Eight-term California Republican Rep. Devin Nunes has always won his House races with at least 62 percent of the vote, but after Nunes’ scandalous handling of his lead role in the investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election, he has turned himself into a boogeyman for Democrats nationwide. On Tuesday, Fresno County District Attorney’s office prosecutor Andrew Janz announced his intent to challenge Nunes in 2018. Janz has never run for office before, but his ties to the legal community mean he might have the connections needed to wage a serious campaign.
The Fresno-area 22nd District has long been hostile to Democrats. Donald Trump’s won it by 52-43, but that margin was nonetheless a sizable drop from Mitt Romney’s 57-42 victory in 2012. The seat has a substantial Hispanic population, but like other Central Valley districts, that Democratic-leaning demographic typically sees an especially sharp drop in turnout between presidential elections and midterms (relatedly, despite a common misconception, Nunes isn’t Hispanic, but of Portuguese descent). While there’s no sign that Nunes is particularly vulnerable yet in 2018, if Trump sparks a backlash against downballot Republicans and Democrats can gain traction by over the Russia investigation debacle, the incumbent could face his stiffest re-election battle yet.