Thanks to a pointless volley of expensive bombs, Donald Trump’s job approval rating has risen six whole points in Rasmussen’s polling data.
As many of you know, Rasmussen is a pollster that was created to generate good news for Republicans. While they use legitimate scientific polling techniques, they do tend to structure their polls so that they skew right of the average, and their polling has a spotty record of predicting election outcomes. 538 gives them a C+.
Nevertheless, I like to look at their poll numbers to maintain an apples-to-apples comparison, and because their poll numbers are usually the best you could possible get from Trump and other Republicans. It’s fun to find the worst news you can, but when the “best possible” is still bad, that’s very telling. And Trump’s numbers are still bad. Just better bad.
One thing that Rasmussen does which I like is that they calculate approval as the difference between strong approval and disapproval. This measures a “partisan divide” and shows you the sentiment among people who really care about Trump’s job performance. By typical measurements, Trump has a tepid -4%, up from a dismal -14% on April 4th.
Using Rasmussen’s method, Trump has shot up to a pathetic -13% from a tragic -19%. Quite a nice bump from that bombing, right? Well, maybe not. What’s interesting is that only 1% of that gain is from people moving into “strongly approve.” That number has been hovering between 27% and 29% for a little white. Mainly he gained because 5% fewer people “strongly dislike” Donald Trump. It looks like some of the people who strongly disapproved of Trump now approve — just not strongly. This, like most Trump victories appears to be something with no staying power. Perhaps he’s intending to cement his gains with more bombing.
Now, according to CNN:
Officials said the target was an ISIS cave and tunnel complex and personnel in the Achin district of the Nangarhar province.
While everyone is marveling at the power of this huge bomb, please note that it is a "Massive Air Blast" device that does little damage to targets below the surface.
We won't really know whether it achieved its actual objective of raising Trump's poll numbers until early next week.