On Wednesday, Republican Rep. Tom MacArthur at least temporarily shocked Trumpcare back to life when he introduced an amendment to make the bill palatable to the nihilistic Freedom Caucus, and it’s a doozy: MacArthur’s alteration would permit states to seek waivers to allow insurance companies to deny coverage to people with pre-existing conditions.
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Most Republicans in swingy House districts, however, seem to recognize that voting for such a law would be politically toxic, so it may come as a surprise to learn that MacArthur is in fact a member of the supposedly pragmatic Tuesday Group and doesn’t exactly represent a rock-ribbed Republican seat. Indeed, Trump carried New Jersey’s 3rd Congressional District, which is located along the southern coast, 51-45, while Obama won it 52-47 in 2012. MacArthur won last year against a weak Democratic opponent, but he may be attracting someone much stronger this time around.
On Thursday, national security expert Andrew Kim, who was the National Security Council’s direct for Iraq under Obama and advised Gen. David Petraeus in Afghanistan, said he was interested in running. In addition to hitting MacArthur on Trumpcare, Kim noted that he was the Obama administration’s point man in 2014 as ISIS was gaining ground in Iraq, and Kim says he helped coordinate airstrikes and humanitarian relief. Unsurprisingly, MacArthur’s team responded by suggesting that Kim had failed to take ISIS seriously.
Whether it’s Kim or someone else, whoever runs against MacArthur will face a number of challenges. Democrats have had a very tough time winning this ancestrally red seat: While the late Democrat John Adler broke the GOP’s long hold on a previous version of this district in 2008, he quickly lost it in the 2010 wave, and subsequent attempts to win it back have been unsuccessful.
It doesn’t help that this district may be the most expressive in the nation to advertise in.
About 57 percent of the 3rd is in the expensive Philadelphia media market, while the balance is in the very expensive New York City market. Meanwhile, MacArthur is incredibly wealthy and money won’t be an issue for him, but his eventual Democratic opponent may not have that advantage. In order to have a shot, the Democratic nominee will need help from outside groups, who may or may not decide that MacArthur is vulnerable enough to invest the massive amounts of money they’d need to get their ads seen.
New Jersey’s old-school political machine culture also presents another obstacle. In 2014, when national Democrats were seriously targeting the 3rd—at the time an open seat—local Democrats insisted on diverting resources to the safely blue 1st District right next door, which was also open. Why the seemingly bizarre move? In the 1st, the Democratic nominee was Donald Norcross, who just happened to be the brother of George Norcross, a secretive but immensely powerful political boss that Philadelphia Magazine dubbed “the lord of South Jersey.” Donald Norcross didn’t need the help—he won easily—but George wanted it, and George got it.
So if the Norcrosses aren’t on board, it could be hard for a Democratic challenger to gain traction next year. However, MacArthur may have just kicked over a hornet’s nest large enough to endanger his re-election no matter what the Jersey bosses do, especially if 2018 continues to shape up as an unfavorable year for the GOP.
House Republicans are hell-bent on ripping away our health insurance. Call your member of Congress at 202-224-3121, and demand they vote NO on a renewed Trumpcare that is worse than the one before. Remind them they work for you.