The political world was met with a big story on Wednesday, amid a lagoon of big stories, but it should not go unreported: former Governor of Tennessee, Phil Bredesen (D), is running for Senate in 2018 to replace Bob Corker (R). Why is this big news? Because to be quite honest, Bredesen was the best possible get for Democrats in the state of Tennessee. Previously their only candidate was Iraq War veteran James Mackler, who, while intriguing, has the same name recognition that I do in the state of Tennessee (none). The reaction to his entrance into the race has been mixed from those who are very bullish, like the Cook Political Report, who moved the race to toss up, to those who are very bearish, like Center for Politics, who have left the race in the Likely R column. So what is the impact of Bredesen entering the race? Let’s take a look:
The Fundamentals
The environment of 2018 is going to be pro-Democratic. And barring a stunning change, it will likely be strongly pro-Democratic. It’s just a matter of how strong which will determine the events of the Midterms. Democrats currently lead the RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight generic ballot trackers by about 8 points. My own average has it closer to 10 (I don’t include YouGov/Ipsos tracking polls). Regardless, it’s quite possibly a wave scenario.
That is all very good news for Phil Bredesen. The flip side of the fundamentals is that this is Tennessee, one of the reddest states of all. President Trump took 60.7% of the vote in that state and won all but three counties. Tennessee has not been close at the presidential level since 2000 and became a deep red state around 2008. That aspect of the fundamentals will be tough sledding for Bredesen.
But what about Trump? His approval rating in Tennessee according to Morning Consult in September was 53/42, while Gallup had it over the summer at 52/43. Middle Tennessee State University had Trump’s numbers at 50/40 in the state in a poll they conducted in October. So, as it currently stands, Trump’s approval rating is north of 50% in Tennessee, albeit only slightly, while disapproval is a notch above 40%.
A bit on Bredesen
Bredesen, 74, would become the oldest popularly elected freshman senator if he were to win this race. He started his career as a businessman, selling his company, HealthAmerica Corp., for a large sum of money in 1986. Bredesen then ran for Mayor of Nashville in 1987 and came up short, but was able to rebound and capture the mayoral seat in 1991. He would serve as Mayor until 1999, in between running for Governor in 1994 but was consumed by the Red Wave that was that Midterm election, losing the race. Bredesen ran again in 2002 and won, defeating Van Hilleary to become the state’s 48th Governor. During his two terms as Governor of Tennessee, Bredesen focused on schools and drug abuse, being widely successful in both regards. Attempts to paint Bredesen as a liberal failed and he was able to secure a position as a trusty centrist, leading to his massive popularity. The GOP knew they had no shot of beating him in 2006 and they put up C-List candidate Jim Bryson, who Bredesen demolished, taking 68.6% of the vote and winning every one of Tennessee’s 98 counties. The latter half of his governorship was spent helping the state’s economy before he rode off into the sunset.
Assessing his chances and the impact on the race
Bredesen’s introductory video makes it pretty clear what type of campaign he’s going to be running. He focuses on the opioid epidemic relating to his success on drugs as governor, denounces a broken Washington, promises to work with both sides, never mentions Trump, notes how he never raised taxes as Governor, and sits on his back porch in rural Tennessee while speaking in a quiet voice with lots of hints of Real Americans™. While Doug Jones has run a pretty liberal and aggressive campaign in nearby and also deep red Alabama, Bredesen is going to hug to the middle and reaffirm his trusty centrist reputation. I think that’s a pretty smart idea and is a good path to winning.
Who are the Republicans planning to put up against Bredesen? Well they have a very deep bench but the favorite appears to be US Rep. Marsha Blackburn (TN-07). Blackburn is, unsurprisingly, very, very far right and is an ally of President Trump’s. She was one of only a few elected officials to speak at the RNC in 2016 and will no doubt be tying herself to the president as much as possible. However, her extremely conservative values could be a boon to Bredesen. If he’s running a centrist campaign, he needs to get the Democratic base 100% in line behind him, while picking off enough independents who also vote GOP 9 times out of 10 in order to win. And if he can portray himself as a sensible, accomplished nonpartisan outsider as opposed to a right wing partisan hack, he will have a really good chance to win.
So, can he win? Sure. The environment is as good as possible for a Democrat to win in Tennessee and if any Democrat can do it, it would be Phil Bredesen. I’ve seen bearish people comparing Bredesen to Ted Strickland, Evan Bayh, and Bob Kerrey, who were all former statewide politicians who got dragged into Senate races years after they left office. That matches the description of Bredesen but there are some differences:
- Ted Strickland: The former Ohio Governor ran for Senate last fall in Ohio against Rob Portman and got annihilated. What went wrong for Strickland? He wasn’t well liked. Yes his name recognition was high, but he lost his reelection bid as governor in 2010 and often had approval ratings in the 40s. Bredesen was a two term governor with high approval ratings. Next.
- Bob Kerrey/Evan Bayh: Kerrey was the former Nebraska Senator and Bayh was the former Indiana Senator (and Governor) when both were called into action to reclaim their old seats in 2012 and 2016, respectively. And both lost decisively. Their problems? The baggage from their time out of office. Kerrey had left Nebraska and moved to New York to become President of The New School and was later chosen as the head of the Motion Picture Association of America but couldn’t agree to a contract with the group. Bayh meanwhile had stayed in DC and worked as a lobbyist, with his net worth increasing drastically and buying two multi-million dollar DC homes in the process. In many ways, Bob Kerrey and Evan Bayh were the embodiment of the liberal elite, people who sold out their states to work on the east coast and get rich before returning to their homes attempting to be loved again. It was not the time out of office that killed Bayh and Kerrey, it was what they did while out of office that killed them. Bredesen, by all accounts, has been living his normal life in Tennessee and hasn’t been doing any of the scummy work that Bayh and Kerrey had been doing, so that shouldn’t hurt him.
Additionally, the counter-argument to this bearish Bredesen take is summed up in two words: Heidi Heitkamp. The current Democratic Senator of North Dakota won her seat in 2012, despite it voting for Mitt Romney by a large margin. She also was long removed from politics, having last won a race in 1996 and having last ran in 2000. So clearly, a politician from another era can come and win a senate race in a very red state if they run a good campaign.
Thus, I don’t think that Bredesen is going to suffer a tremendous drop in popularity due to his past days. If anything they should be a bump. The final argument I’ve heard concerning his candidacy is that Tennessee is a much redder state nowadays and that Bredesen is simply a relic of a bygone Tennessee. That’s not really accurate. Tennessee got significantly redder between 2000 and 2004 and Bredesen won his first election in 2002. It got even redder between 2008 and 2012, and in 2010, Bredesen was still a popular governor. A poll taken from 2011, even after the Republican wave washed away the last bastions of Democratic support in Tennessee, still showed Bredesen as very popular and beating incumbent Senator Bob Corker in a head to head matchup, with Bredesen getting favorable ratings of 63% to 19% unfavorable. That was modern day, dark red Tennessee loving themselves some Phil Bredesen, posting Joe Manchin-esque numbers. So while it will be a very tough race, anyone writing off Bredesen should reconsider. I’m torn between moving the race to Toss Up or to Lean R, but I guess you will find out the verdict in my next Senate ratings in January 2018. For now, it seems like we have a dogfight on our hands.