Yesterday on NPR there was an interview with Mexican Sen. Armando Ríos Piter. There was a short part of the interview where the Senator discussed the possibility of Mexicans targeting Trump voters by boycotting US corn.
Would that work?
According to US Department of Agriculture Foreign Agriculture Service, Mexico accounts for approximately 37% of US corn exports. About 13% of US corn is exported. So if my math is correct about 4% of US corn is exported to Mexico. I haven’t worked with economic elasticity for a long while but it seems that a 4% decrease in demand would soften prices considerably.
So how closely does corn production correlate with Trump voters.Here is a map of US Corn Production. Here is a map by county of the 2016 election results. It isn’t a perfect overlay, but it is a pretty good swat at a lot of areas that Trump won.
If it is a boycott by Mexicans and Mexican companies, I doubt that the US would have much recourse in international bodies.
But since corn has a target price, it would probably trigger USDA Loan Deficiency payments. So the tool that on the surface looks like it would impact Trump voters, would have its impact blunted by the government that those same voters like to complain about.