The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
● KS-Gov: Beleaguered Kansas Republicans are about to get a major gift in their struggle to succeed hated Gov. Sam Brownback in next year's election. Businessman Greg Orman launched an exploratory committee on Tuesday to run for governor as an independent, allowing him to begin fundraising. Orman, who is wealthy, attracted plenty of attention when he ran for Senate as a moderate independent in 2014 against Republican incumbent Pat Roberts. Orman became the de facto Democratic candidate in that race after Team Blue's nominee dropped out of the race in order to present a united front against the unpopular Roberts.
Although Orman lost the 2014 Senate contest by 53-43, that result came amid that year's GOP midterm wave, making it a relatively good performance in a state that hasn't elected a senator since the 1930s who wasn't a Republican. Consequently, Orman has the connections and experience to run a much more formidable race than most independents would.
Kansas Republicans have been engaged in a decades-long civil war between relative moderates and hardliners, a battle that has only intensified now that Brownback's extreme tax cuts have led to very unpopular spending cuts to education and other services. Democratic candidates and centrist Republicans have scored major gains in legislative races against hardliners in recent years, which would normally be a reason for optimism in next year's gubernatorial contest. Brownback is even so toxic that he has tried to bail for the low-profile gig of Trump’s ambassador for religious liberty, but even Senate Republicans have stalled on his nomination, meaning he’ll likely still be in office to weigh down the state GOP next year anyway.
Unfortunately, Orman's past campaign will almost certainly make Republicans more closely associate him with the Democratic Party. His moderate positions, as well as memories of his 2014 bid against Roberts, will also make him more likely to split off support that could otherwise go to Democrats than Republicans, particularly if the GOP nominates another conservative hardliner like Brownback.
Democrats already have three notable candidates in the race, including former Wichita Mayor Carl Brewer, state House Minority Leader Jim Ward, and former state Agriculture Secretary Josh Svaty. Brownback's status as one of the most despised governors in America has given Team Blue a golden opportunity, but Orman's campaign will likely take votes they need to win. Making matters even worse, Orman's candidacy could sap the energy from some of those same disaffected moderate candidates who are running in the Republican primary, especially if he can rally support from the business community. That would make it even likelier that another hardliner like Secretary of State Kris Kobach wins both the GOP primary and the general election.
Orman is undoubtedly hoping to sneak through the middle against a weakened Democratic nominee and a hardline Republican candidate saddled with the unpopularity of Brownback's administration. While the conditions for a successful independent campaign are likely stronger than they usually would be, there's still a very good reason why so few independents win elections in America when both major parties vigorously oppose them in today's polarized era. Orman may not formally declare that he's running for some time, but his all-but-official candidacy is a major blow to both Democratic chances of victory and the prospect of restoring sanity to Kansas state government after eight years of Brownback running things into the ground.
● MN-Sen: On Wednesday morning, a large number of Democratic women senators—first individually online, then collectively at a press conference—called on Sen. Al Franken to resign in the wake of multiple sexual harassment allegations. The group ultimately grew to 13, including Washington Sen. Patty Murray, the fourth-ranking Democrat in the Senate and the highest-ranking woman in the caucus, and California Sen. Dianne Feinstein; both were elected in 1992, the "Year of the Woman" that unfolded in response to the Clarence Thomas sexual harassment accusations. Despite the enormous pressure to quit, Franken denied a report that he would resign on Thursday.
Fifteen male colleagues also joined in to demand that Franken go, including Illinois Sen. Dick Durbin, the second-ranking Senate Democrat; later on Wednesday, Minority Leader Chuck Schumer spoke out as well, saying it was time for Franken to depart. Franken took no action in response but his office said that he would make an announcement on Thursday. Franken's fellow Minnesota senator, Amy Klobuchar, who said "[s]exual harassment is unacceptable" but did not directly call on Franken step aside, said she expected him to "make the right decision."
The day's dramatic events were bookended by two new accusations of improper behavior on Franken's part. One anonymous former congressional staffer told Politico that Franken forcibly attempted to kiss her after a taping of his radio show in 2006. The woman says she evaded the kiss, after which she says Franken told her, "It's my right as an entertainer." Separately, writer Tina Dupuy says that Franken groped her while taking a photo at a presidential inauguration party in 2009. "He immediately put his hand on my waist, grabbing a handful of flesh," writes Dupuy. "I froze. Then he squeezed. At least twice."
If Franken does leave office early, Democratic Gov. Mark Dayton would appoint a replacement who would serve until a special election could be held in Nov. 2018 for the final two years of Franken's term. A regular election for a full six-year term would then be held in 2020.
● ND-Sen: Rep. Kevin Cramer has long toyed with the idea of joining the GOP primary for Senate next year yet has been in exactly no rush to make his plans clear. However, he tellingly formed a joint fundraising committee with the NRCC in late November, which isn't exactly the sign of someone who is planning on running for Senate instead of re-election. State Sen. Tom Campbell is so far the only notable Republican running to take on Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp next year in this dark-red state, and he may yet avoid a major primary opponent at this rate.
● VA-Sen: Republicans are already looking hapless in their efforts to take on Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine next year, but their list of contenders may about to become even zanier. The finance director for ultra-conservative minister E.W. Jackson says his boss will announce on Dec. 11 that he's running for the Republican nomination. Jackson gave a red meat convention speech in 2013 that propelled him to the GOP nomination for lieutenant governor, a race he lost in a rout thanks to his long history of offensive statements and crazy positions. So far, the only Republican running is Prince William County Supervisor Corey Stewart, whose neo-Confederate sympathies would likewise make him a disastrous nominee for the GOP.
Republicans may yet land a candidate with more mainstream appeal, however. International-law expert John Norton Moore, who helped create the U.S. Institute of Peace during the Reagan administration, said in an interview on Monday that he was considering running. Nevertheless, given the hard-right turn Virginia Republicans have taken in recent years, it may be tough to beat a firebrand like Jackson or Stewart in the primary.
● WV-Sen: Coal baron Don Blankenship has finally spoken publicly to confirm that he is indeed joining the Republican primary for Senate in West Virginia next year. As the disgraced ex-CEO of Massey Energy, Blankenship is perhaps the single most notorious person in the state after his company's extensive violations of federal mine safety law led to the deaths of 29 miners in a 2010 disaster. Blankenship was indicted in 2014 and convicted in 2016 of a misdemeanor related to these violations, but the government had unsuccessfully sought more serious felony charges against him. Blankenship served a year in prison and is now on probation until next May, which will prevent him from leaving the state of Nevada to campaign in-person unless his probation officer or a federal judge signs off.
A PPP survey from May 2016 found that even Republicans utterly despised Blankenship, with his favorable rating among GOP voters at just 13 percent compared to 43 percent who expressed a negative opinion. He'll have plenty of money to attempt to change the minds of his fellow Republicans, however, and Blankenship has already begun airing ads desperately trying to blame Obama and Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin for the mine catastrophe.
Blankenship joins a GOP primary that includes Rep. Evan Jenkins and state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, and national Republicans will almost certainly do what it takes to prevent someone as toxic as Blankenship from winning the nomination. They won't be lacking for material with which to attack him, but his candidacy could divert major resources that the party's preferred candidate would have been better off stockpiling to take on Manchin. And if Blankenship somehow wins the GOP primary, Democrats would likely jump for joy at one of their most vulnerable incumbents getting to run against someone who comes off as the villain in a cartoon where the hero of the story is a rescue dog.
● FL-Gov: Back in May, eccentric rich businessman "Alligator Ron" Bergeron said he would decide if he would seek the GOP nomination "somewhere around August." We're well past "somewhere around August," but Alligator Ron said this week he was still considering and would now decide in February. Bergeron has been a member of the state Wildlife Commission, but last week, GOP Gov. Rick Scott announced he would not reappoint him.
● NH-Gov: Former Executive Councilor Colin Van Ostern had previously been seen as a potential candidate for governor again next year after just barely falling short in 2016 against Republican nominee Chris Sununu, who is now the incumbent. Now, Van Ostern says he is "going to think seriously about what it will take in order to win in 2018 if I choose to run," which is his most direct acknowledgement of his interest in a rematch to date. Meanwhile, NH1 also reports that state Sen. Dan Feltes is reportedly considering and plans to decide by January or early February, but Feltes has thus far not said much publicly aside from previously refusing to rule out running.
Former Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand is so far the only notable Democrat running here, but his 51-25 primary loss to Van Ostern in 2016 is unlikely to deter candidates who think they may have a shot at the nomination. However, Sununu has posted a strong approval rating in what limited polls exist here, and the poor track record of challengers beating an incumbent in New Hampshire after just a single two-year term could also be a major obstacle.
● TX-Gov: Texas Democrats had been lacking for a major challenger to Republican Gov. Greg Abbott next year, but they gained two of them on Wednesday as the Dec. 11 filing deadline swiftly approaches. The first candidate is Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez, who will now have to step down as sheriff thanks to Texas' resign-to-run law for local officeholders. The other Democratic contender is businessman Andrew White, who is the son of the late Democratic Gov. Mark White. A contest between the two Democrats will present primary voters with a stark contrast over ideology, party establishment ties, and race.
Valdez won her first term as sheriff in 2004 back when Republicans were still very competitive in Dallas County, but the region has swung sharply toward Democrats since then, and she has had little trouble winning reelection ever since. Texas is a big state where it isn't easy for Democrats to build a bench of prominent contenders, but Valdez may start out with some decent name recognition statewide since she comes from the one of the two biggest metropolitan areas in the Lone Star State. Valdez would also become the first open lesbian in the country to win a gubernatorial election if she were to prevail.
Meanwhile, White cuts a very different profile as someone who runs an investment firm. He described his political views as those of a "very conservative Democrat, or I'm a moderate Republican, or I don't care what you call me." White has praised his father's decision to raise taxes in order to save key services like public education during a budget crisis in the 1980s, but his announcement video emphasized how he tries to appeal to "both sides" of an issue. White has said he wants to win over the sort of pro-business conservatives who aren't fully on board with the GOP's reactionary social policies. While such a centrist economic policy platform could help appeal to this type of Republican, it could also be a major detriment in a primary and even deter turnout among regular Democrats.
Valdez likely starts off with the advantage in the primary if she can position herself as more aligned with the party's mainstream. She also is reportedly the favored candidate of state party leaders, while White has never held public office before. Furthermore, as Hispanics have come to make up an increasingly larger share of Democratic primary voters in Texas, Valdez could attain yet another advantage if she can harness the propensity Hispanic primary voters have demonstrated in past elections toward voting for a candidate of their same ethnic background.
Regardless, either Democrat would be a huge underdog against Abbott thanks to Texas' stubborn GOP leanings. Indeed, Democrats haven't won a statewide election here for any office since 1994, the longest such streak of any state. Abbott also had an enormous $41 million in campaign cash at the beginning of July, and he has almost certainly raised many additional millions over the last five months. Although the governor has pursued an increasingly hardline agenda on social issues like pushing an anti-transgender "bathrooms bill," there's little sign that pro-business conservatives are ready to desert him for a Democrat.
Either Valdez or White would need a whole lot to go right to pull off a massive upset here. However, simply having a credible candidate will likely be good for the party by making it easier to energize voters to turn out in more winnable down-ballot races such as the several potentially competitive House races in Texas next year. While Rep. Beto O'Rourke's vigorous campaign for Senate against GOP incumbent Ted Cruz should also help with down-ballot turnout, having Valdez as Team Blue's gubernatorial nominee in particular could help bring her fellow Hispanic Texans to the polls in a way that a non-Hispanic candidate like O'Rourke or White may not if they're at the top of the ticket.
● CA-25: This week, cancer biologist Michael Masterman-Smith announced that he was joining the crowded Democratic race to take on GOP Rep. Steve Knight. Masterman-Smith is the chief executive of a cannabis pharmaceutical company, but it's not clear if he has the resources and connections to mount a serious bid for this competitive seat. Masterman-Smith currently lives on a boat located in Marina del Rey well outside this inland northern Los Angeles County seat, though he says he's looking for a residence here.
● MI-09: Two Democrats, attorney Andy Levin and state Sen. Steve Bieda, announced on Wednesday that they would run to succeed retiring Rep. Sandy Levin in this 51-44 Clinton seat.
Andy Levin, who is the congressman's son and a nephew of ex-Sen. Carl Levin, has only run for office once before. In 2006, the younger Levin ran for an open state Senate seat against Republican John Pappageorge, who had unsuccessfully challenged Rep. Levin three times in the 1990s, and lost 49-48. Levin went on to serve as a deputy and later acting director of the state Department of Energy, Labor and Economic Growth, and he founded two clean energy companies. Rep. Levin sounded excited about his son running to succeed him, though he has not yet endorsed his bid.
Hours later, state Sen. Steve Bieda announced his own candidacy. Bieda is a longtime state legislator, and he does have a potential geographic advantage in the primary. About two-thirds of this suburban Detroit seat is in Bieda's Macomb County base, while the balance is in Levin's Oakland County. Geography isn't everything, and Levin's family connections should help him get his name out, but Bieda could have an edge if he does well at home. A few other Democrats are eyeing this seat as well.
● MI-13: Several Democrats immediately expressed interest in running to succeed ex-Rep. John Conyers in this safely blue seat immediately after he resigned, but the now-former congressman didn't leave any ambiguity about whom he wanted as his successor. On Tuesday, as he was announcing his departure, Conyers endorsed his 27-year-old son, John Conyers III. The younger Conyers, who works for a hedge fund but has never run for office, said later that he has not decided if he will run, but hopes to make up his mind by the end of the year. In February, Conyers III was arrested in Los Angeles on suspicion of domestic violence, but prosecutors did not charge him, citing a lack of evidence.
State Sen. Ian Conyers, the congressman's grand-nephew, announced he would run on Friday whenever this seat opened up. Soon after John Conyers called it quits and endorsed his son, Ian Conyers asserted that these new developments had done nothing to alter his plans. Several other Detroit-area Democrats also immediately expressed interest in running in the upcoming special election, and a few more have since come forward and said they were looking at getting in.
The most familiar potential candidate for readers of the Digest is likely ex-Rep. Hansen Clarke, who served one term from 2011 to 2013. Clarke told the Detroit News, "People have begged me to run for office again for the last year and a half," and that he's "strongly considering seeking public office again."
Clarke's old seat included about a quarter of the 13th, but it's unclear how many of his old constituents remember him now that he's been out of office for close to five years. Clarke's last two campaigns for the neighboring 14th District also didn't go very well. In 2012, Clarke faced fellow Rep. Gary Peters in the primary for the newly redrawn seat. While Clarke represented more of the new district and seemed to have a demographic advantage in a primary where most voters were black (Peters is white), much of Detroit's African-American political establishment supported Peters. Clarke also displayed some odd behavior during the campaign, especially when it came to whether he would debate, and Peters won 47-35.
Peters left the 14th to successfully run for the Senate the next cycle, and while Clarke made noises about running again early, he went silent for close to a year before he announced he was in. Early polls showed Clarke at least competitive, if not ahead, but he didn't raise much money for his comeback bid or attract much prominent support. Southfield Mayor Brenda Lawrence ended up winning the primary for this safely blue seat with 36 percent, while Clarke was a close third with 31 percent of the vote.
State Sen. Coleman Young II also is talking about running here, saying he'll be "making a decision shortly." Young acknowledged he doesn't live in the 13th, but said if he runs "that will be taken care of." Young, whose late father Coleman Young was Detroit's first black mayor, challenged Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan this year and lost by a lopsided 72-28. However, Young's name recognition could be an asset in a crowded race where it takes just a plurality to win.
Ex-state Rep. Rashida Tlaib, whose 2008 victory made her one of the first Muslim-American women to win elected office anywhere, also didn't rule it out. Tlaib said on Facebook that she's mourning the death of her father and "I have yet to process all of the developments during this time of grieving. I will have more to share in the time to come and as I have conversations with families in the 13th District." Tlaib was termed-out of the state House in 2014 and decided to challenge state Sen. Virgil Smith, who had sided with the GOP on some votes, in the primary. Smith won 50-42, and Tlaib decided not to run again after he resigned and went to prison for assaulting his ex-wife. The News also mentions ex-state Rep. Shanelle Jackson as another possible candidate.
● NC-13: Republican Rep. Ted Budd won his first term with ease last cycle after Democrats failed to field a strong nominee, but Team Blue may have landed a credible challenger this time. Kathy Manning, a former immigration lawyer and Greensboro philanthropist, announced Thursday that she would challenge Budd for North Carolina's 13th Congressional District, which went from 53-47 Romney to 53-44 Trump. Manning, who described herself as a "business-oriented moderate," has been active in a number of local Greensboro civic organizations, including as the chief fundraiser for the new performing arts center.
This seat, which includes part of Greensboro, High Point, and several communities north of Charlotte, is a tough target, but Manning may have the resources and connections to make things interesting in a good year. Budd also has never had to work hard to win over swing voters. Budd, who owned a local gun range, ran for office for the first time last year and gained traction in the primary when the powerful anti-tax group the Club for Growth spent $500,000 on ads to support him. Budd ended up winning the 17-way (yes, really) primary with 20 percent of the vote, while his nearest opponent took 10 percent.
Budd had $225,000 in the bank at the end of September, not exactly a formidable sum for a competitive race. Budd hails from a wealthy family, but it's not clear how much personal money he's able or willing to put down if things get tough: During his 2016 bid, Budd self-funded only $50,000, though this proved to be enough to win.
● NV-04: So Ruben Kihuen wants to bring the whole Democratic Party down with him, does he? After Nancy Pelosi and DCCC chair Ben Ray Lujan both called on the freshman congressman to resign after a former staffer accused him of sexual harassment, Kihuen is refusing to do so—and is now claiming that both party leaders knew about the allegations last year but "didn't find anything" and went on to support his congressional bid. Pelosi and Lujan both flatly deny Kihuen's charge, and ABC News says that a Kihuen spokesperson "did not respond to a request for documentation supporting Kihuen’s claims."
While Kihuen won last year thanks to the support of Harry Reid, he just burned every last bridge he had to the Democratic establishment with his reckless charges. Kihuen's promising to make a statement about his future "in the next few days," but even if he labors under the delusion that he can somehow remain in office, he's almost certainly earned himself a primary challenge—and one that Democratic leaders would likely be keen to support.
● TX-05: On Tuesday, with less than a week to go before Texas' Dec. 11 filing deadline, state Rep. Lance Gooden announced he would run for this safely red open seat. Gooden joins ex-state Rep. Kenneth Sheets and fundraiser Bunni Pounds, whom retiring Rep. Jeb Hensarling has endorsed, in the primary. If no one takes a majority in the March 6 contest, there will be a runoff in May.
Gooden, who represents two small rural counties, promoted his ties to East Texas, which may be a wise strategy. While this seat is often described as a suburban Dallas district, only about 40 percent of this seat is in Dallas County, with the balance located in smaller, rural areas. The Dallas portion is by far the bluest part of the seat, so rural candidates may have a big edge in a GOP primary over suburban Dallas politicians. Sheets represented a Dallas County seat until his narrow loss in the general election last year, while Pounds' fundraising firm is based in suburban Garland. However, Gooden doesn't exactly seem beloved by GOP voters at home. In 2014, Gooden narrowly lost renomination 51-49. Gooden avenged his defeat in the 2016 primary, but by only 52-48.
● TX-21: Two more Republicans have entered the race to succeed retiring GOP Rep. Lamar Smith. Chip Roy, who was Sen. Ted Cruz's first chief of staff and has worked for a number of other Texas Republicans, kicked off his bid on Wednesday. The Texas Tribune's Patrick Svitek writes that Roy's campaign is being staffed with a number of Cruz campaign veterans. Jenifer Sarver, who runs an Austin-based communications firm, also announced she was in. A few other Republicans are seeking this 52-42 Trump seat, which stretches from Austin to San Antonio.
● TX-32: On Thursday, Brett Shipp resigned as an investigative reporter at the Dallas-based TV station WFAA and announced he would seek the Democratic nomination against GOP Rep. Pete Sessions. Shipp had worked at WFAA for 22 years, and the Texas Tribune's Abby Livingston describes him as "well known throughout the district." Several other Democrats are competing against Sessions for a Dallas-area seat that swung from 57-42 Romney to 49-47 Clinton.
● Specials Elections: Johnny Longtorso with the recap:
Massachusetts Senate, Worcester & Middlesex: Republicans picked up this seat from the Democrats. Dean Tran defeated Democrat Sue Chalifoux Zephir by a 46-42 margin. Independent Claire Freda took in 10 percent, while Green Party candidate Charlene DiCalogero received 1 percent.
Pennsylvania HD-133: Democrats easily held this seat, with Jeanne McNeill defeating Republican David Molony by a 68-29 spread. Libertarian Samantha Dorney took in the remaining 3 percent.
The Massachusetts race was the first bona-fide GOP pickup this cycle in a contested partisan affair pitting a Democrat against a Republican, though the independent candidate's haul may have affected the outcome. No baseball team ever goes 162-0, though, so it's only inevitable that some races this cycle will go against the Democrats. Far, far more have gone the other way.
And thanks to a colossal GOP screwup, the biggest special election on Tuesday didn't even involve a Republican at all but rather two Democrats. In the runoff for Georgia's 6th State Senate District, attorney Jen Jordan crushed dentist Jaha Howard 64-36, officially breaking the GOP's supermajority in the Senate. Even though this had been a Republican-held seat, the party failed to coalesce around a single candidate in last month's primary, allowing both Jordan and Howard to make it to the second round.
Jordan had the support of a wide swath of Democratic leaders and progressive groups (including Daily Kos), while Howard had been exposed just before the primary for having issued a litany of misogynistic and anti-LGBT statements on social media. Jordan edged Howard just 24-23 in the first round, making her runoff performance all the more remarkable.
This seat, like many others in the metro Atlanta area, shifted to the left on the presidential level last year, going for Hillary Clinton by a sizable 55-40 margin, so Republicans likely would have lost anyway. But this is nevertheless a big win for progressives and will help ensure that Democrats can sustain gubernatorial vetoes if they can retake the governor's mansion next year.
● Atlanta, GA Mayor: On Tuesday, Atlanta held its nonpartisan runoff to succeed termed-out Mayor Kasim Reed, and Democratic City Councilor Keisha Lance Bottoms appears to have won in a squeaker. With all precincts reporting, Bottoms has a 50.4-49.6 lead over independent City Councilor Mary Norwood, a margin of 759 votes. Bottoms has declared victory, but Norwood said on election night that she would wait for military and provisional ballots to be counted on Thursday and would seek a recount. Eight years ago, Reed defeated Norwood in the runoff by 714 votes.
Georgia allows a recount if the margin between the candidates is 1 percent or less, so Norwood is well within her rights to request one. However, it's very unlikely anything will change the results. According to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, there are only 540 provisional ballots and just a couple of military ballots, not enough to allow Norwood to pull ahead even under the best possible scenario. A recount will likely be done by the end of next week, but because almost all the ballots were cast electronically, there isn't much of a chance that anything will move. Indeed, last month there was a recount for a citywide council seat, and the defeated candidate picked up all of one vote.
It's unclear what she'll do if she's still trailing after the recount ends. Just before Thanksgiving, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution released audio of Norwood speaking at a June gathering of young Republicans arguing that Reed and his allies stole the 2009 election from her.
Norwood didn't offer a shred of evidence for her claims when the AJC asked her about them. Instead, Norwood claimed she'd been "really careful about not putting all of this out there for years, because I didn't think this would be helpful "for Atlanta's reputation, and added in a statement that had she contested the election results "it would have further divided the city." Given her refusal to admit she lost by 714 votes in 2009, we'll have to watch and see if she accepts she lost by around the same number this time.
If Norwood had won, she would have become Atlanta's first white mayor since the 1970s, and its first non-Democratic chief executive since 1879. Bottoms, who had Reed's endorsement, led Norwood 26-21 in the November primary, but there were plenty of signs that this would be another tight race. Notably, Bottoms and the other black primary candidates took a combined 51 percent of the vote last month, while white contenders took 48 percent. Atlanta has been predominantly black for decades, but the white share of the population has been increasing in recent years. Most of the defeated primary candidates endorsed Norwood for the runoff, while she also picked up a potentially vital endorsement from ex-Mayor Shirley Franklin, a prominent black Democrat.
However, all of this may not have made much of a difference in the end. As data expert Matthew Isbell's maps demonstrate, the precincts that gave a majority of their support to black candidates in the primary gave Bottoms an almost-identical margin of victory on Tuesday, and vice-versa for precincts that favored white candidates going heavily for Norwood. Norwood did appear to make up ground over the last month, but it seems like she didn't do quite as well as she needed to when all was said and done.