I just ran the numbers as best I could for the changes in health insurance with the new House plan, approved we are told by Donald Trump. This comes from data on the Kaiser Family Foundation site combined with information from reading the proposed bill. Of course, things will change, but this gives a pretty good idea of how much harder it will be for older people, especially those between 50 and 65 (when Medicare kicks in) to afford insurance. It also shows some benefits for younger people.
To cover all of the ins and outs would take way too long a diary, but I tried to develop a table with some of the information. After an hour of doing this, I found that the Kaiser Family Foundation had put up much of the information in a different format that covered every county in the country.
Here’s the table — some discussion of what I think it means below:
Single person insurance cost - Bend OR
Income |
64 years old
Trump
|
64 YEars old
ACA
|
45 Years old
TRUMP
|
45 Years old
ACA
|
25 Years old
TRUMP
|
25 Years old
ACA
|
$25,000 |
$8864 |
$1701 |
$3192 |
$1701 |
$2305 |
$1701 |
$35,000 |
$8864 |
$3336 |
$3192 |
$3336 |
$2305 |
$3336 |
$45,000 |
$8864 |
$4361 |
$3192 |
$4361 |
$2305 |
$4305 |
$75,000 |
$8864 |
$12864 |
$3192 |
$6192 |
$2305 |
$4305 |
So,
- If you make $25,000 you are better off no matter what under the ACA.
- If you are old and poor the Trump plan will cost you $7100 more a year. That’s with current premiums. But the new plan also lets insurance companies charge 5 times as much for older people as is charged for young people (The allowed ratio is now 3 times as much). So premiums will probably increase further.
- If you are 25 and making $35,000 or more, you will pay less under the new plan.
- If you are making $75,000 you will pay a lot less under the Trump plan.
This is all based on a rough application of the plan that came out yesterday. Obviously, much will change. But these calculations did show me the problems with the ACA as well as the terrible implications of the Trump/House plan. The ACA cost young people the same as older people, even though they have fewer health problems. This is because it paid a subsidy to keep health insurance costs under 10% of income and didn’t take age into consideration.
The Trump plan doesn’t take income into consideration. The tax credit you receive is based on age, not income. It ranges from $2000 to$4000 depending on age. It is phased out for high income people.
This doesn't even touch on the devastating plans for medicaid that will throw even more people off health care coverage.
It seems that the Republicans may be hoping to get this passed partly by lowering premiums for many young to middle age people. As I look at the ACA premiums, some relief in this area would be appropriate. BUT the costs for poor people and seniors would be much higher in many cases.
I chose to look at Bend because it is in Greg Walden’s district — the only Oregon Republican In Congress and one of the architects of the current bill.
We have to ask Republicans to compare real people and how this will affect them. I anxiously await the report of the Congressional Budget Office.
Thank you for thinking about this with me. I am sad, angry, and wanting to find ways to fight it. I welcome discussion, corrections or additions.