried this seat 63-31, but there may be one Republican who could make things interesting. Charles Djou, who represented this seat for a few months in 2010, says he's not campaigning for anything right now. However, Djou noted that he launched his 2014 bid for this seat in April of that year, and he only kicked off his 2016 campaign for mayor of Honolulu in June: Djou lost both campaigns 52-48. In other words, it seems like Djou is keeping his options open and in no hurry to decide.
● NH-01: Maura Sullivan, a Marine veteran and former VA official, joined the race for New Hampshire's open 1st Congressional District on Monday, making her the third Democrat—and the first woman—to do so. Sullivan, however, only moved to the Granite State this summer, and she had in fact reportedly been recruited to run for Congress in her native Illinois earlier this cycle, though she insists that Portsmouth is now her home. Sullivan will face former Somersworth Mayor Lincoln Soldati and Army vet Terence O'Rourke in the primary.
● PA-18: Mark your calendars: Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf has scheduled the special election to succeed disgraced ex-GOP Rep. Tim Murphy for Tuesday, March 13. Under Pennsylvania law, the parties will pick their nominees through conventions rather than through primaries. This seat, which includes part of the Pittsburgh area, backed Trump 58-39, but a few interesting Democrats have announced that they'll run here.
● WI-03: Last year, Democratic Rep. Ron Kind's western Wisconsin seat violently swung from 55-44 Obama to 49-45 Trump, but Kind had no GOP opponent to worry about. Team Red is at least off to a better start this year now that Army veteran Steve Toft has jumped in, though it's unclear if Toft has the connections to wage a serious bid. Kind himself seems to be taking this campaign seriously, since he raised $309,000 over the last quarter and has $2.8 million cash-on-hand.
Legislative
● Special Elections: It's another Tuesday special election in New Hampshire! Via Johnny Longtorso:
New Hampshire House, Strafford-13: This is an open Democratic seat in Dover. The Democrats have nominated Casey Conley, a reporter, while the Republicans have nominated Guy Eaton, who has made two unsuccessful runs for the House. Also on the ballot is Libertarian Brian Shields. This seat went 67-26 for Hillary Clinton in 2016 and 69-29 for Barack Obama in 2012.
