I think a major player in the Obamacare repeal defeat isn’t being given the top billing it deserves. Commentators are chalking it up solely to divisions in the Republican Party-- that Trump and Ryan just couldn’t move enough House conservatives and moderates to the middle.
As far as that goes it is true. Few are surprised that the conservativeTea Party wing stuck to their guns. They were elected from safe districts with a rigid mandate to never compromise and stay ideologically pure. So their intransigence was a given on the notion of spending tax dollars on social welfare.
On the eve of the vote, Trump would lose if any more than 22 voted against his bill. 15 hard-line conservatives had signaled they would vote no. That left only 7 more votes that could be lost. On the moderate Republican side, 10 said they planned to vote no.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/03/20/us/politics/health-care-whip-count.html
What motivated this moderate opposition? Many were from swing districts or districts which had voted for Hillary. So it isn’t a stretch to assume they were really concerned about what was going on back home. Well, a simple Google search reveals every single one had faced extensive pressure at home, either at Town Halls, or from pressure to hold Town Halls:
IleanaRos-Lehtinen FL-27
http://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2017/02/22/miami-voters-town-hall
FrankA. LoBiondo NJ-2
https://article.wn.com/view/2017/03/05/LoBiondo_defends_not_hosting_town_hall_amid_concerns/
LeonardLance NJ-7
http://www.politico.com/states/new-jersey/story/2017/02/town-hall-anger-hits-nj-as-leonard-lance-faces-the-public-109817
RodneyFrelinghuysen NJ-11
http://www.nj.com/opinion/index.ssf/2017/02/rep_frelinghuysen_its_time_to_stop_hiding_editoria.html
DanDonovan NY-11
http://bklyner.com/congressman-dan-donovans-office-responds-requests-town-hall/
JohnKatko NY-24
http://www.syracuse.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/02/rep_john_katko_explains_why_he_wont_hold_public_town_hall_meeting.html
(“won'tlet the Indivisible movement ‘hijack service to my district ordisrupt meaningful engagement with my constituents.’”)
DavidJoyce OH-14
http://www.cleveland.com/metro/index.ssf/2017/02/district_14_town_hall_misses_r.html
CharlieDent PA-15
http://www.pennlive.com/news/2017/02/republicans_town_hall_meeting.html
BarbaraComstock VA-10
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/02/barbara-comstock-no-attend-weekend-town-hall-234490
JaimeHerrera Beutler WA-3
http://www.thereflector.com/news/article_f328a4c8-e297-11e6-9deb-732d254437a4.html
So tell me the organized resistance by energized Democrats back home didn’t get into these member’s heads and influence their votes. Indivisible groups, and allied movements, were at the forefront of these efforts. We need to give them credit.
Back when the Tea Party was gaining steam, every time they fielded a hand-full of people with signs it was national news. (The Tea Party is Coming.”) This exposure was orchestrated and had a lot to do with the power they developed.
Now we have Indivisible pulling off one of the biggest legislative coups in recent times, and they get nary a mention. Why? My guess it is because, unlike the Tea Party, Inadvisable is a genuine grass roots movement. The Tea Party had big money donors behind the curtain organizing and funding the effort. Funding for PR comes with this kind of backing-- they got the word out. Although Indivisible has no similar deep-pockets behind it, we need to get the word out to create the same kind of aura of inevitability the Tea Party got. This is politics 101.