District 67 is being contested by 3 Democratic candidate so far this cycle. The seat is currently held by Republican Jim LeMunyon. This seat was not challenged by a Democrat in the last cycle. LeMunyon got 11,231 votes out of the 11,792 cast.
The precinct count is a little furry, I am relying on two public sources to create the data and they do not match. My best guess is there are 3 Loudoun County precincts and 16 Fairfax County precincts but don't hold me to that.In any case, this district is clearly centered in Fairfax County.
Here is the vote share by locality:
This race is really wide open frankly. 21% participation is pretty bad, so there is a lot of opportunities. Of the 19 total precincts, 10 of them are less than 21% participation. Those would definitely be the precincts to target early on. Of course, a deeper dive on the voter file would be helpful in setting priorities, but those softest areas are a good place to look first.
To see what I mean about wide open, lets take a look at Vote Share by Precinct:
Rocky Run, Waples Mill and Little River are precincts with a lot of opportunity, most of them actually have a lot of opportunity.
Here is a plot of the Republican vote totals in the precincts. This is a pretty narrow range of performance, but the precincts below the line would be where you want to look for support first:
This is just a quick snapshot on some of the analysis that can be done simply based on publicly available data. There is a deeper analysis that can be done for sure.
You can request a file from the ELECT office by contacting Vanessa Archie at vanessa.archie@elections.virginia.gov or at (804) 864-8908. Ask what it would take to obtain the Vote History List for District 88, let her know you are a candidate or working on the campaign if you are a member of the campaign committee.
Let's Turn Virginia Blue in 2017.
Note: My name is Donald Braden. This was posted to my blog on my website The Full Slate Project.