This will be short.
ACHA is headed off a cliff later this week. The whip count rumors are grim. We’re seeing failing hail mary plays from leadership (see this “Manager’s Amendment” which promises some money, somewhere-”fuck it, the Senate will fix it”). Yet, we’re on a freight train headed toward a House vote. If it passes, it will be by the slimmest of margins and seems DOA in the Senate. So we are heading into a best case scenario where the House would yet again walk the plank on an unpopular vote with no results to show for it.
A more experienced, stronger Speaker would yank the vote. We’ll see what Ryan does. His problem is that he seems to believe his own BS about ACHA being the GOP’s only chance at repeal. This leads me to believe he will let the vote happen.
The reasons that a better Speaker would not allow a vote are clear. Ryan, for whom this ACHA vote is the first major attempt to govern (passing bills that Obama will veto does not count), stands to lose a lot. If he loses this vote, what is to stop the out of control GOP caucus from further splintering into warring factions? A failed vote would be a sign that Paul Ryan can no longer impose political discipline on the GOP caucus. For a Speaker, that is a mortal wound. It may take a while, but it will lead to his downfall.
This is also a consequential event in the young Trump presidency. As many of us on the Democratic side recall, a health care bill failure can politically wound a President, throwing his entire agenda into question. Bill Clinton came back from the political grave after a health care failure in the early 90’s only through a lot of work, an improving economy, and triangulation with GOP positions. Also, while Clinton was attempting to claw himself back from early first term setbacks, we had that minor event known as the 1994 midterms.
Trump has backed ACHA unreservedly. This is his bill as much as Ryan’s.
Does anyone believe that Trump has the work ethic or political savvy to come back from a major legislative loss, like Clinton and his team did? Is he suddenly going to find his sense of leadership when it comes time to agree on a tax plan? Trump is a lazy, weak president, with a d-list level political team around him. I question whether he has the political ability to come back from something like this with his approval ratings, being under an FBI counter-intelligence investigation, and his constant Twitter fiascos.
If ACHA fails in the House, after this week, everyone in the GOP is going to know that neither the Speaker nor the President is going to impose political discipline when it counts. It’s hard to understate the political consequences of that.