Leading Off
● AL-Sen, AL-Gov: After Jeff Sessions resigned from the Senate to become Donald Trump's attorney general in February, then-Gov. Robert Bentley appointed fellow Republican Luther Strange to fill the seat. Bentley subsequently set the special election for November 2018 to fill the remainder of Sessions' term, meaning the winner would face another election for a full six-year term in 2020. Alabama Political Reporter now relays that newly-minted Republican Gov. Kay Ivey is considering moving up the special election date to 2017, especially with the new governor's office facing an existing lawsuit over the election timing. Secretary of State John Merrill, another Republican, says that if Ivey wants to hold the special this year, she needs to make her proclamation by May 11 or 12.
Campaign Action
Many Alabama Republicans are quite upset at how Strange's appointment unfolded, and they have good reason to be. Bentley was facing near-certain impeachment over allegations of abusing his power to conceal an affair with a top staffer, and he finally resigned on Monday as part of a plea deal.
As the state's attorney general, Strange had sent a letter to the legislature just before last Election Day imploring it to desist in their investigation into Bentley "until I am able to report to you that the necessary related work of my office has been completed." Legislators complied, seeing as they believed Strange was conducting his own investigation.
However, after Trump's presidential victory and nomination of Sessions to become his attorney general, Strange belatedly claimed in December that he never actually said he was looking into the governor, lest he look shady for coveting a Senate appointment from someone he was supposedly investigation. Once Bentley appointed Strange, his replacement as state attorney general confirmed that, oh yeah, Strange's office had been investigating Bentley all along, which Strange later conceded was true.
This ordeal angered legislators so much that it reportedly triggered their renewed push to impeach Bentley, an effort which had previously appeared to have lost steam after the scandal initially blew up earlier in 2016. Incredibly, some Republican lawmakers have even claimed that Bentley himself told them that his motivation for appointing Strange to the Senate was because he thought Strange was corrupt and wanted him out of the attorney general's office.
The whole affair has left the appointed senator quite vulnerable to a potential primary challenge in this deep-red state. Possible opponents understandably would prefer to face a special primary election sometime over the next few months while the fallout from Bentley's scandal is still fresh, rather than wait more than a full year until the regularly scheduled primary in June of 2018, which would give Strange more time to benefit from his incumbency and for the scandal to fade.
While no Republican candidates have announced a campaign against Strange yet, the less-tainted Ivey's ascension to the governor's office could very well cause some of those who were looking at running for what was supposed to be an open governor's race in 2018 to reconsider which office to seek. Indeed, state Senate President Pro Tem Del Marsh has been considering either race, and he and others might figure they would have an easier shot running against a senator deeply tied to Bentley's troubles than a governor who had been separately elected to the lieutenant governor's office instead of on a ticket with Bentley.
Senate
● AZ-Sen, AZ-09: Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema hauled in an impressive $677,000 in the first quarter, leaving her with $2.8 million on hand. That's likely far more than she would need to hold down her blue-leaning suburban Phoenix House seat, where she hasn't had a close race since her initial 2012 election. Sinema has long been viewed as a potential challenger to Republican Sen. Jeff Flake in 2018, although she hasn't said anything publicly about whether she is interested in running for Senate or not. However, strong fundraising numbers like this would leave her in a solid starting position if she does decide to seek a promotion next year. No other notable Democratic politicians have shown any public interest in running yet.
● IN-Sen: Andrew Takami just became the latest Republican to announce a challenge to Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly, who is likely one of the most imperiled Democratic senators seeking re-election in 2018. Takami is the director of Purdue University Polytechnic's New Albany branch in southern Indiana, but it's unclear if his connections in the world of higher education will be sufficient for the novice candidate to run such a demanding race. Although Donnelly has yet to draw a better-known Republican challenger, GOP Reps. Todd Rokita and Luke Messer are both openly considering whether to run.
● ND-Sen: After Donald Trump carried North Dakota in a 63-27 landslide, Republicans are itching to deny Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp a second term, but the field to challenge her has been slow to develop. As the state's lone House member, Trump-like Republican Rep. Kevin Cramer is an obvious option. However, in a recent interview with National Journal, he doesn't sound too enthused about the possibility. Cramer says the Senate "looks more like a transition to retirement to me … There's a lot about the Senate that doesn't appeal to me … and that's a pretty significant consideration."
Cramer further states that he might not decide about a campaign until a few more months, but likely before the end of 2017. That hesitancy has some Republicans worried that it could freeze the field of other challengers, who might delay jumping into the race for fear of being squeezed out if a bigger fish gets into the pond. Indeed, GOP state Sen. Tom Campbell is reportedly interested in running for Senate, but only if Cramer doesn't run, while state Rep. Rick Becker is also considering running.
● PA-Sen, PA-Gov: Wealthy businessman Paul Addis had previously been considering running for the Republican nomination for either governor or Senate in 2018, but he recently told PoliticsPA that he has decided just to focus on the Senate and "will make a final decision in the near future" about whether to run or not. However, the former energy executive might have trouble winning a Republican primary after his opposition to Trump led him to vote for a write-in during the 2016 presidential race. Republican state Reps. Jim Christiana and Rick Saccone are both already in the race against Democratic Sen. Bob Casey, while U.S. Rep. Mike Kelly is still mulling it over.
Gubernatorial
● GA-Gov: On Wednesday, Columbus Mayor Teresa Tomlinson confirmed that she was considering running for governor as a Democrat, although she is also looking at a bid for secretary of state. The contest to succeed term-limited Republican Gov. Nathan Deal in 2018 has drawn heated interest from both parties, and would represent Democrats' best chance to break the GOP's grip on power in a state where Team Blue hasn't won a governor's race since 1998. Other Democrats seen as possible candidates include state House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams, state Rep. Stacey Evans, and ex-state Sen. Jason Carter, who was the party's 2014 nominee.
● ME-Gov: On Tuesday, Republican Sen. Susan Collins gave her most concrete statement yet about how she is indeed considering running to succeed term-limited GOP Gov. Paul LePage in 2018, and she additionally revealed that she probably would not reach a decision about running until fall. Collins' delay could end up deterring other potential gubernatorial contenders from finalizing their plans too, since she's likely by far the most prominent potential candidate who might run, and the popular longtime senator could scare away lesser-known opponents if she goes through with it.
As of right now, state Senate Majority Leader Garrett Mason, ex-state House Minority Leader Josh Tardy, state party chair Rick Bennett, and state Sen. Roger Katz have all said that they're debating whether to launch a campaign for the Republican nomination. State Department of Health and Human Services Commissioner Mary Mayhew, a LePage ally, is also reportedly thinking about it. For Team Blue, state Senate Minority Leader Justin Alfond, Secretary of State Matthew Dunlap, state Attorney General Janet Mills, and several businessmen are all considering the race.
House
● GA-06: Thanks to her prior name recognition, ex-Secretary of State Karen Handel is the ostensible frontrunner among the Republican field for the potential second runoff spot against Democrat Jon Ossoff in the April 18 special election, and now she is the subject of two new GOP ads. The Republican super PAC Ending Spending is up with a new ad featuring former GOP Sen. Saxby Chambliss, who urges voters to support Handel, calling her the "clear conservative choice." Meanwhile, Dan Moody hits Handel for frequently running for different offices, claiming she's only in it for her own personal benefit. Handel ran for governor in 2010 and narrowly lost the primary to eventual-Gov. Nathan Deal, and she took a close third in the 2014 Senate primary.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and James Lambert.
